Predicting water availability in the Antarctic dry valleys using GIS and remote sensing

Water is one of the most important ingredients for life on Earth. The presence or absence of biologically available water determines whether or not life will exist. In Antarctica most water exists as ice and is not available for sustaining life. It is usually only during December and January that temperatures will rise above zero and melt water becomes available (Kennedy, 1993). For this reason Antarctica is regarded as the driest desert in the world (Peck et al., 2006, McKnight et al., 1999)

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

Dual-frequency GPS survey for validation of a regional DTM and for the generation of local DTM data for sea-level rise modelling in an estuarine salt marsh

Global average temperatures have risen by an average of 0.07°C per decade over the last 100 years, with a warming trend of 0.13°C per decade over the last 50 years. Temperatures are predicted to rise by 2°C - 4.4°C by 2100 leading to global average sealevel rise (SLR) of 2 – 6mm per year (20 – 60cms in total) up to 2100 (IPCC 2007) with impacts for protected coastal habitats in Ireland. Estuaries are predominantly sedimentary environments, and are characterised by shallow coastal slope gradients, making them sensitive to even modest changes in sea-level. The Shannon estuary is the largest river estuary in Ireland and is designated as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) under the EU Habitats Directive (EU 1992) providing protection for listed habitats within it, including estuarine salt marsh. Trends in Shannon estuary tidal data from 1877 – 2004 suggest an average upward SLR trend of 4 - 5mm/yr over this period. A simple linear extension of this historical trend would imply that local SLR will be in the region of 40 - 45cm by 2100. However, this may underestimate actual SLR for the estuary by 2100, since it takes no account of predicted climate-driven global SLR acceleration (IPCC 2007) up to 2100

Geoinformation, Geotechnology, and Geoplanning in the 1990s

Over the last decade, there have been some significant changes in the geographic information available to support those involved in spatial planning and policy-making in different contexts. Moreover, developments have occurred apace in the technology with which to handle geoinformation. This paper provides an overview of trends during the 1990s in data provision, in the technology required to manipulate and analyse spatial information, and in the domain of planning where applications of computer technology in the processing of geodata are prominent. It draws largely on experience in western Europe, and in the UK and the Netherlands in particular, and suggests that there are a number of pressures for a strengthened role for geotechnology in geoplanning in the years ahead

Empiricism and stochastics in cellular automaton modeling of urban land use dynamics

An increasing number of models for predicting land use change in regions of rapidurbanization are being proposed and built using ideas from cellular automata (CA)theory. Calibrating such models to real situations is highly problematic and to date,serious attention has not been focused on the estimation problem. In this paper, wepropose a structure for simulating urban change based on estimating land usetransitions using elementary probabilistic methods which draw their inspiration fromBayes' theory and the related ?weights of evidence? approach. These land use changeprobabilities drive a CA model ? DINAMICA ? conceived at the Center for RemoteSensing of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (CSR-UFMG). This is based on aneight cell Moore neighborhood approach implemented through empirical land useallocation algorithms. The model framework has been applied to a medium-size townin the west of São Paulo State, Bauru. We show how various socio-economic andinfrastructural factors can be combined using the weights of evidence approach whichenables us to predict the probability of changes between land use types in differentcells of the system. Different predictions for the town during the period 1979-1988were generated, and statistical validation was then conducted using a multipleresolution fitting procedure. These modeling experiments support the essential logicof adopting Bayesian empirical methods which synthesize various information aboutspatial infrastructure as the driver of urban land use change. This indicates therelevance of the approach for generating forecasts of growth for Brazilian citiesparticularly and for world-wide cities in general

Mapping the results of local statistics

The application of geographically weighted regression (GWR) – a local spatial statistical technique used to test for spatial nonstationarity – has grown rapidly in the social, health and demographic sciences. GWR is a useful exploratory analytical tool that generates a set of location-specific parameter estimates which can be mapped and analysed to provide information on spatial nonstationarity in relationships between predictors and the outcome variable. A major challenge to GWR users, however, is how best to map these parameter estimates. This paper introduces a simple mapping technique that combines local parameter estimates and local t-values on one map. The resultant map can facilitate the exploration and interpretation of nonstationarity.geographically weighted regression, local statistics, mapping, nonstationarity

Modeling the effect of predicted sea-level rise on coastal conservation habitats using GIS

Global average temperatures have in creased by about 0.6°C (± 0.2°C) during the 20th century, and are project ed to increase by 1.4 - 5.8°C by 2100 (IPCC, 2001a). The relationship between atmospheric warming and sea-level rise (SLR) is well understood, and this change is predicted to lead to SLR of up to 1m by 2100, cr eating consequences for coastal communities and environments worldwide (IPCC, 2001b)

Automatic grounding of vague geographic ontology in data

In constructing an ontological theory of a domain such as geography, it is important not only to take account of the vagueness and ambiguity which is inherent in many of the relevant concepts, but also to be able to relate the high-level definitions of the theory to actual sets of data of varying kinds. Any attempt to ignore or remove vagueness and ambiguity risks errors and conflict in the ontological theory with the knowledge of different domain experts, while an inability to ground the theory in real data limits its practical use. We present here a means of structuring such a theory to handle these issues in a principled manner, which lends itself to concrete implementation. We illustrate with reference to several examples from the domain of hydrography