Predicting Influenza Antigenicity by Matrix Completion With Antigen and Antiserum Similarity

The rapid mutation of influenza viruses especially on the two surface proteins hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) has made them capable to escape from population immunity, which has become a key challenge for influenza vaccine design. Thus, it is crucial to predict influenza antigenic evolution and identify new antigenic variants in a timely manner. However, traditional experimental methods like hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay to select vaccine strains are time and labor-intensive, while popular computational methods are less sensitive, which presents the need for more accurate algorithms. In this study, we have proposed a novel low-rank matrix completion model MCAAS to infer antigenic distances between antigens and antisera based on partially revealed antigenic distances, virus similarity based on HA protein sequences, and vaccine similarity based on vaccine strains. The model exploits the correlations of viruses and vaccines in serological tests as well as the ability of HAs from viruses and vaccine strains in inferring influenza antigenicity. We also compared the effects of comprehensive 65 amino acids substitution matrices in predicting influenza antigenicity. As a result, we applied MCAAS into H3N2 seasonal influenza virus data. Our model achieved a 10-fold cross validation root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.5982, significantly outperformed existing computational methods like antigenic cartography, AntigenMap and BMCSI. We also constructed the antigenic map and studied the association between genetic and antigenic evolution of H3N2 influenza viruses. Finally, our analyses showed that homologous structure derived amino acid substitution matrix (HSDM) is most powerful in predicting influenza antigenicity, which is consistent with previous studies

Updating the Lambda modes of a nuclear power reactor

[EN] Starting from a steady state configuration of a nuclear power reactor some situations arise in which the reactor configuration is perturbed. The Lambda modes are eigenfunctions associated with a given configuration of the reactor, which have successfully been used to describe unstable events in BWRs. To compute several eigenvalues and its corresponding eigenfunctions for a nuclear reactor is quite expensive from the computational point of view. Krylov subspace methods are efficient methods to compute the dominant Lambda modes associated with a given configuration of the reactor, but if the Lambda modes have to be computed for different perturbed configurations of the reactor more efficient methods can be used. In this paper, different methods for the updating Lambda modes problem will be proposed and compared by computing the dominant Lambda modes of different configurations associated with a Boron injection transient in a typical BWR reactor. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia under projects ENE2008-02669 and MTM2007-64477-AR07, the Generalitat Valenciana under project ACOMP/2009/058, and the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia under project PAID-05-09-4285.González Pintor, S.; Ginestar Peiro, D.; Verdú Martín, GJ. (2011). Updating the Lambda modes of a nuclear power reactor. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 54(7):1796-1801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.12.013S1796180154

