7,432 research outputs found

    TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report

    Get PDF
    Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a “global water crisis”; in many countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society and economies. One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 “Hydrological modelling and extremes” was formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on “Pollution pressure and impact analysis” and WP8 on “Change effects and vulnerability assessment”. With an emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called “Hydrological modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstraction”. However, at the TWINLATIN kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8, and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes. The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are

    Water models and scenarios inventory for the Danube region

    Get PDF
    This technical report presents an inventory of existing models currently used in the Danube Region by local, regional, national authorities and scientific institutes for the development of a hydro-economic multi-model ensemble for the Danube with a common database. It also presents a first identification of regional scenarios of policy options relevant for river basin management planning.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

    A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

    Get PDF
    The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

    Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas

    Get PDF
    This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22° (about 24 km) rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010) we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS) data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic) uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region

    Water Resources Management and Modeling

    Get PDF
    Hydrology is the science that deals with the processes governing the depletion and replenishment of water resources of the earth's land areas. The purpose of this book is to put together recent developments on hydrology and water resources engineering. First section covers surface water modeling and second section deals with groundwater modeling. The aim of this book is to focus attention on the management of surface water and groundwater resources. Meeting the challenges and the impact of climate change on water resources is also discussed in the book. Most chapters give insights into the interpretation of field information, development of models, the use of computational models based on analytical and numerical techniques, assessment of model performance and the use of these models for predictive purposes. It is written for the practicing professionals and students, mathematical modelers, hydrogeologists and water resources specialists

    Enhancing Operational Flood Detection Solutions through an Integrated Use of Satellite Earth Observations and Numerical Models

    Get PDF
    Among natural disasters floods are the most common and widespread hazards worldwide (CRED and UNISDR, 2018). Thus, making communities more resilient to flood is a priority, particularly in large flood-prone areas located in emerging countries, because the effects of extreme events severely setback the development process (Wright, 2013). In this context, operational flood preparedness requires novel modeling approaches for a fast delineation of flooding in riverine environments. Starting from a review of advances in the flood modeling domain and a selection of the more suitable open toolsets available in the literature, a new method for the Rapid Estimation of FLood EXtent (REFLEX) at multiple scales (Arcorace et al., 2019) is proposed. The simplified hydraulic modeling adopted in this method consists of a hydro-geomorphological approach based on the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model (Nobre et al., 2015). The hydraulic component of this method employs a simplified version of fluid mechanic equations for natural river channels. The input runoff volume is distributed from channel to hillslope cells of the DEM by using an iterative flood volume optimization based on Manning\u2019s equation. The model also includes a GIS-based method to expand HAND contours across neighbor watersheds in flat areas, particularly useful in flood modeling expansion over coastal zones. REFLEX\u2019s flood modeling has been applied in multiple case studies in both surveyed and ungauged river basins. The development and the implementation of the whole modeling chain have enabled a rapid estimation of flood extent over multiple basins at different scales. When possible, flood modeling results are compared with reference flood hazard maps or with detailed flood simulations. Despite the limitations of the method due to the employed simplified hydraulic modeling approach, obtained results are promising in terms of flood extent and water depth. Given the geomorphological nature of the method, it does not require initial and boundary conditions as it is in traditional 1D/2D hydraulic modeling. Therefore, its usage fits better in data-poor environments or large-scale flood modeling. An extensive employment of this slim method has been adopted by CIMA Research Foundation researchers for flood hazard mapping purposes over multiple African countries. As collateral research, multiple types of Earth observation (EO) data have been employed in the REFLEX modeling chain. Remotely sensed data from the satellites, in fact, are not only a source to obtain input digital terrain models but also to map flooded areas. Thus, in this work, different EO data exploitation methods are used for estimating water extent and surface height. Preliminary results by using Copernicus\u2019s Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-3 radar altimetry data highlighted their potential mainly for model calibration and validation. In conclusion, REFLEX combines the advantages of geomorphological models with the ones of traditional hydraulic modeling to ensure a simplified steady flow computation of flooding in open channels. This work highlights the pros and cons of the method and indicates the way forward for future research in the hydro-geomorphological domain

    Modelling flash flood using LiDAR and high resolution satellite imagery: a case study of West Creek, Toowoomba

    Get PDF
    Australia is one of the most heavily exposed countries in the world to different natural hazards, such as floods. In December 2010 and January 2011, large areas of the south and central Queensland were affected by flooding. On Monday 10th January 2011 heavy rains continued from 12:30 pm to 2:00 pm in the City of Toowoomba catchment area. Flash flooding occurred suddenly and unexpectedly making it difficult to prevent or predict before it occurred. This led to a rise in water levels in streets and roads, disrupting traffic and causing loss of life and properties. To reduce the effect of flood disasters and minimize the damages, flood inundation maps can be used to determine the locations of threat. This research used an integration of the HEC-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), HEC-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop an improved model of the West Creek flood extent and flood event in the city of Toowoomba. The flood extent and depth in the different flow conditions of the West Creek channel was described in this study. The Hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) was used for 15 minutes time series data to create the flow rate at West Creek catchment from 12:00 pm to 4:00 pm. HEC-RAS with HEC-GeoRAS extension in ArcGIS was applied to simulate the flash flood in West Creek from Spring Street to Long Street. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from high density LiDAR data and land cover data extracted from high resolution remote sensing imagery were used to model the flood inundation in the study area. The HEC-GeoRAS extension was used to prepare data sets for the stream centreline, banks, flow paths and cross-sections for import to the HEC-RAS hydraulic model. The downstream boundary conditions were defined in HEC-RAS. The hydrological results from HEC-HMS showed the maximum discharge value of West Creek Catchment at different periods of time. These results were comparable with Toowoomba Regional Council Report (TRCR). The flood inundation maps showed the maximum flood width and depth of West Creek Channel (starting from Spring Street and ending at Long Street) at 1:00 pm to 3:00 pm, which was greater than any previous floods in Toowoomba. The validation between the modelled flood extent at peak time and flood extent in the Nearmap aerial photo showed a high degree of correlation. Therefore, the model can provide a sound basis on which to analyse similar scenarios

    Global Atlas of Environmental Parameters for Chemical Fate and Transport Assessment

    Get PDF
    The report describes datasets forming an atlas of global landscape and climate parameters which were collected, homogenized and processed in order to provide input to a global model of chemical fate. The datasets can be used to parameterize the main land and ocean compartments usually considered in fate and transport models, and provide meaningful geographic patterns of the drivers of the environmental fate of contaminants. The maps were specifically designed to be used for a multimedia assessment of pollutant pathways in the environment (MAPPE Global), described in a companion report. The data can be downloaded from the JRC FATE Web sites http://fate.jrc.ec.europa.eu/JRC.DDG.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource
    • …
    corecore