Only in the Heat of the Moment? A Study of the Relationship between Weather and Mortality in Germany

In this study we analyze the relationship between heat events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Does heat lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the effects persistent or compensated for in the near future? Furthermore, we consider differences between heat effects in urban and rural environments. Cause specific daily mortality and meteorological data is connected on the county level. We allow for static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and implement several panel data estimation approaches. We find that heat has a significant positive impact on mortality. The strongest effects can be measured on the day when heat occurs and the first week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular death cause. We do not find a significant negative, and thus compensating impact in a medium term, which is in the contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using a value of statistical life approach we estimate that one additional hot day in Germany induces for the overall population a loss of m € 1,861. Moreover, the environment plays an important role. The heat induced increase in mortality is significantly higher in urban areas.Climate Change, Harvesting Hypothesis, Heat Waves, Mortality, Urban Heat Island effect

A study of the relationship between the starling Sturnus vulgaris and the haematophagus mite Ornithonyssus bursa : a thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Zoology at Massey University

A description is given of a study of starlings breeding in 160 nest boxes over the two breeding seasons 1974-75 and 1975-76, aimed at determining productivity and some factors which possibly affect it. Changes in productivity through the season and between seasons are discussed, with particular reference to the influence of the mite Ornithonyssus bursa on nestling growth rate, weight at 15 days, mortality, blood characteristics, and lipid stores. Also the effect of mite infestations on the mean weight of nestlings from different brood sizes is discussed. The starling nestling period is described, including changes in feeding activity, growth rates, sanitation measures and behaviour patterns. Factors possibly contributing to the death of late hatching nestlings are discussed. The life cycle of 0. bursa is outlined with particular emphasis on feeding methods and their effects on the host. The behaviour of mites in response to some environmental variables is discussed briefly in relation to the effects of mites on nestlings. The seasonal pattern of 0. bursa infestation over the starling breeding season is described with particular emphasis on the proportion of nest sites infested and the degree of infestation at each of three periods in the breeding season. Several methods of mite dispersal are considered and their importance in infesting other nest sites are discussed

Heat waves and human well-being in Madrid (Spain)

Heat waves pose additional risks to urban spaces because of the additional heat provided by urban heat islands (UHIs) as well as poorer air quality. Our study focuses on the analysis of UHIs, human thermal comfort, and air quality for the city of Madrid, Spain during heat waves. Heat wave periods are defined using the long-term records from the urban station Madrid-Retiro. Two types of UHI were studied: the canopy layer UHI (CLUHI) was evaluated using air temperature time-series from five meteorological stations; the surface UHI (SUHI) was derived from land surface temperature (LST) images from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products. To assess human thermal comfort, the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index was applied. Air quality was analyzed from the records of two air quality networks. More frequent and longer heat waves have been observed since 1980; the nocturnal CLUHI and both the diurnal and nocturnal SUHI experience an intensification, which have led to an increasing number of tropical nights. Conversely, thermal stress is extreme by day in the city due to the lack of cooling by winds. Finally, air quality during heat waves deteriorates because of the higher than normal amount of particles arriving from Northern AfricaThis research was funded by the research project number CGL2016-80154-R “Análisis y modelización de eventos climáticos extremos en Madrid: olas de calor e inversiones térmicas” funded by Convocatoria 2016 de Proyectos de I+D+I, correspondientes al programa estatal de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad, from the Spanish Ministry of Educatio

Escherichia coli contamination and health aspects of soil and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L.) subsurface drip irrigated with on-site treated domestic wastewater.

