Adverse weather amplifies social media activity

Humanity spends an increasing proportion of its time interacting online. Scholars are intensively investigating the societal drivers and resultant impacts of this collective shift in our allocation of time and attention. Yet, the external factors that regularly shape online behavior remain markedly understudied. Do environmental factors alter rates of online activity? Here we show that adverse meteorological conditions markedly increase social media use in the United States. To do so, we employ climate econometric methods alongside over three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of individuals from both Facebook and Twitter between 2009 and 2016. We find that more extreme temperatures and added precipitation each independently amplify social media activity. Weather that is adverse on both the temperature and precipitation dimensions produces markedly larger increases in social media activity. On average across both platforms, compared to the temperate weather baseline, days colder than -5{\deg}C with 1.5-2cm of precipitation elevate social media activity by 35%. This effect is nearly three times the typical increase in social media activity observed on New Year's Eve in New York City. We observe meteorological effects on social media participation at both the aggregate and individual level, even accounting for individual-specific, temporal, and location-specific potential confounds

Faces in the crowd:Twitter as alternative to protest surveys

Who goes to protests? To answer this question, existing research has relied either on retrospective surveys of populations or in-protest surveys of participants. Both techniques are prohibitively costly and face logistical and methodological constraints. In this article, we investigate the possibility of surveying protests using Twitter. We propose two techniques for sampling protestors on the ground from digital traces and estimate the demographic and ideological composition of ten protestor crowds using multidimensional scaling and machine-learning techniques. We test the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to two in-protest surveys from the 2017 Women’s March in Washington, D.C. Results show that our Twitter sampling techniques are superior to hashtag sampling alone. They also approximate the ideology and gender distributions derived from on-the-ground surveys, albeit with some bias, but fail to retrieve accurate age group estimates. We conclude that online samples are yet unable to provide reliable representative samples of offline protest

Migrant mobility flows characterized with digital data

Monitoring migration flows is crucial to respond to humanitarian crisis and to design efficient policies. This information usually comes from surveys and border controls, but timely accessibility and methodological concerns reduce its usefulness. Here, we propose a method to detect migration flows worldwide using geolocated Twitter data. We focus on the migration crisis in Venezuela and show that the calculated flows are consistent with official statistics at country level. Our method is versatile and far-reaching, as it can be used to study different features of migration as preferred routes, settlement areas, mobility through several countries, spatial integration in cities, etc. It provides finer geographical and temporal resolutions, allowing the exploration of issues not contemplated in official records. It is our hope that these new sources of information can complement official ones, helping authorities and humanitarian organizations to better assess when and where to intervene on the ground

Loglinear model selection and human mobility

Methods for selecting loglinear models were among Steve Fienberg’s research interests since the start of his long and fruitful career. After we dwell upon the string of papers focusing on loglinear models that can be partly attributed to Steve’s contributions and influential ideas, we develop a new algorithm for selecting graphical loglinear models that is suitable for analyzing hyper-sparse contingency tables. We show how multi-way contingency tables can be used to represent patterns of human mobility. We analyze a dataset of geolocated tweets from South Africa that comprises 46 million latitude/longitude locations of 476,601 Twitter users that is summarized as a contingency table with 214 variables

Semantics-Space-Time Cube. A Conceptual Framework for Systematic Analysis of Texts in Space and Time

We propose an approach to analyzing data in which texts are associated with spatial and temporal references with the aim to understand how the text semantics vary over space and time. To represent the semantics, we apply probabilistic topic modeling. After extracting a set of topics and representing the texts by vectors of topic weights, we aggregate the data into a data cube with the dimensions corresponding to the set of topics, the set of spatial locations (e.g., regions), and the time divided into suitable intervals according to the scale of the planned analysis. Each cube cell corresponds to a combination (topic, location, time interval) and contains aggregate measures characterizing the subset of the texts concerning this topic and having the spatial and temporal references within these location and interval. Based on this structure, we systematically describe the space of analysis tasks on exploring the interrelationships among the three heterogeneous information facets, semantics, space, and time. We introduce the operations of projecting and slicing the cube, which are used to decompose complex tasks into simpler subtasks. We then present a design of a visual analytics system intended to support these subtasks. To reduce the complexity of the user interface, we apply the principles of structural, visual, and operational uniformity while respecting the specific properties of each facet. The aggregated data are represented in three parallel views corresponding to the three facets and providing different complementary perspectives on the data. The views have similar look-and-feel to the extent allowed by the facet specifics. Uniform interactive operations applicable to any view support establishing links between the facets. The uniformity principle is also applied in supporting the projecting and slicing operations on the data cube. We evaluate the feasibility and utility of the approach by applying it in two analysis scenarios using geolocated social media data for studying people's reactions to social and natural events of different spatial and temporal scales

Assessing the risks of "infodemics" in response to COVID-19 epidemics

Our society is built on a complex web of interdependencies whose effects become manifest during extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with shocks in one system propagating to the others to an exceptional extent. We analyzed more than 100 millions Twitter messages posted worldwide in 64 languages during the epidemic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 and classified the reliability of news diffused. We found that waves of unreliable and low-quality information anticipate the epidemic ones, exposing entire countries to irrational social behavior and serious threats for public health. When the epidemics hit the same area, reliable information is quickly inoculated, like antibodies, and the system shifts focus towards certified informational sources. Contrary to mainstream beliefs, we show that human response to falsehood exhibits early-warning signals that might be mitigated with adequate communication strategies.Comment: The dataset analyzed in this paper can be interactively visualized and accessed at https://covid19obs.fbk.eu