Robust aerodynamic design of variable speed wind turbine rotors

This study focuses on the robust aerodynamic design of the bladed rotor of small horizontal axis wind turbines. The optimization process also considers the effects of manufacturing and assembly tolerances on the yearly energy production. The aerodynamic performance of the rotors so designed has reduced sensitivity to manufacturing and assembly errors. The geometric uncertainty affecting the rotor shape is represented by normal distributions of the pitch angle of the blades, and the twist angle and chord of their airfoils. The aerodynamic module is a blade element momentum theory code. Both Monte Carlo-based and the Univariate ReducedQuadrature technique, a novel deterministic uncertainty propagationmethod, are used. The performance of the two approaches is assessed both interms of accuracy and computational speed. The adopted optimization method is based on a hybrid multi-objective evolutionary strategy. The presented results highlight that the sensitivity of the yearly production to geometric uncertainties can be reduced by reducing the rotational speed and increasing the aerodynamic blade loads

Stationary probability density of stochastic search processes in global optimization

A method for the construction of approximate analytical expressions for the stationary marginal densities of general stochastic search processes is proposed. By the marginal densities, regions of the search space that with high probability contain the global optima can be readily defined. The density estimation procedure involves a controlled number of linear operations, with a computational cost per iteration that grows linearly with problem size

Reliability-based design optimization of shells with uncertain geometry using adaptive Kriging metamodels

Optimal design under uncertainty has gained much attention in the past ten years due to the ever increasing need for manufacturers to build robust systems at the lowest cost. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) allows the analyst to minimize some cost function while ensuring some minimal performances cast as admissible failure probabilities for a set of performance functions. In order to address real-world engineering problems in which the performance is assessed through computational models (e.g., finite element models in structural mechanics) metamodeling techniques have been developed in the past decade. This paper introduces adaptive Kriging surrogate models to solve the RBDO problem. The latter is cast in an augmented space that "sums up" the range of the design space and the aleatory uncertainty in the design parameters and the environmental conditions. The surrogate model is used (i) for evaluating robust estimates of the failure probabilities (and for enhancing the computational experimental design by adaptive sampling) in order to achieve the requested accuracy and (ii) for applying a gradient-based optimization algorithm to get optimal values of the design parameters. The approach is applied to the optimal design of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells used in submarine engineering under uncertain geometric imperfections. For this application the performance of the structure is related to buckling which is addressed here by means of a finite element solution based on the asymptotic numerical method

Tropical Geometry of Phylogenetic Tree Space: A Statistical Perspective

Phylogenetic trees are the fundamental mathematical representation of evolutionary processes in biology. As data objects, they are characterized by the challenges associated with "big data," as well as the complication that their discrete geometric structure results in a non-Euclidean phylogenetic tree space, which poses computational and statistical limitations. We propose and study a novel framework to study sets of phylogenetic trees based on tropical geometry. In particular, we focus on characterizing our framework for statistical analyses of evolutionary biological processes represented by phylogenetic trees. Our setting exhibits analytic, geometric, and topological properties that are desirable for theoretical studies in probability and statistics, as well as increased computational efficiency over the current state-of-the-art. We demonstrate our approach on seasonal influenza data.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl