Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise

Plasma heating in the very early and decay phases of solar flares

In this paper we analyze the energy budgets of two single-loop solar flares under the assumption that non-thermal electrons are the only source of plasma heating during all phases of both events. The flares were observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) on September 20, 2002 and March 17, 2002, respectively. For both investigated flares we derived the energy fluxes contained in non-thermal electron beams from the RHESSI observational data constrained by observed GOES light-curves. We showed that energy delivered by non-thermal electrons was fully sufficient to fulfil the energy budgets of the plasma during the pre-heating and impulsive phases of both flares as well as during the decay phase of one of them. We concluded that in the case of the investigated flares there was no need to use any additional ad-hoc heating mechanisms other than heating by non-thermal electrons.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, The Astrophysical Journal (accepted, March 2011

Quantitative Analysis of Single-Molecule Force Spectroscopy on Folded Chromatin Fibers

Single-molecule techniques allow for picoNewton manipulation and nanometer accuracy measurements of single chromatin fibers. However, the complexity of the data, the heterogeneity of the composition of individual fibers and the relatively large fluctuations in extension of the fibers complicate a structural interpretation of such force-extension curves. Here we introduce a statistical mechanics model that quantitatively describes the extension of individual fibers in response to force on a per nucleosome basis. Four nucleosome conformations can be distinguished when pulling a chromatin fiber apart. A novel, transient conformation is introduced that coexists with single wrapped nucleosomes between 3 and 7 pN. Comparison of force-extension curves between single nucleosomes and chromatin fibers shows that embedding nucleosomes in a fiber stabilizes the nucleosome by 10 kBT. Chromatin fibers with 20- and 50-bp linker DNA follow a different unfolding pathway. These results have implications for accessibility of DNA in fully folded and partially unwrapped chromatin fibers and are vital for understanding force unfolding experiments on nucleosome arrays

Multi-wavelength Diagnostics of the Precursor and Main phases of an M1.8 Flare on 2011 April 22

We study the temporal, spatial and spectral evolution of the M1.8 flare, which occurred in NOAA AR 11195 (S17E31) on 22 April 2011, and explore the underlying physical processes during the precursors and their relation to the main phase. The study of the source morphology using the composite images in 131 {\deg}A wavelength observed by the SDO/AIA and 6-14 keV revealed a multiloop system that destabilized systematically during the precursor and main phases. In contrast, HXR emission (20-50 keV) was absent during the precursor phase, appearing only from the onset of the impulsive phase in the form of foot-points of emitting loop/s. This study has also revealed the heated loop-top prior to the loop emission, although no accompanying foot-point sources were observed during the precursor phase. We estimate the flare plasma parameters viz. T, EM, power-law index, and photon turn-over energy by forward fitting RHESSI spectral observations. The energy released in the precursor phase was thermal and constituted ~1 per cent of the total energy released during the flare. The study of morphological evolution of the filament in conjunction with synthesized T and EM maps has been carried out which reveals (a) Partial filament eruption prior to the onset of the precursor emission, (b) Heated dense plasma over the polarity inversion line and in the vicinity of the slowly rising filament during the precursor phase. Based on the implications from multi-wavelength observations, we propose a scheme to unify the energy release during the precursor and main phase emissions in which, the precursor phase emission has been originated via conduction front formed due to the partial filament eruption. Next, the heated leftover S-shaped filament has undergone slow rise and heating due to magnetic reconnection and finally erupted to produce emission during the impulsive and gradual phases.Comment: 16 Pages, 11 Figures, Accepted for Publication in MNRAS Main Journa

Plasmon reflections by topological electronic boundaries in bilayer graphene

Domain walls separating regions of AB and BA interlayer stacking in bilayer graphene have attracted attention as novel examples of structural solitons, topological electronic boundaries, and nanoscale plasmonic scatterers. We show that strong coupling of domain walls to surface plasmons observed in infrared nanoimaging experiments is due to topological chiral modes confined to the walls. The optical transitions among these chiral modes and the band continua enhance the local ac conductivity, which leads to plasmon reflection by the domain walls. The imaging reveals two kinds of plasmonic standing-wave interference patterns, which we attribute to shear and tensile domain walls. We compute the electronic structure of both wall varieties and show that the tensile wall contain additional confined bands which produce a structure-specific contrast of the local conductivity. The calculated plasmonic interference profiles are in quantitative agreement with our experiments.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

HST/FOS Eclipse Observations of the Nova-like Cataclysmic Variable UX Ursae Majoris

[abridged abstract] We present and analyze Hubble Space Telescope observations of the eclipsing nova-like cataclysmic variable UX UMa obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph. Two eclipses each were observed with the G160L grating (covering the ultraviolet waveband) in August of 1994 and with the PRISM (covering the near-ultraviolet to near-infrared) in November of the same year. The system was 50% brighter in November than in August, which, if due to a change in the accretion rate, indicates a fairly substantial increase in Mdot_acc by >~ 50%. Model disk spectra constructed as ensembles of stellar atmospheres provide poor descriptions of the observed post-eclipse spectra, despite the fact that UX UMa's light should be dominated by the disk at this time. Suitably scaled single temperature model stellar atmospheres with T_eff = 12,500-14,500 K actually provide a better match to both the ultraviolet and optical post-eclipse spectra. Evidently, great care must be taken in attempts to derive accretion rates from comparisons of disk models to observations. One way to reconcile disk models with the observed post-eclipse spectra is to postulate the presence of a significant amount of optically thin material in the system. Such an optically thin component might be associated with the transition region (``chromosphere'') between the disk photosphere and the fast wind from the system, whose presence has been suggested by Knigge & Drew (1997).Comment: 35 pages, including 12 figures; to appear in the ApJ (Vol. 499