8,535 research outputs found

    Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster

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    In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC). The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP); Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS) to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.</p

    A Methodology to Evaluate Accessibility to Bus Stops as a Contribution to Improve Sustainability in Urban Mobility

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    Walking and transit are the backbone of sustainable mobility. Bus stops not only represent the connection between the two, but are also central in dictating the attractiveness of the latter. Accessibility of bus stops becomes, then, pivotal in increasing both attractiveness and sustainability of public transport. The paper describes a multi-step methodology to evaluate bus stops’ accessibility starting from a cluster of seven indicators describing objective and subjective features influencing passengers’ choice toward a given bus stop. The indicators are weighed by a questionnaire submitted to experts. Finally, a multicriteria analysis is developed to obtain a final score describing univocally the accessibility of each stop. Outcomes are mapped and a case study in Rome is reported as an example, with 231 bus and tram stops assessed accordingly. Results shows the relevance of the urban network and environment in evaluating the accessibility and in promoting more sustainable mobility patterns. Research innovation relies on the possibility to merge data from different fields into a specific GIS map and easily highlight for each bus stop the relationships between built environment, passengers’ comfort, and accessibility, with the concluding goal to provide advanced knowledge for further application

    Integrating spatial and temporal approaches for explaining bicycle crashes in high-risk areas in Antwerp (Belgium)

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    The majority of bicycle crash studies aim at determining risk factors and estimating crash risks by employing statistics. Accordingly, the goal of this paper is to evaluate bicycle-motor vehicle crashes by using spatial and temporal approaches to statistical data. The spatial approach (a weighted kernel density estimation approach) preliminarily estimates crash risks at the macro level, thereby avoiding the expensive work of collecting traffic counts; meanwhile, the temporal approach (negative binomial regression approach) focuses on crash data that occurred on urban arterials and includes traffic exposure at the micro level. The crash risk and risk factors of arterial roads associated with bicycle facilities and road environments were assessed using a database built from field surveys and five government agencies. This study analysed 4120 geocoded bicycle crashes in the city of Antwerp (CA, Belgium). The data sets covered five years (2014 to 2018), including all bicycle-motorized vehicle (BMV) crashes from police reports. Urban arterials were highlighted as high-risk areas through the spatial approach. This was as expected given that, due to heavy traffic and limited road space, bicycle facilities on arterial roads face many design problems. Through spatial and temporal approaches, the environmental characteristics of bicycle crashes on arterial roads were analysed at the micro level. Finally, this paper provides an insight that can be used by both the geography and transport fields to improve cycling safety on urban arterial roads

    Managing Traffic Data through Clustering and Radial Basis Functions

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    Due to the importance of road transport an adequate identification of the various road network levels is necessary for an efficient and sustainable management of the road infrastructure. Additionally, traffic values are key data for any pavement management system. In this work traffic volume data of 2019 in the Basque Autonomous Community (Spain) were analyzed and modeled. Having a multidimensional sample, the average annual daily traffic (AADT) was considered as the main variable of interest, which is used in many areas of the road network management. First, an exploratory analysis was performed, from which descriptive statistical information was obtained continuing with the clustering by various variables in order to standardize its behavior by translation. In a second stage, the variable of interest was estimated in the entire road network of the studied country using linear-based radial basis functions (RBFs). The estimated model was compared with the sample statistically, evaluating the estimation using cross-validation and highest-traffic sectors are defined. From the analysis, it was observed that the clustering analysis is useful for identifying the real importance of each road segment, as a function of the real traffic volume and not based on other criteria. It was also observed that interpolation methods based on linear-type radial basis functions (RBF) can be used as a preliminary method to estimate the AADT.This research was funded by The University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Call for Innovation Projects “IKD i3 Laborategia” (Call 1-2020, 2019/20)

    Evaluation of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Models in Wrong-way Driving Crash Severity Prediction

