The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage

The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been a source of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers and merchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especially given that some market movements did not appear to be justified by economic fundamentals. An emerging research literature examines the possible influence of futures traders, and particularly the non-traditional Index Traders, on the well-functioning of futures markets and underlying commodity markets. Cotton is a relatively under-studied commodity that is of particular importance for producers in the South and Southwest. To this end, this paper asks the following questions: (1) What role have (primarily long-only) Index Traders played, if we simultaneously account for important ongoing changes in cotton economic fundamentals? (2) Have seasonal and long-run patterns of convenience yield and price volatility changed during or since the commodity bull cycle? (3) How well do the data support a theory of storage model using the concept of convenience yield, and has the relationship changed with the commodity bull cycle? The results presented in this paper suggest that traditional, well-established economic relationships for cotton futures markets clearly have been disrupted during the period 2006- 2009. However, we find no direct evidence to support the claim that Index Traders are responsible for changes in prices or volatility.Cotton, futures markets, theory of storage, convenience yield, Index Traders, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Dialectic tensions in the financial markets: a longitudinal study of pre- and post-crisis regulatory technology

This article presents the findings from a longitudinal research study on regulatory technology in the UK financial services industry. The financial crisis with serious corporate and mutual fund scandals raised the profile of compliance as governmental bodies, institutional and private investors introduced a ‘tsunami’ of financial regulations. Adopting a multi-level analysis, this study examines how regulatory technology was used by financial firms to meet their compliance obligations, pre- and post-crisis. Empirical data collected over 12 years examine the deployment of an investment management system in eight financial firms. Interviews with public regulatory bodies, financial institutions and technology providers reveal a culture of compliance with increased transparency, surveillance and accountability. Findings show that dialectic tensions arise as the pursuit of transparency, surveillance and accountability in compliance mandates is simultaneously rationalized, facilitated and obscured by regulatory technology. Responding to these challenges, regulatory bodies continue to impose revised compliance mandates on financial firms to force them to adapt their financial technologies in an ever-changing multi-jurisdictional regulatory landscape

Evidence of Decline in Shark Fin Demand: China

Many of the planet's vulnerable shark species face extreme population pressures due to overfishing often driven by demand for their fins. In recent years, with its growing economy, China has emerged as the largest market for shark fin. Consumer awareness campaigns that focus on demand reduction are vital to addressing this urgent crisis. Since 2006, WildAid's culturally sensitive and celebritydriven multimedia campaigns focused on shark fin demand reduction have reached hundreds of millions of consumers throughout China on broadcast and satellite television, LCD screens on trains and in subway and railway stations, airports, airline in-flight entertainment, shopping malls, banks, taxis, universities and hospitals. To enhance their impact these public service announcements and social media campaigns feature celebrity ambassadors, such as Yao Ming, Jackie Chan and David Beckham, promoting the message, "When the buying stops, the killing can too."In 2012, the impact of demand reduction campaigns became more pronounced and was further boosted by the Chinese government's announced ban on shark fin at state banquets, and the resulting extensive media coverage of the issue by Chinese State television (CCTV). In 2013, WildAid's demand reduction campaigns leveraged US$164 million in pro-bono media placement via state and private media partnerships in China. Recent consumer surveys indicated that these demand reduction campaigns have been broadly viewed and reportedly have prompted many people to give up shark fin soup in China. This report compiles recent information on consumer behavior and changes in the prices of shark fin in the markets from a variety of independent sources. As any one survey or study provides only a snapshot and is usually limited in scope, this report aims to provide a more complete picture of current shark fin demand

Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior

Structure, conduct and performance of grain trading in Tigray and its impact on demand for commodity exchange: The case Maychew, Mokone, Alemata, Mekelle and Himora

