A decision support system for managing results-based financed mega infrastructure programs

International Financial Institutions are exploring solutions that can ensure the effectiveness of funds with respect to the achievement of desired results/outputs. Results-Based finance (RBF) considers this goal through linking desired outputs to the disbursement of funds. This may require borrowers to pre-finance programs and then receive their allocated disbursements after results are achieved, which could form cash flow gaps. The management of this type of programs requires the integration of multiple projects management and finance-based scheduling with the financial requirements of results-based funding mechanisms. For proper management of received funds, this research introduces a framework for the simulation and optimization of RBF funded programs, that serves as a Decision Support System (DSS) for borrowers while implementing RBF. The Program-For-Results (P4R) mechanism, offered by the World Bank (WB), was used as one of the RBF mechanisms for verifying the developed framework. A model was developed for guiding borrowing governments through the full processes of P4R. The proposed model provides governments a step-by-step guide through each stage from initiation to program closing. For verification, the model was applied on a case study for presenting its capabilities. It was validated using the Sustainable Rural Sanitation Services Program (SRSSP) in Egypt, and it showed an improvement in the overall financial standing of the government. This model was developed and applied on the P4R mechanism; however, it applies to any other RBF mechanism as they share the same concepts and mechanisms

Artificial Intelligence and Bank Soundness: Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea - Part 2

Banks have experienced chronic weaknesses as well as frequent crisis over the years. As bank failures are costly and affect global economies, banks are constantly under intense scrutiny by regulators. This makes banks the most highly regulated industry in the world today. As banks grow into the 21st century framework, banks are in need to embrace Artificial Intelligence (AI) to not only to provide personalized world class service to its large database of customers but most importantly to survive. The chapter provides a taxonomy of bank soundness in the face of AI through the lens of CAMELS where C (Capital), A(Asset), M(Management), E(Earnings), L(Liquidity), S(Sensitivity). The taxonomy partitions challenges from the main strand of CAMELS into distinct categories of AI into 1(C), 4(A), 17(M), 8 (E), 1(L), 2(S) categories that banks and regulatory teams need to consider in evaluating AI use in banks. Although AI offers numerous opportunities to enable banks to operate more efficiently and effectively, at the same time banks also need to give assurance that AI ‘do no harm’ to stakeholders. Posing many unresolved questions, it seems that banks are trapped between the devil and the deep blue sea for now

A literature review on the application of evolutionary computing to credit scoring

The last years have seen the development of many credit scoring models for assessing the creditworthiness of loan applicants. Traditional credit scoring methodology has involved the use of statistical and mathematical programming techniques such as discriminant analysis, linear and logistic regression, linear and quadratic programming, or decision trees. However, the importance of credit grant decisions for financial institutions has caused growing interest in using a variety of computational intelligence techniques. This paper concentrates on evolutionary computing, which is viewed as one of the most promising paradigms of computational intelligence. Taking into account the synergistic relationship between the communities of Economics and Computer Science, the aim of this paper is to summarize the most recent developments in the application of evolutionary algorithms to credit scoring by means of a thorough review of scientific articles published during the period 2000–2012.This work has partially been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under grant TIN2009-14205 and the Generalitat Valenciana under grant PROMETEO/2010/028

Machine Learning and Finance: A Review using Latent Dirichlet Allocation Technique (LDA)

The aim of this paper is provide a first comprehensive structuring of the literature applying machine learning to finance. We use a probabilistic topic modelling approach to make sense of this diverse body of research spanning across the disciplines of finance, economics, computer sciences, and decision sciences. Through the topic modelling approach, a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Technique (LDA), we can extract the 14 coherent research topics that are the focus of the 6,148 academic articles during the years 1990-2019 analysed. We first describe and structure these topics, and then further show how the topic focus has evolved over the last two decades. Our study thus provides a structured topography for finance researchers seeking to integrate machine learning research approaches in their exploration of finance phenomena. We also showcase the benefits to finance researchers of the method of probabilistic modelling of topics for deep comprehension of a body of literature, especially when that literature has diverse multi-disciplinary actors