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    Wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes result in more fatalities per crash, involve more vehicles, and cause extended road closures compared to other types of crashes. Although crashes involving wrong-way drivers are relatively few, they often lead to fatalities and serious injuries. Researchers have been using parametric statistical models to identify factors that affect WWD crash severity. However, these parametric models are generally based on several assumptions, and the results could generate numerous errors and become questionable when these assumptions are violated. On the other hand, nonparametric methods such as data mining or machine learning techniques do not use a predetermined functional form, can address the correlation problem among independent variables, display results graphically, and simplify the potential complex relationship between the variables. The main objective of this research was to demonstrate the applicability of nonparametric statistical models in successfully identifying factors affecting traffic crash severity. To achieve this goal, the performance of parametric and nonparametric statistical models in WWD crash severity prediction was evaluated. The following parametric methods were evaluated: Logistic Regression (LR), Ridge Regression (RR), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB). The following nonparametric methods were evaluated: Random Forests (RF), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The evaluation was based on sensitivity, specificity, and prediction accuracy. The research also demonstrated the applicability of nonparametric supervised learning algorithms on crash severity analysis by combining tree-based data mining techniques and marginal effect analysis to show the correlation between the response and the predictor variables. The analysis was based on 1,475 WWD crashes that occurred on arterial road networks from 2012-2016 in Florida. The results showed that nonparametric models provided better prediction accuracy on predicting serious injury compared to parametric models. By conducting prediction accuracy comparison, contributor variables’ marginal effect analysis, variable importance evaluation, and crash severity pattern recognition analysis, the nonparametric models have been demonstrated to be valid and proved to serve as an alternative tool in transportation safety studies. The results showed that head-on collisions, weekends, high-speed facilities, crashes involving vehicles entering from a driveway, dark-not lighted roadways, older drivers, and driver impairment are important factors that play a crucial role in WWD crash severity on non-limited access facilities. This information may assist researchers and safety engineers in identifying specific strategies to reduce the severity of WWD crashes on arterial streets. Besides unveiling the factors contributing to WWD crash severity and their relationship with each other, this research has demonstrated the potential of using data mining techniques in yielding results that are easily understandable and interpretable

    Statistical Clustering Performance in Pavement Condition Prediction as Decision Supporting System Tool

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    Mathematical methods and statistical patterns have always been considered by managers, designers and science and technology expert in order to develop technology and engineering objectives. During the development of data-gathering tools and increment of data-bases, data mining have made suitable tools in management and engineering. The assessment of roads' maintenance is highly important in order to prevent early deterioration of roads and performing maximum road capacity during the service-life. Pavement management of roads has also implemented this tool to make proper decisions and preferences of pavement repair methods, using decision tree. Through engineering management, cluster analysis is one of the basic tools of data mining and knowledge discovery and makes the decision making, easier in engineering. Data categorization is helpful for planning and is important in picking proper methods. This study was performed by using recorded data from other scientific sources considering data mining method and analyzing data with respect to statistical clustering. The results indicate that bitumen content in asphalt mix, pavement age, marshal strength and rate of passing vehicles have the most important effect on decrement of condition index of pavement, relatively. Also, the highest deterioration in asphalt happens in 5.5% and higher values of bitumen content and the progressive deteriorations take place when the pavement age exceeds 35 years

    Safety-critical scenarios and virtual testing procedures for automated cars at road intersections

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    This thesis addresses the problem of road intersection safety with regard to a mixed population of automated vehicles and non-automated road users. The work derives and evaluates safety-critical scenarios at road junctions, which can pose a particular safety problem involving automated cars. A simulation and evaluation framework for car-to-car accidents is presented and demonstrated, which allows examining the safety performance of automated driving systems within those scenarios. Given the recent advancements in automated driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual testing environments or on real-world test tracks. Since it is unrealistic to cover all possible combinations of traffic situations and environment conditions, the challenge is to find the key driving situations to be evaluated at junctions. Against this background, a novel method to derive critical pre-crash scenarios from historical car accident data is presented. It employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1,056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth On-the-Spot database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. As a follow-up to the scenario generation, the thesis further presents a novel, modular framework to transfer the derived collision scenarios to a sub-microscopic traffic simulation environment. The software CarMaker is used with MATLAB/Simulink to simulate realistic models of vehicles, sensors and road environments and is combined with an advanced Monte Carlo method to obtain a representative set of parameter combinations. The analysis of different safety performance indicators computed from the simulation outputs reveals collision and near-miss probabilities for selected scenarios. The usefulness and applicability of the simulation and evaluation framework is demonstrated for a selected junction scenario, where the safety performance of different in-vehicle collision avoidance systems is studied. The results show that the number of collisions and conflicts were reduced to a tenth when adding a crossing and turning assistant to a basic forward collision avoidance system. Due to its modular architecture, the presented framework can be adapted to the individual needs of future users and may be enhanced with customised simulation models. Ultimately, the thesis leads to more efficient workflows when virtually testing automated driving at intersections, as a complement to field operational tests on public roads
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