Grain markets of Alemata, Maychew, Mokone, Mekelle and Himora are observed to operate in highly inefficient market structure, with very low level of trust at meso and macro level. As result the marking system is less developed and less efficient in terms of creating space and time utility. In which lack of finance is the most critical problem. Under such reality warehouse receipt system with receipts that can be used as collateral for loan are critical first stage needed to get the market right. If ECX’s exchange service has to be introduced it has to be low cost and low value added service, if not it may not find significant demand among grain traders.commodity exchange; Ethiopian Commodity exchange; social capital; networks; grain trade; warehouse receipt

Investigating poultry trade patterns to guide avian influenza surveillance and control: a case study in Vietnam

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health

Conflicts of Interest in Derivatives Clearing

[Excerpt] The financial crisis implicated the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market as a source of systemic risk. In the wake of the crisis, lawmakers sought to reduce systemic risk to the financial system by regulating this market. One of the reforms that Congress introduced in the Dodd-Frank Act (P.L. 111-203) was mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives through clearinghouses, in an effort to remake the OTC market more in the image of the regulated futures exchanges. Clearinghouses require traders to put down cash or liquid assets, called margin, to cover potential losses and prevent any firm from building up a large uncapitalized exposure, as happened in the case of the American International Group (AIG). Clearinghouses thus limit the size of a cleared position based on a firm’s ability to post margin to cover its potential losses. As lawmakers focused on clearing requirements to reduce systemic risk, concerns also arose as to whether the small number of large swaps dealers in existence—mostly the largest banks—might influence clearinghouses or trading platforms in ways that could undermine the efficacy of the approach. Concerns about conflicts of interest in clearing center around whether, if large swap dealers dominate a clearinghouse, they might directly or indirectly restrict access to the clearinghouse; whether they might limit the scope of derivatives products eligible for clearing; or whether they might influence a clearinghouse to lower margin requirements. Trading in OTC derivatives is in fact concentrated around a dozen or so major dealers. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) estimated that, as of the third quarter of 2010, five large commercial banks in the United States represented 96% of the banking industry’s total notional amounts of all derivatives; and those five banks represented 81% of the industry’s net credit exposure to derivatives. The first group of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) recipients included nearly all the large derivatives dealers. As a result of the high degree of market concentration, the failure of a large swaps dealer still has the potential to result in the nullification of tens of billions of dollars worth of contracts, which could pose a systemic threat. A 2009-proposed amendment proposed to H.R. 4173, which passed the House, would have limited ownership interest and governance of the new derivatives clearinghouses by certain large financial institutions and major swap participants. Sections 726 and 765 in the final version of the Dodd-Frank Act mandate that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), respectively, must adopt rules to mitigate conflicts of interest. However, it allowed the agencies to decide whether those rules include strict numerical limits on ownership or control. In the CFTC’s proposed rules to mitigate conflicts of interest, published on October 18, 2010, and on January 6, 2011, the CFTC did choose to adopt strict ownership limits, along the lines of the Lynch amendment. The SEC’s proposed rule, published on October 13, 2010, does the same. This report examines how conflicts of interest may arise and analyzes the measures that the CFTC and SEC proposed to address them. It discusses what effect, if any, ownership and control limits may have on derivatives clearing; and whether such limits effectively address the types of conflicts of interest that are of concern to some in the 112th Congress. These rulemakings may interest the 112th Congress as part of its oversight authority for the CFTC and SEC. Trends in clearing and trading derivatives, and the ownership of swap clearinghouses, are discussed in the Appendix

Developing methods for strategic evaluation in agricultural research and production

We analyze instruments to evaluate investment strategies as new options for co-operatives within the wheat production chain. Using a value-based management the extension of our concept, a “cooperative balanced scorecard” is discussed as we propose the further differentiation of the scorecard’s financial perspective. This is a market development-driven approach as cooperatives may be regarded as commodity-price-intermediators for their members. Proposing this approach we use a simple model of conjoint-hedging in intermediating firms within agribusiness.Agribusiness, Wheat Production, Cooperatives, Intermediation, Value-based Management, Commodity Markets., Agricultural and Food Policy,