6,094 research outputs found
Phylodynamics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2005-2010: Potential for Molecular Surveillance of New Outbreaks.
Previous Bayesian phylogeographic studies of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) explored the origin and spread of the epidemic from China into Russia, indicating that HPAIV circulated in Russia prior to its detection there in 2005. In this study, we extend this research to explore the evolution and spread of HPAIV within Europe during the 2005-2010 epidemic, using all available sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene regions that were collected in Europe and Russia during the outbreak. We use discrete-trait phylodynamic models within a Bayesian statistical framework to explore the evolution of HPAIV. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and effective population size of HPAIV peaked between mid-2005 and early 2006, followed by drastic decline in 2007, which coincides with the end of the epidemic in Europe. Our results also suggest that domestic birds were the most likely source of the spread of the virus from Russia into Europe. Additionally, estimates of viral dispersal routes indicate that Russia, Romania, and Germany were key epicenters of these outbreaks. Our study quantifies the dynamics of a major European HPAIV pandemic and substantiates the ability of phylodynamic models to improve molecular surveillance of novel AIVs
Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas
The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework
Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate
complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions
between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host life cycle, and the
space structure of the population. Here we focus on the competition between two
acute infections and we address the role of host mobility and cross-immunity in
shaping possible dominance/co-dominance regimes. Host mobility is modelled as a
network of traveling flows connecting nodes of a metapopulation, and the
two-pathogen dynamics is simulated with a stochastic mechanistic approach.
Results depict a complex scenario where, according to the relation among the
epidemiological parameters of the two pathogens, mobility can either be
non-influential for the competition dynamics or play a critical role in
selecting the dominant pathogen. The characterisation of the parameter space
can be explained in terms of the trade-off between pathogen's spreading
velocity and its ability to diffuse in a sparse environment. Variations in the
cross-immunity level induce a transition between presence and absence of
competition. The present study disentangles the role of the relevant biological
and ecological factors in the competition dynamics, and provides relevant
insights into the spatial ecology of infectious diseases.Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Final version accepted for publication
in Scientific Report
Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US
Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its
possible containment at a global level taking into account all available
information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic
model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban
areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a
sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and
initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each
spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the
pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared
the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel
restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the
inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence
probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs
in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a
reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use
sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction
with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly
contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the
unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20%
of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of
limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we
demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the
containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that
made part of their resources available for global use.Comment: 16 page
Replication, Pathogenesis and Transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus in Non-Immune Pigs
The declaration of the human influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (H1N1/09) raised important questions, including origin and host range [1,2]. Two of the three pandemics in the last century resulted in the spread of virus to pigs (H1N1, 1918; H3N2, 1968) with subsequent independent establishment and evolution within swine worldwide [3]. A key public and veterinary health consideration in the context of the evolving pandemic is whether the H1N1/09 virus could become established in pig populations [4]. We performed an infection and transmission study in pigs with A/California/07/09. In combination, clinical, pathological, modified influenza A matrix gene real time RT-PCR and viral genomic analyses have shown that infection results in the induction of clinical signs, viral pathogenesis restricted to the respiratory tract, infection dynamics consistent with endemic strains of influenza A in pigs, virus transmissibility between pigs and virus-host adaptation events. Our results demonstrate that extant H1N1/09 is fully capable of becoming established in global pig populations. We also show the roles of viral receptor specificity in both transmission and tissue tropism. Remarkably, following direct inoculation of pigs with virus quasispecies differing by amino acid substitutions in the haemagglutinin receptor-binding site, only virus with aspartic acid at position 225 (225D) was detected in nasal secretions of contact infected pigs. In contrast, in lower respiratory tract samples from directly inoculated pigs, with clearly demonstrable pulmonary pathology, there was apparent selection of a virus variant with glycine (225G). These findings provide potential clues to the existence and biological significance of viral receptor-binding variants with 225D and 225G during the 1918 pandemic [5]
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