Faecal contamination of soil and tomatoes irrigated by sprinkler as well as surface and subsurface drip irrigation with treated domestic wastewater were compared in 2007 and 2008 at experimental sites in Crete and Italy. Wastewater was treated by Membrane Bio Reactor (MBR) technology, gravel filtration or UV-treatment before used for irrigation. Irrigation water, soil and tomato samples were collected during two cropping seasons and enumerated for the faecal indicator bacterium Escherichia coli and helminth eggs. The study found elevated levels of E. coli in irrigation water (mean: Italy 1753 cell forming unit (cfu) per 100 ml and Crete 488 cfu per 100 ml) and low concentrations of E. coli in soil (mean: Italy 95 cfu g(-1) and Crete 33 cfu g(-1)). Only two out of 84 tomato samples in Crete contained E. coli (mean: 2700 cfu g(-1)) while tomatoes from Italy were free of E. coli. No helminth eggs were found in the irrigation water or on the tomatoes from Crete. Two tomato samples out of 36 from Italy were contaminated by helminth eggs (mean: 0.18 eggs g(-1)) and had been irrigated with treated wastewater and tap water, respectively. Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis DNA fingerprints of E. coli collected during 2008 showed no identical pattern between water and soil isolates which indicates contribution from other environmental sources with E. coli, e.g. wildlife. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model with Monte Carlo simulations adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) found the use of tap water and treated wastewater to be associated with risks that exceed permissible limits as proposed by the WHO (1.0 × 10(-3) disease risk per person per year) for the accidental ingestion of irrigated soil by farmers (Crete: 0.67 pppy and Italy: 1.0 pppy). The QMRA found that the consumption of tomatoes in Italy was deemed to be safe while permissible limits were exceeded in Crete (1.0 pppy). Overall the quality of tomatoes was safe for human consumption since the disease risk found on Crete was based on only two contaminated tomato samples. It is a fundamental limitation of the WHO QMRA model that it is not based on actual pathogen numbers, but rather on numbers of E. coli converted to estimated pathogen numbers, since it is widely accepted that there is poor correlation between E. coli and viral and parasite pathogens. Our findings also stress the importance of the external environment, typically wildlife, as sources of faecal contamination

Only in the Heat of the Moment? A Study of the Relationship between Weather and Mortality in Germany

In this study we analyze the relationship between heat events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Does heat lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the effects persistent or compensated for in the near future? Furthermore, we consider differences between heat effects in urban and rural environments. Cause specific daily mortality and meteorological data is connected on the county level. We allow for static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and implement several panel data estimation approaches. We find that heat has a significant positive impact on mortality. The strongest effects can be measured on the day when heat occurs and the first week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular death cause. We do not find a significant negative, and thus compensating impact in a medium term, which is in the contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using a value of statistical life approach we estimate that one additional hot day in Germany induces for the overall population a loss of m € 1,861. Moreover, the environment plays an important role. The heat induced increase in mortality is significantly higher in urban areas

Reducing the health risks of severe winter weather among older people in the United Kingdom: an evidence-based intervention

Excess winter morbidity and mortality among older people remain significant public health issues in those European countries which experience relatively mild winter temperatures, particularly the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In the UK, episodes of severe winter weather, when ambient temperatures fall below 5x C, are associated with peaks in general practitioner consultations,hospital admissions, and cardiovascular deaths among those aged over 65. While research indicates that such health risks could be substantially reduced by the adoption of appropriate behavioural strategies, accessible and credible advice on how older people can reduce risk during ‘cold snaps’ is lacking. This paper describes a programme of research that aimed: (a) to translate the relevant scientific literature into practical advice for older people in order to reduce health risk during episodes of severe winter weather ; and (b) to integrate this advice with a severe winter weather ‘Early Warning System’ developed by the UK Met Office. An advice booklet was generated through a sequential process of systematic review, consensus development, and focus group discussions with older people. In a subsequent field trial, a combination of the Met Office ‘Early Warning System’ and the advice booklet produced behavioural change among older people consistent with risk reduction. The results also show that long-held convictions about ‘healthy environments ’ and anxieties about fuel costs are barriers to risk reduction

Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life

We analyze causal effects of conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life. Conditions early in life are captured by transitory features of the macro environment around birth, notably the state of the business cycle around birth, but also food price deviations, weather indicators, and demographic indicators. We argue that these features can only affect high-age mortality by way of the individual early-life conditions. Moreover, they are exogenous from the individual point of view, which is a methodological advantage compared to the use of unique characteristics of the newborn individual or his family or household as early-life indicators. We collected national annual time-series data on the above-mentioned indicators, and we combine these to the individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births in 1873-1906. The empirical analyses (mostly based on the estimation of duration models) indicate a significant negative causal effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at higher ages. If the national economic performance in the year of birth exceeds its trend value (i.e., if the business cycle is favorable) then the mortality rate later in life is lower. The implied effect on the median lifetime of those who survive until age 35 is about 10 months. A systematic empirical exploration of all macro indicators reveals that economic conditions in the first years after birth also affect mortality rates later in life.