Statistical Inference for Propagation Processes on Complex Networks

Die Methoden der Netzwerktheorie erfreuen sich wachsender Beliebtheit, da sie die Darstellung von komplexen Systemen durch Netzwerke erlauben. Diese werden nur mit einer Menge von Knoten erfasst, die durch Kanten verbunden werden. Derzeit verfügbare Methoden beschränken sich hauptsächlich auf die deskriptive Analyse der Netzwerkstruktur. In der hier vorliegenden Arbeit werden verschiedene Ansätze für die Inferenz über Prozessen in komplexen Netzwerken vorgestellt. Diese Prozesse beeinflussen messbare Größen in Netzwerkknoten und werden durch eine Menge von Zufallszahlen beschrieben. Alle vorgestellten Methoden sind durch praktische Anwendungen motiviert, wie die Übertragung von Lebensmittelinfektionen, die Verbreitung von Zugverspätungen, oder auch die Regulierung von genetischen Effekten. Zunächst wird ein allgemeines dynamisches Metapopulationsmodell für die Verbreitung von Lebensmittelinfektionen vorgestellt, welches die lokalen Infektionsdynamiken mit den netzwerkbasierten Transportwegen von kontaminierten Lebensmitteln zusammenführt. Dieses Modell ermöglicht die effiziente Simulationen verschiedener realistischer Lebensmittelinfektionsepidemien. Zweitens wird ein explorativer Ansatz zur Ursprungsbestimmung von Verbreitungsprozessen entwickelt. Auf Grundlage einer netzwerkbasierten Redefinition der geodätischen Distanz können komplexe Verbreitungsmuster in ein systematisches, kreisrundes Ausbreitungsschema projiziert werden. Dies gilt genau dann, wenn der Ursprungsnetzwerkknoten als Bezugspunkt gewählt wird. Die Methode wird erfolgreich auf den EHEC/HUS Epidemie 2011 in Deutschland angewandt. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Methode die aufwändigen Standarduntersuchungen bei Lebensmittelinfektionsepidemien sinnvoll ergänzen kann. Zudem kann dieser explorative Ansatz zur Identifikation von Ursprungsverspätungen in Transportnetzwerken angewandt werden. Die Ergebnisse von umfangreichen Simulationsstudien mit verschiedenstensten Übertragungsmechanismen lassen auf eine allgemeine Anwendbarkeit des Ansatzes bei der Ursprungsbestimmung von Verbreitungsprozessen in vielfältigen Bereichen hoffen. Schließlich wird gezeigt, dass kernelbasierte Methoden eine Alternative für die statistische Analyse von Prozessen in Netzwerken darstellen können. Es wurde ein netzwerkbasierter Kern für den logistischen Kernel Machine Test entwickelt, welcher die nahtlose Integration von biologischem Wissen in die Analyse von Daten aus genomweiten Assoziationsstudien erlaubt. Die Methode wird erfolgreich bei der Analyse genetischer Ursachen für rheumatische Arthritis und Lungenkrebs getestet. Zusammenfassend machen die Ergebnisse der vorgestellten Methoden deutlich, dass die Netzwerk-theoretische Analyse von Verbreitungsprozessen einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Beantwortung verschiedenster Fragestellungen in unterschiedlichen Anwendungen liefern kann

Modelling and Design of Resilient Networks under Challenges

Communication networks, in particular the Internet, face a variety of challenges that can disrupt our daily lives resulting in the loss of human lives and significant financial costs in the worst cases. We define challenges as external events that trigger faults that eventually result in service failures. Understanding these challenges accordingly is essential for improvement of the current networks and for designing Future Internet architectures. This dissertation presents a taxonomy of challenges that can help evaluate design choices for the current and Future Internet. Graph models to analyse critical infrastructures are examined and a multilevel graph model is developed to study interdependencies between different networks. Furthermore, graph-theoretic heuristic optimisation algorithms are developed. These heuristic algorithms add links to increase the resilience of networks in the least costly manner and they are computationally less expensive than an exhaustive search algorithm. The performance of networks under random failures, targeted attacks, and correlated area-based challenges are evaluated by the challenge simulation module that we developed. The GpENI Future Internet testbed is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the performance of the heuristic algorithms developed

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

Topics in Structured Host-Antagonist Interactions.

In many complex systems, simple parts interact to produce the large scale pat- terns we observe. The structure of these interactions can have a dramatic effect on the behavior of the system, and many systems which have simple dynamics under the assumption of well-mixed interactions display vastly different behaviors when embedded on a discrete network or a continuous space. Often, the desynchronization of local dynamics, natural delays of information transfer, and higher dimensionality of the structured system can result in extending the duration of transient dynamics, enabling the stable persistence of heterogeneous solutions, and rendering optimal control challenging. This dissertation explores these phenomena in the context of the dynamics and control infectious diseases and agricultural pests. In particular, I focus on using compartmental models to investigate the effects of age-structured social mixing in the transmission of pertussis and spatially structured mixing and resource heterogeneity in plant-herbivore-parasitoid interactions. In chapter II, I investigated the potential of age-structure in social contacts to explain the resurgence of pertussis in highly vaccinated populations. and found that strong age-assortative mixing and a past history of vaccination coverage insufficient for eradication were sufficient to generate a slow resurgence in older age-groups. In chapter III, I searched for efficient age-targeted booster vaccination strategies using a genetic algorithm, under several simulated modes of vaccine failure. and found that the type of booster schedules most successful in reducing disease strongly depended on the mechanisms of failure. With an eye to finer scale targeting of vaccination, I derived and presented a multi-way spectral graph partitioning algorithm in chapter IV. In chapter V, I investigated the effects of spatial variation in plant quality on populations of herbivore hosts and their parasitoids, finding that variation in plant quality occurring at a fine spatial scale decreased overall herbivore populations. Finally, I explored the relationship between patterns of dispersal and abundance of a population in a one-dimensional space reproduces locally according to the logistic map and disperses with a Gaussian kernel and derived the conditions under which I expect certain classes of behavior to be stable.PhDApplied and Interdisciplinary MathematicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110321/1/mariolo_1.pd

