Forecasting the geomagnetic activity of the Dst Index using radial basis function networks

The Dst index is a key parameter which characterises the disturbance of the geomagnetic field in magnetic storms. Modelling of the Dst index is thus very important for the analysis of the geomagnetic field. A data-based modelling approach, aimed at obtaining efficient models based on limited input-output observational data, provides a powerful tool for analysing and forecasting geomagnetic activities including the prediction of the Dst index. Radial basis function (RBF) networks are an important and popular network model for nonlinear system identification and dynamical modelling. A novel generalised multiscale RBF (MSRBF) network is introduced for Dst index modelling. The proposed MSRBF network can easily be converted into a linear-in-the-parameters form and the training of the linear network model can easily be implemented using an orthogonal least squares (OLS) type algorithm. One advantage of the new MSRBF network, compared with traditional single scale RBF networks, is that the new network is more flexible for describing complex nonlinear dynamical systems

A unified wavelet-based modelling framework for non-linear system identification: the WANARX model structure

A new unified modelling framework based on the superposition of additive submodels, functional components, and wavelet decompositions is proposed for non-linear system identification. A non-linear model, which is often represented using a multivariate non-linear function, is initially decomposed into a number of functional components via the wellknown analysis of variance (ANOVA) expression, which can be viewed as a special form of the NARX (non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs) model for representing dynamic input–output systems. By expanding each functional component using wavelet decompositions including the regular lattice frame decomposition, wavelet series and multiresolution wavelet decompositions, the multivariate non-linear model can then be converted into a linear-in-theparameters problem, which can be solved using least-squares type methods. An efficient model structure determination approach based upon a forward orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm, which involves a stepwise orthogonalization of the regressors and a forward selection of the relevant model terms based on the error reduction ratio (ERR), is employed to solve the linear-in-the-parameters problem in the present study. The new modelling structure is referred to as a wavelet-based ANOVA decomposition of the NARX model or simply WANARX model, and can be applied to represent high-order and high dimensional non-linear systems

The wavelet-NARMAX representation : a hybrid model structure combining polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions

A new hybrid model structure combing polynomial models with multiresolution wavelet decompositions is introduced for nonlinear system identification. Polynomial models play an important role in approximation theory, and have been extensively used in linear and nonlinear system identification. Wavelet decompositions, in which the basis functions have the property of localization in both time and frequency, outperform many other approximation schemes and offer a flexible solution for approximating arbitrary functions. Although wavelet representations can approximate even severe nonlinearities in a given signal very well, the advantage of these representations can be lost when wavelets are used to capture linear or low-order nonlinear behaviour in a signal. In order to sufficiently utilise the global property of polynomials and the local property of wavelet representations simultaneously, in this study polynomial models and wavelet decompositions are combined together in a parallel structure to represent nonlinear input-output systems. As a special form of the NARMAX model, this hybrid model structure will be referred to as the WAvelet-NARMAX model, or simply WANARMAX. Generally, such a WANARMAX representation for an input-output system might involve a large number of basis functions and therefore a great number of model terms. Experience reveals that only a small number of these model terms are significant to the system output. A new fast orthogonal least squares algorithm, called the matching pursuit orthogonal least squares (MPOLS) algorithm, is also introduced in this study to determine which terms should be included in the final model

Surface profile prediction and analysis applied to turning process

An approach for the prediction of surface profile in turning process using Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks is presented. The input parameters of the RBF networks are cutting speed, depth of cut and feed rate. The output parameters are Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) vector of surface profile for the prediction of surface profile. The RBF networks are trained with adaptive optimal training parameters related to cutting parameters and predict surface profile using the corresponding optimal network topology for each new cutting condition. A very good performance of surface profile prediction, in terms of agreement with experimental data, was achieved with high accuracy, low cost and high speed. It is found that the RBF networks have the advantage over Back Propagation (BP) neural networks. Furthermore, a new group of training and testing data were also used to analyse the influence of tool wear and chip formation on prediction accuracy using RBF neural networks