Evapotranspiration Mapping for Forest Management in California's Sierra Nevada

We assessed the response of densely forested watersheds with little apparent annual water limitation to forest disturbance and climate variability, by studying how past wildfires changed forest evapotranspiration, and what past evapotranspiration patterns imply for the availability of subsurface water storage for drought resistance. We determined annual spatial patterns of evapotranspiration using a top-down statistical model, correlating measured annual evapotranspiration from eddycovariance towers across California with NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) measured by satellite, and with annual precipitation. The study area was the Yuba and American River watersheds, two densely forested watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. Wildfires in the 1985-2015 period resulted in significant post-fire reductions in evapotranspiration for at least 5 years, and in some cases for more than 20 years. The levels of biomass removed in medium-intensity fires (25- 75% basal area loss), similar to magnitudes expected from forest treatments for fuels reduction and forest health, reduced evapotranspiration by as much 150-200 mm yr-1 for the first 5 years. Rates of recovery in post-wildfire evapotranspiration confirm the need for follow-up forest treatments at intervals of 5-20 years to sustain lower evapotranspiration, depending on local landscape attributes and interannual climate. Using the metric of cumulative precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) during multi-year dry periods, we found that forests in the study area showed little evidence of moisture stress during the 1985-2018 period of our analysis, owing to relatively small reliance on interannual subsurface water storage to meet dry-year evapotranspiration needs of vegetation. However, more-severe or sustained drought periods will push some lower-elevation forests in the area studied toward the cumulative P-ET thresholds previously associated with widespread forest mortality in the southern Sierra Nevada

Twenty years of the grey partridge population in the LAJTA Project (Western Hungary)