Feature-preserving image restoration and its application in biological fluorescence microscopy

This thesis presents a new investigation of image restoration and its application to fluorescence cell microscopy. The first part of the work is to develop advanced image denoising algorithms to restore images from noisy observations by using a novel featurepreserving diffusion approach. I have applied these algorithms to different types of images, including biometric, biological and natural images, and demonstrated their superior performance for noise removal and feature preservation, compared to several state of the art methods. In the second part of my work, I explore a novel, simple and inexpensive super-resolution restoration method for quantitative microscopy in cell biology. In this method, a super-resolution image is restored, through an inverse process, by using multiple diffraction-limited (low) resolution observations, which are acquired from conventional microscopes whilst translating the sample parallel to the image plane, so referred to as translation microscopy (TRAM). A key to this new development is the integration of a robust feature detector, developed in the first part, to the inverse process to restore high resolution images well above the diffraction limit in the presence of strong noise. TRAM is a post-image acquisition computational method and can be implemented with any microscope. Experiments show a nearly 7-fold increase in lateral spatial resolution in noisy biological environments, delivering multi-colour image resolution of ~30 nm

진료 내역 데이터를 활용한 딥러닝 기반의 건강보험 남용 탐지

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 산업공학과, 2020. 8. 조성준.As global life expectancy increases, spending on healthcare grows in accordance in order to improve quality of life. However, due to expensive price of medical care, the bare cost of healthcare services would inevitably places great financial burden to individuals and households. In this light, many countries have devised and established their own public healthcare insurance systems to help people receive medical services at a lower price. Since reimbursements are made ex-post, unethical practices arise, exploiting the post-payment structure of the insurance system. The archetypes of such behavior are overdiagnosis, the act of manipulating patients diseases, and overtreatments, prescribing unnecessary drugs for the patient. These abusive behaviors are considered as one of the main sources of financial loss incurred in the healthcare system. In order to detect and prevent abuse, the national healthcare insurance hires medical professionals to manually examine whether the claim filing is medically legitimate or not. However, the review process is, unquestionably, very costly and time-consuming. In order to address these limitations, data mining techniques have been employed to detect problematic claims or abusive providers showing an abnormal billing pattern. However, these cases only used coarsely grained information such as claim-level or provider-level data. This extracted information may lead to degradation of the model's performance. In this thesis, we proposed abuse detection methods using the medical treatment data, which is the lowest level information of the healthcare insurance claim. Firstly, we propose a scoring model based on which abusive providers are detected and show that the review process with the proposed model is more efficient than that with the previous model which uses the provider-level variables as input variables. At the same time, we devise the evaluation metrics to quantify the efficiency of the review process. Secondly, we propose the method of detecting overtreatment under seasonality, which reflects more reality to the model. We propose a model embodying multiple structures specific to DRG codes selected as important for each given department. We show that the proposed method is more robust to the seasonality than the previous method. Thirdly, we propose an overtreatment detection model accounting for heterogeneous treatment between practitioners. We proposed a network-based approach through which the relationship between the diseases and treatments is considered during the overtreatment detection process. Experimental results show that the proposed method classify the treatment well which does not explicitly exist in the training set. From these works, we show that using treatment data allows modeling abuse detection at various levels: treatment, claim, and provider-level.