Generalized Score Matching for Non-Negative Data

A common challenge in estimating parameters of probability density functions is the intractability of the normalizing constant. While in such cases maximum likelihood estimation may be implemented using numerical integration, the approach becomes computationally intensive. The score matching method of Hyv\"arinen [2005] avoids direct calculation of the normalizing constant and yields closed-form estimates for exponential families of continuous distributions over $\mathbb{R}^m$. Hyv\"arinen [2007] extended the approach to distributions supported on the non-negative orthant, $\mathbb{R}_+^m$. In this paper, we give a generalized form of score matching for non-negative data that improves estimation efficiency. As an example, we consider a general class of pairwise interaction models. Addressing an overlooked inexistence problem, we generalize the regularized score matching method of Lin et al. [2016] and improve its theoretical guarantees for non-negative Gaussian graphical models.Comment: 70 pages, 76 figure

Non-Parametric Causality Detection: An Application to Social Media and Financial Data

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about the statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.Comment: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 201

Query-Driven Sampling for Collective Entity Resolution

Probabilistic databases play a preeminent role in the processing and management of uncertain data. Recently, many database research efforts have integrated probabilistic models into databases to support tasks such as information extraction and labeling. Many of these efforts are based on batch oriented inference which inhibits a realtime workflow. One important task is entity resolution (ER). ER is the process of determining records (mentions) in a database that correspond to the same real-world entity. Traditional pairwise ER methods can lead to inconsistencies and low accuracy due to localized decisions. Leading ER systems solve this problem by collectively resolving all records using a probabilistic graphical model and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference. However, for large datasets this is an extremely expensive process. One key observation is that, such exhaustive ER process incurs a huge up-front cost, which is wasteful in practice because most users are interested in only a small subset of entities. In this paper, we advocate pay-as-you-go entity resolution by developing a number of query-driven collective ER techniques. We introduce two classes of SQL queries that involve ER operators --- selection-driven ER and join-driven ER. We implement novel variations of the MCMC Metropolis Hastings algorithm to generate biased samples and selectivity-based scheduling algorithms to support the two classes of ER queries. Finally, we show that query-driven ER algorithms can converge and return results within minutes over a database populated with the extraction from a newswire dataset containing 71 million mentions