Fuzzy local linear approximation-based sequential design

When approximating complex high-fidelity black box simulators with surrogate models, the experimental design is often created sequentially. LOLA-Voronoi, a powerful state of the art method for sequential design combines an Exploitation and Exploration algorithm and adapts the sampling distribution to provide extra samples in non-linear regions. The LOLA algorithm estimates gradients to identify interesting regions, but has a bad complexity which results in long computation time when simulators are high-dimensional. In this paper, a new gradient estimation approach for the LOLA algorithm is proposed based on Fuzzy Logic. Experiments show the new method is a lot faster and results in experimental designs of comparable quality

Lattice dynamical wavelet neural networks implemented using particle swarm optimisation for spatio-temporal system identification

Starting from the basic concept of coupled map lattices, a new family of adaptive wavelet neural networks, called lattice dynamical wavelet neural networks (LDWNN), is introduced for spatiotemporal system identification, by combining an efficient wavelet representation with a coupled map lattice model. A new orthogonal projection pursuit (OPP) method, coupled with a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm, is proposed for augmenting the proposed network. A novel two-stage hybrid training scheme is developed for constructing a parsimonious network model. In the first stage, by applying the orthogonal projection pursuit algorithm, significant wavelet-neurons are adaptively and successively recruited into the network, where adjustable parameters of the associated waveletneurons are optimised using a particle swarm optimiser. The resultant network model, obtained in the first stage, may however be redundant. In the second stage, an orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm is then applied to refine and improve the initially trained network by removing redundant wavelet-neurons from the network. The proposed two-stage hybrid training procedure can generally produce a parsimonious network model, where a ranked list of wavelet-neurons, according to the capability of each neuron to represent the total variance in the system output signal is produced. Two spatio-temporal system identification examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed new modelling framework

NARX-based nonlinear system identification using orthogonal least squares basis hunting

An orthogonal least squares technique for basis hunting (OLS-BH) is proposed to construct sparse radial basis function (RBF) models for NARX-type nonlinear systems. Unlike most of the existing RBF or kernel modelling methods, whichplaces the RBF or kernel centers at the training input data points and use a fixed common variance for all the regressors, the proposed OLS-BH technique tunes the RBF center and diagonal covariance matrix of individual regressor by minimizing the training mean square error. An efficient optimization method isadopted for this basis hunting to select regressors in an orthogonal forward selection procedure. Experimental results obtained using this OLS-BH technique demonstrate that it offers a state-of-the-art method for constructing parsimonious RBF models with excellent generalization performance

State-of-the-art in aerodynamic shape optimisation methods

Aerodynamic optimisation has become an indispensable component for any aerodynamic design over the past 60 years, with applications to aircraft, cars, trains, bridges, wind turbines, internal pipe flows, and cavities, among others, and is thus relevant in many facets of technology. With advancements in computational power, automated design optimisation procedures have become more competent, however, there is an ambiguity and bias throughout the literature with regards to relative performance of optimisation architectures and employed algorithms. This paper provides a well-balanced critical review of the dominant optimisation approaches that have been integrated with aerodynamic theory for the purpose of shape optimisation. A total of 229 papers, published in more than 120 journals and conference proceedings, have been classified into 6 different optimisation algorithm approaches. The material cited includes some of the most well-established authors and publications in the field of aerodynamic optimisation. This paper aims to eliminate bias toward certain algorithms by analysing the limitations, drawbacks, and the benefits of the most utilised optimisation approaches. This review provides comprehensive but straightforward insight for non-specialists and reference detailing the current state for specialist practitioners

Magnetic Modelling of Synchronous Reluctance and Internal Permanent Magnet Motors Using Radial Basis Function Networks

The general trend toward more intelligent energy-aware ac drives is driving the development of new motor topologies and advanced model-based control techniques. Among the candidates, pure reluctance and anisotropic permanent magnet motors are gaining popularity, despite their complex structure. The availability of accurate mathematical models that describe these motors is essential to the design of any model-based advanced control. This paper focuses on the relations between currents and flux linkages, which are obtained through innovative radial basis function neural networks. These special drive-oriented neural networks take as inputs the motor voltages and currents, returning as output the motor flux linkages, inclusive of any nonlinearity and cross-coupling effect. The theoretical foundations of the radial basis function networks, the design hints, and a commented series of experimental results on a real laboratory prototype are included in this paper. The simple structure of the neural network fits for implementation on standard drives. The online training and tracking will be the next steps in field programmable gate array based control systems