사람들의 기대수명이 증가함에 따라 삶의 질을 향상시키기 위해 보건의료에 소비하는 금액은 증가하고 있다. 그러나, 비싼 의료 서비스 비용은 필연적으로 개인과 가정에게 큰 재정적 부담을 주게된다. 이를 방지하기 위해, 많은 국가에서는 공공 의료 보험 시스템을 도입하여 사람들이 적절한 가격에 의료서비스를 받을 수 있도록 하고 있다. 일반적으로, 환자가 먼저 서비스를 받고 나서 일부만 지불하고 나면, 보험 회사가 사후에 해당 의료 기관에 잔여 금액을 상환을 하는 제도로 운영된다. 그러나 이러한 제도를 악용하여 환자의 질병을 조작하거나 과잉진료를 하는 등의 부당청구가 발생하기도 한다. 이러한 행위들은 의료 시스템에서 발생하는 주요 재정 손실의 이유 중 하나로, 이를 방지하기 위해, 보험회사에서는 의료 전문가를 고용하여 의학적 정당성여부를 일일히 검사한다. 그러나, 이러한 검토과정은 매우 비싸고 많은 시간이 소요된다. 이러한 검토과정을 효율적으로 하기 위해, 데이터마이닝 기법을 활용하여 문제가 있는 청구서나 청구 패턴이 비정상적인 의료 서비스 공급자를 탐지하는 연구가 있어왔다. 그러나, 이러한 연구들은 데이터로부터 청구서 단위나 공급자 단위의 변수를 유도하여 모델을 학습한 사례들로, 가장 낮은 단위의 데이터인 진료 내역 데이터를 활용하지 못했다. 이 논문에서는 청구서에서 가장 낮은 단위의 데이터인 진료 내역 데이터를 활용하여 부당청구를 탐지하는 방법론을 제안한다. 첫째, 비정상적인 청구 패턴을 갖는 의료 서비스 제공자를 탐지하는 방법론을 제안하였다. 이를 실제 데이터에 적용하였을 때, 기존의 공급자 단위의 변수를 사용한 방법보다 더 효율적인 심사가 이루어 짐을 확인하였다. 이 때, 효율성을 정량화하기 위한 평가 척도도 제안하였다. 둘째로, 청구서의 계절성이 존재하는 상황에서 과잉진료를 탐지하는 방법을 제안하였다. 이 때, 진료 과목단위로 모델을 운영하는 대신 질병군(DRG) 단위로 모델을 학습하고 평가하는 방법을 제안하였다. 그리고 실제 데이터에 적용하였을 때, 제안한 방법이 기존 방법보다 계절성에 더 강건함을 확인하였다. 셋째로, 동일 환자에 대해서 의사간의 상이한 진료 패턴을 갖는 환경에서의 과잉진료 탐지 방법을 제안하였다. 이는 환자의 질병과 진료내역간의 관계를 네트워크 기반으로 모델링하는것을 기반으로 한다. 실험 결과 제안한 방법이 학습 데이터에서 나타나지 않는 진료 패턴에 대해서도 잘 분류함을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 이러한 연구들로부터 진료 내역을 활용하였을 때, 진료내역, 청구서, 의료 서비스 제공자 등 다양한 레벨에서의 부당 청구를 탐지할 수 있음을 확인하였다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Detection of Abusive Providers by department with Neural Network 9 2.1 Background 9 2.2 Literature Review 12 2.2.1 Abnormality Detection in Healthcare Insurance with Datamining Technique 12 2.2.2 Feed-Forward Neural Network 17 2.3 Proposed Method 21 2.3.1 Calculating the Likelihood of Abuse for each Treatment with Deep Neural Network 22 2.3.2 Calculating the Abuse Score of the Provider 25 2.4 Experiments 26 2.4.1 Data Description 27 2.4.2 Experimental Settings 32 2.4.3 Evaluation Measure (1): Relative Efficiency 33 2.4.4 Evaluation Measure (2): Precision at k 37 2.5 Results 38 2.5.1 Results in the test set 38 2.5.2 The Relationship among the Claimed Amount, the Abused Amount and the Abuse Score 40 2.5.3 The Relationship between the Performance of the Treatment Scoring Model and Review Efficiency 41 2.5.4 Treatment Scoring Model Results 42 2.5.5 Post-deployment Performance 44 2.6 Summary 45 Chapter 3 Detection of overtreatment by Diagnosis-related Group with Neural Network 48 3.1 Background 48 3.2 Literature review 51 3.2.1 Seasonality in disease 51 3.2.2 Diagnosis related group 52 3.3 Proposed method 54 3.3.1 Training a deep neural network model for treatment classi fication 55 3.3.2 Comparing the Performance of DRG-based Model against the department-based Model 57 3.4 Experiments 60 3.4.1 Data Description and Preprocessing 60 3.4.2 Performance Measures 64 3.4.3 Experimental Settings 65 3.5 Results 65 3.5.1 Overtreatment Detection 65 3.5.2 Abnormal Claim Detection 67 3.6 Summary 68 Chapter 4 Detection of overtreatment with graph embedding of disease-treatment pair 70 4.1 Background 70 4.2 Literature review 72 4.2.1 Graph embedding methods 73 4.2.2 Application of graph embedding methods to biomedical data analysis 79 4.2.3 Medical concept embedding methods 87 4.3 Proposed method 88 4.3.1 Network construction 89 4.3.2 Link Prediction between the Disease and the Treatment 90 4.3.3 Overtreatment Detection 93 4.4 Experiments 96 4.4.1 Data Description 97 4.4.2 Experimental Settings 99 4.5 Results 102 4.5.1 Network Construction 102 4.5.2 Link Prediction between the Disease and the Treatment 104 4.5.3 Overtreatment Detection 105 4.6 Summary 106 Chapter 5 Conclusion 108 5.1 Contribution 108 5.2 Future Work 110 Bibliography 112 국문초록 129Docto

