The Dynamics of Public Opinion in Complex Networks

This paper studies the problem of public opinion formation and concentrates on the interplays among three factors: individual attributes, environmental influences and information flow. We present a simple model to analyze the dynamics of four types of networks. Our simulations suggest that regular communities establish not only local consensus, but also global diversity in public opinions. However, when small world networks, random networks, or scale-free networks model social relationships, the results are sensitive to the elasticity coefficient of environmental influences and the average connectivity of the type of network. For example, a community with a higher average connectivity has a higher probability of consensus. Yet, it is misleading to predict results merely based on the characteristic path length of networks. In the process of changing environmental influences and average connectivity, sensitive areas are discovered in the system. By sensitive areas we mean that interior randomness emerges and we cannot predict unequivocally how many opinions will remain upon reaching equilibrium. We also investigate the role of authoritative individuals in information control. While enhancing average connectivity facilitates the diffusion of the authoritative opinion, it makes individuals subject to disturbance from non-authorities as well. Thus, a moderate average connectivity may be preferable because then the public will most likely form an opinion that is parallel with the authoritative one. In a community with a scale-free structure, the influence of authoritative individuals keeps constant with the change of the average connectivity. Provided that the influence of individuals is proportional to the number of their acquaintances, the smallest percentage of authorities is required for a controlled consensus in a scale free network. This study shows that the dynamics of public opinion varies from community to community due to the different degree of impressionability of people and the distinct social network structure of the community.Public Opinion, Complex Network, Consensus, Agent-Based Model

An Optimization-based Framework for Modelling Counter-terrorism Strategies

This article introduces the subject of terrorism and counter-terrorism by means of a two-person bimatrix game that provides some insight into the behaviour of the two players. We then examine three important areas in counter-terrorism tasks: the detection of terrorist cells and how to render them inoperable, the fortification of assets in order to protect them from terrorist attacks and the optimal evacuation of people from an area affected by terrorism. Basic mathematical models are formulated and demonstrated. This article concludes with some thoughts on potential extensions of the models presented here

A Dynamic Game Model of Collective Choice in Multi-Agent Systems

Inspired by successful biological collective decision mechanisms such as honey bees searching for a new colony or the collective navigation of fish schools, we consider a mean field games (MFG)-like scenario where a large number of agents have to make a choice among a set of different potential target destinations. Each individual both influences and is influenced by the group's decision, as well as the mean trajectory of all the agents. The model can be interpreted as a stylized version of opinion crystallization in an election for example. The agents' biases are dictated first by their initial spatial position and, in a subsequent generalization of the model, by a combination of initial position and a priori individual preference. The agents have linear dynamics and are coupled through a modified form of quadratic cost. Fixed point based finite population equilibrium conditions are identified and associated existence conditions are established. In general multiple equilibria may exist and the agents need to know all initial conditions to compute them precisely. However, as the number of agents increases sufficiently, we show that 1) the computed fixed point equilibria qualify as epsilon Nash equilibria, 2) agents no longer require all initial conditions to compute the equilibria but rather can do so based on a representative probability distribution of these conditions now viewed as random variables. Numerical results are reported

Multi-Agent Systems

A multi-agent system (MAS) is a system composed of multiple interacting intelligent agents. Multi-agent systems can be used to solve problems which are difficult or impossible for an individual agent or monolithic system to solve. Agent systems are open and extensible systems that allow for the deployment of autonomous and proactive software components. Multi-agent systems have been brought up and used in several application domains