Nature inspired computational intelligence for financial contagion modelling

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Financial contagion refers to a scenario in which small shocks, which initially affect only a few financial institutions or a particular region of the economy, spread to the rest of the financial sector and other countries whose economies were previously healthy. This resembles the “transmission” of a medical disease. Financial contagion happens both at domestic level and international level. At domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission by defaulting on inter-bank liabilities, selling assets in a fire sale, and undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the failure of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent turmoil in the US financial markets. International financial contagion happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, and is the transmission of financial crises across financial markets. Within the current globalise financial system, with large volumes of cash flow and cross-regional operations of large banks and hedge funds, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously among both domestic institutions and across countries. There is no conclusive definition of financial contagion, most research papers study contagion by analyzing the change in the variance-covariance matrix during the period of market turmoil. King and Wadhwani (1990) first test the correlations between the US, UK and Japan, during the US stock market crash of 1987. Boyer (1997) finds significant increases in correlation during financial crises, and reinforces a definition of financial contagion as a correlation changing during the crash period. Forbes and Rigobon (2002) give a definition of financial contagion. In their work, the term interdependence is used as the alternative to contagion. They claim that for the period they study, there is no contagion but only interdependence. Interdependence leads to common price movements during periods both of stability and turmoil. In the past two decades, many studies (e.g. Kaminsky et at., 1998; Kaminsky 1999) have developed early warning systems focused on the origins of financial crises rather than on financial contagion. Further authors (e.g. Forbes and Rigobon, 2002; Caporale et al, 2005), on the other hand, have focused on studying contagion or interdependence. In this thesis, an overall mechanism is proposed that simulates characteristics of propagating crisis through contagion. Within that scope, a new co-evolutionary market model is developed, where some of the technical traders change their behaviour during crisis to transform into herd traders making their decisions based on market sentiment rather than underlying strategies or factors. The thesis focuses on the transformation of market interdependence into contagion and on the contagion effects. The author first build a multi-national platform to allow different type of players to trade implementing their own rules and considering information from the domestic and a foreign market. Traders’ strategies and the performance of the simulated domestic market are trained using historical prices on both markets, and optimizing artificial market’s parameters through immune - particle swarm optimization techniques (I-PSO). The author also introduces a mechanism contributing to the transformation of technical into herd traders. A generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity - copula (GARCH-copula) is further applied to calculate the tail dependence between the affected market and the origin of the crisis, and that parameter is used in the fitness function for selecting the best solutions within the evolving population of possible model parameters, and therefore in the optimization criteria for contagion simulation. The overall model is also applied in predictive mode, where the author optimize in the pre-crisis period using data from the domestic market and the crisis-origin foreign market, and predict in the crisis period using data from the foreign market and predicting the affected domestic market

How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?

The authors study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life-cycle model that includes households that live for many periods, production and capital, simple monetary and financial sectors, and a fairly elaborate government sector. The government’s taxation of capital income is not indexed for inflation. They find that a plausibly calibrated version of this model has a steady state that matches a variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. They use the model to estimate the welfare cost of permanent, policy-induced changes in the inflation rate and find that most of the costs of inflation are direct and indirect consequences of the fact that inflation increases the effective tax rate on capital income. The cost estimates are an order of magnitude larger than other estimates in the literature.Economic conditions - United States ; Inflation (Finance)

Optimisation of Rice Fertiliser Composition using Genetic Algorithms

There are so many problems with food scarcity. One of them is not too good rice quality. So, an enhancement in rice production through an optimal fertiliser composition. Genetic algorithm is used to optimise the composition for a more affordable price. The process of genetic algorithm is done by using a representation of a real code chromosome. The reproduction process using a one-cut point crossover and random mutation, while for the selection using binary tournament selection process for each chromosome. The test results showed the optimum results are obtained on the size of the population of 10, the crossover rate of 0.9 and the mutation rate of 0.1. The amount of generation is 10 with the best fitness value is generated is equal to 1,603

Improved credit scoring model using XGBoost with Bayesian hyper-parameter optimization

Several credit-scoring models have been developed using ensemble classifiers in order to improve the accuracy of assessment. However, among the ensemble models, little consideration has been focused on the hyper-parameters tuning of base learners, although these are crucial to constructing ensemble models. This study proposes an improved credit scoring model based on the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifier using Bayesian hyper-parameters optimization (XGB-BO). The model comprises two steps. Firstly, data pre-processing is utilized to handle missing values and scale the data. Secondly, Bayesian hyper-parameter optimization is applied to tune the hyper-parameters of the XGB classifier and used to train the model. The model is evaluated on four widely public datasets, i.e., the German, Australia, lending club, and Polish datasets. Several state-of-the-art classification algorithms are implemented for predictive comparison with the proposed method. The results of the proposed model showed promising results, with an improvement in accuracy of 4.10%, 3.03%, and 2.76% on the German, lending club, and Australian datasets, respectively. The proposed model outperformed commonly used techniques, e.g., decision tree, support vector machine, neural network, logistic regression, random forest, and bagging, according to the evaluation results. The experimental results confirmed that the XGB-BO model is suitable for assessing the creditworthiness of applicants

The Utility of "Even if..." Semifactual Explanation to Optimise Positive Outcomes

When users receive either a positive or negative outcome from an automated system, Explainable AI (XAI) has almost exclusively focused on how to mutate negative outcomes into positive ones by crossing a decision boundary using counterfactuals (e.g., \textit{"If you earn 2k more, we will accept your loan application"}). Here, we instead focus on \textit{positive} outcomes, and take the novel step of using XAI to optimise them (e.g., \textit{"Even if you wish to half your down-payment, we will still accept your loan application"}). Explanations such as these that employ "even if..." reasoning, and do not cross a decision boundary, are known as semifactuals. To instantiate semifactuals in this context, we introduce the concept of \textit{Gain} (i.e., how much a user stands to benefit from the explanation), and consider the first causal formalisation of semifactuals. Tests on benchmark datasets show our algorithms are better at maximising gain compared to prior work, and that causality is important in the process. Most importantly however, a user study supports our main hypothesis by showing people find semifactual explanations more useful than counterfactuals when they receive the positive outcome of a loan acceptance