Veinte años de la población de perdiz pardilla en el Proyecto LAJTA (Hungría occidental) El Proyecto LAJTA cubre 3.065 ha. En esta área dominan las tierras de cultivo. Los campos están separados entre sí por cinturones forestales e hileras de árboles, que tienen en conjunto una superficie aproximada de 120 ha. Esta estructura de hábitat, caracterizada por el cultivo de 12–15 cosechas, mantenía una población de perdices con densidades de 1,75 aves/km2 (1991). El Proyecto empezó en 1991/1992 con el propósito de aumentar la capacidad de carga para la perdiz pardilla y otras especies de caza similares que vivían en la zona. Se contrató a un guardabosques a jornada completa y se inició la mejora del hábitat. Cuatro años más tarde, la población de cría había aumentado a 10,1 aves/km2. Además del aumento de parejas nidificantes, también aumentó la cantidad de pollos criados, de 5,1–11,2 individuos/km2 en 1990 a 27,3–38,4 individuos/km2 en 1994. No obstante, el tamaño de los campos no cambió significativamente. Aunque la longitud de los márgenes de los campos aumentó aproximadamente en un 25% (de 82 m/ha a 115 m/ha) por la influencia de la gestión del hábitat, solamente se alcanzó la mitad de los que se encuentran en los países de Europa central, donde predomina la propiedad privada de la tierra. Tras la privatización de los campos en 1995, como parte del cambio político húngaro —lo que afectó aproximadamente al 50% del área del proyecto— las posibilidades de mejorar el hábitat disminuyeron, y aumentó la presión tecnológica sobre la agricultura a gran escala. Como consecuencia de este proceso la población de perdiz pardilla volvió a decrecer hasta 1,43 aves/km2 en 1997. Como resultado de una nueva estrategia de gestión aplicada al Proyecto desde 1996, observamos un lento incremento de la población de cría, que se estabilizó alrededor de 5 aves/km2 del 2007 al 2009. La densidad en el mes de agosto aumentó durante el mismo periodo de 4,5 aves/km2 a 13–17 aves/km2. Durante las dos décadas en las que se llevó a cabo este estudio, la mortalidad de las crías y la mortalidad invernal eran extremadamente altas. Los factores clave que influencian la dinámica de poblaciones de la perdiz pardilla en nuestra área de estudio parecen ser las pérdidas de huevos y pollos, y la mortalidad invernal. Con el fin de determinar la relación entre los factores ambientales y los parámetros de la población de la perdiz pardilla, se utilizó un Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP). La densidad de la perdiz pardilla en el mes de agosto se asociaba positivamente con la densidad del ecotono y la caza de zorros comunes y otros depredadores de aves (cornejas cenicientas y urracas). La densidad de las perdices también se correlacionaba en primavera y agosto con la caza de gatos y perros cimarrones. Los parámetros del hábitat tenían una correlación positiva con la densidad de la perdiz pardilla tanto en primavera como en agosto. Los niveles de abundancia de las poblaciones de gatos y perros cimarrones también se correlacionaron negativamente con las pérdidas invernales.Veinte años de la población de perdiz pardilla en el Proyecto LAJTA (Hungría occidental) El Proyecto LAJTA cubre 3.065 ha. En esta área dominan las tierras de cultivo. Los campos están separados entre sí por cinturones forestales e hileras de árboles, que tienen en conjunto una superficie aproximada de 120 ha. Esta estructura de hábitat, caracterizada por el cultivo de 12–15 cosechas, mantenía una población de perdices con densidades de 1,75 aves/km2 (1991). El Proyecto empezó en 1991/1992 con el propósito de aumentar la capacidad de carga para la perdiz pardilla y otras especies de caza similares que vivían en la zona. Se contrató a un guardabosques a jornada completa y se inició la mejora del hábitat. Cuatro años más tarde, la población de cría había aumentado a 10,1 aves/km2. Además del aumento de parejas nidificantes, también aumentó la cantidad de pollos criados, de 5,1–11,2 individuos/km2 en 1990 a 27,3–38,4 individuos/km2 en 1994. No obstante, el tamaño de los campos no cambió significativamente. Aunque la longitud de los márgenes de los campos aumentó aproximadamente en un 25% (de 82 m/ha a 115 m/ha) por la influencia de la gestión del hábitat, solamente se alcanzó la mitad de los que se encuentran en los países de Europa central, donde predomina la propiedad privada de la tierra. Tras la privatización de los campos en 1995, como parte del cambio político húngaro —lo que afectó aproximadamente al 50% del área del proyecto— las posibilidades de mejorar el hábitat disminuyeron, y aumentó la presión tecnológica sobre la agricultura a gran escala. Como consecuencia de este proceso la población de perdiz pardilla volvió a decrecer hasta 1,43 aves/km2 en 1997. Como resultado de una nueva estrategia de gestión aplicada al Proyecto desde 1996, observamos un lento incremento de la población de cría, que se estabilizó alrededor de 5 aves/km2 del 2007 al 2009. La densidad en el mes de agosto aumentó durante el mismo periodo de 4,5 aves/km2 a 13–17 aves/km2. Durante las dos décadas en las que se llevó a cabo este estudio, la mortalidad de las crías y la mortalidad invernal eran extremadamente altas. Los factores clave que influencian la dinámica de poblaciones de la perdiz pardilla en nuestra área de estudio parecen ser las pérdidas de huevos y pollos, y la mortalidad invernal. Con el fin de determinar la relación entre los factores ambientales y los parámetros de la población de la perdiz pardilla, se utilizó un Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP). La densidad de la perdiz pardilla en el mes de agosto se asociaba positivamente con la densidad del ecotono y la caza de zorros comunes y otros depredadores de aves (cornejas cenicientas y urracas). La densidad de las perdices también se correlacionaba en primavera y agosto con la caza de gatos y perros cimarrones. Los parámetros del hábitat tenían una correlación positiva con la densidad de la perdiz pardilla tanto en primavera como en agosto. Los niveles de abundancia de las poblaciones de gatos y perros cimarrones también se correlacionaron negativamente con las pérdidas invernales.The Lajta Project covers 3,065 ha. Within this area crop cultivation is dominant. Fields are separated from each other by forest belts and tree rows, extending altogether over roughly 120 ha. This habitat structure characterized by cultivation of 12–15 field crops sustained partridge population with densities of 1.75 birds/km2 (1991). The Project started in 1991/1992 and aimed to increase the carrying capacity for grey partridge and other small game species living in the area. A full–time gamekeeper was employed and habitat improvements were initiated. Four years later, the breeding population increased to 10.1 birds/km2. Besides increased numbers of nesting pairs, the number of reared chicks also increased, from 5.1–11.2 individuals/km2 in 1990 to 27.3–38.4 individuals/km2 in 1994. However, field sizes did not change significantly. Although the lengths of field margins increased by approximately 25% (from 82 m/ha to 115 m/ha) under the influence of habitat management, they still reached only half those found in the countries of Central Europe where private ownership of land properties is dominant. After the privatisation of fields in 1995 as part of the political change in Hungary —affecting approximately 50% of the project area— the possibilities of habitat improvement decreased, and the technological pressure on large–scale farming area increased. Following these processes the grey partridge population again decreased to 1.43 birds/km2 in 1997. As a result of the new management strategy applied in the project since 1996 we observed a slow increase in the breeding population, which stabilized at around 5 birds/km2, between 2007 and 2009. The August density increased in the same period from 4.5 birds/km2 to 13–17 birds/km2. During the two decades in which this research was conducted, chick mortality and winter mortality were extremely high. The key factors influencing grey partridge population dynamics in our study area seem to be clutch and chick losses and winter mortality. To determine the relationship between environmental factors and the grey partridge population parameters, principal component analysis (PCA) was used. August grey partridge density was positively associated with ecotone density and bags of red fox and avian predators (magpie and hooded crow). The density of grey partridge in spring and August also correlated with feral dog bag and feral cat bag. Habitat parameters showed a positive correlation with the density of grey partridge both in spring and in August. The levels of abundance of feral dog and feral cat populations also correlated negatively with winter losses