Statistical approaches to viral phylodynamics

The recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in the quantity and quality of genomic data collected from human and animal pathogens, viruses in particular. When coupled with mathematical and statistical models, these data allow us to combine evolutionary theory and epidemiology to understand pathogen dynamics. While these developments led to important epidemiological questions being tackled, it also exposed the need for improved analytical methods. In this thesis I employ modern statistical techniques to address two pressing issues in phylodynamics: (i) computational tools for Bayesian phylogenetics and (ii) data integration. I detail the development and testing of new transition kernels for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for time-calibrated phylogenetics in Chapter 2 and show that an adaptive kernel leads to improved MCMC performance in terms of mixing for a range of data sets, in particular for a challenging Ebola virus phylogeny with 1610 taxa/sequences. As a trade-off, I also found that the new adaptive kernels have longer warm up times in general, suggesting room for improvement. Chapter 3 shows how to apply state-of-the-art techniques to visualise and analyse phylogenetic space and MCMC for time-calibrated phylogenies, which are crucial to the viral phylodynamics analysis pipeline. I describe a pipeline for a typical phylodynamic analysis which includes convergence diagnostics for continuous parameters and in phylogenetic space, extending existing methods to deal with large time-calibrated phylogenies. In addition I investigate different representations of phylogenetic space through multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) or univariate distributions of distances to a focal tree and show that even for the simplest toy examples phylogenetic space remains complex and in particular not all metrics lead to desirable or useful representations. On the data integration front, Chapters 4 and 5 detail the use data from the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa to show how one can combine phylogenetic and epidemiological data to tackle epidemiological questions. I explore the determinants of the Ebola epidemic in Chapter 4 through a generalised linear model framework coupled with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) to assess the relative importance climatic and socio-economic variables on EVD number of cases. In Chapter 5 I tackle the question of whether a particular glycoprotein mutation could lead to increased human mortality from EVD. I show that a principled analysis of the available data that accounts for several sources of uncertainty as well as shared ancestry between samples does not allow us to ascertain the presence of such effect of a viral mutation on mortality. Chapter 6 attempts to bring the findings of the thesis together and discuss how the field of phylodynamics, in special its methodological aspect, might move forward

The Effect of Malaysia General Election on Financial Network: An Evidence from Shariah-Compliant Stocks on Bursa Malaysia

Instead of focusing the volatility of the market, the market participants should consider on how the general election affects the correlation between the stocks during 14th general election Malaysia. The 14th general election of Malaysia was held on 9th May 2018. This event has a great impact towards the stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia. Thus, this study investigates the effect of 14th general election Malaysia towards the correlation between stock in Bursa Malaysia specifically the shariah-compliant stock. In addition, this paper examines the changes in terms of network topology for the duration, sixth months before and after the general election. The minimum spanning tree was used to visualize the correlation between the stocks. Also, the centrality measure, namely degree, closeness and betweenness were computed to identify if any changes of stocks that plays a crucial role in the network for the duration of before and after 14th general election Malaysia