Automatically Defined Templates for Improved Prediction of Non-stationary, Nonlinear Time Series in Genetic Programming

Soft methods of artificial intelligence are often used in the prediction of non-deterministic time series that cannot be modeled using standard econometric methods. These series, such as occur in finance, often undergo changes to their underlying data generation process resulting in inaccurate approximations or requiring additional human judgment and input in the process, hindering the potential for automated solutions. Genetic programming (GP) is a class of nature-inspired algorithms that aims to evolve a population of computer programs to solve a target problem. GP has been applied to time series prediction in finance and other domains. However, most GP-based approaches to these prediction problems do not consider regime change. This paper introduces two new genetic programming modularity techniques, collectively referred to as automatically defined templates, which better enable prediction of time series involving regime change. These methods, based on earlier established GP modularity techniques, take inspiration from software design patterns and are more closely modeled after the way humans actually develop software. Specifically, a regime detection branch is incorporated into the GP paradigm. Regime specific behavior evolves in a separate program branch, implementing the template method pattern. A system was developed to test, validate, and compare the proposed approach with earlier approaches to GP modularity. Prediction experiments were performed on synthetic time series and on the S&P 500 index. The performance of the proposed approach was evaluated by comparing prediction accuracy with existing methods. One of the two techniques proposed is shown to significantly improve performance of time series prediction in series undergoing regime change. The second proposed technique did not show any improvement and performed generally worse than existing methods or the canonical approaches. The difference in relative performance was shown to be due to a decoupling of reusable modules from the evolving main program population. This observation also explains earlier results regarding the inferior performance of genetic programming techniques using a similar, decoupled approach. Applied to financial time series prediction, the proposed approach beat a buy and hold return on the S&P 500 index as well as the return achieved by other regime aware genetic programming methodologies. No approach tested beat the benchmark return when factoring in transaction costs

Modelling and trading the Greek stock market with gene expression and genetic programing algorithms

This paper presents an application of the gene expression programming (GEP) and integrated genetic programming (GP) algorithms to the modelling of ASE 20 Greek index. GEP and GP are robust evolutionary algorithms that evolve computer programs in the form of mathematical expressions, decision trees or logical expressions. The results indicate that GEP and GP produce significant trading performance when applied to ASE 20 and outperform the well-known existing methods. The trading performance of the derived models is further enhanced by applying a leverage filter

Soft computing techniques applied to finance

Soft computing is progressively gaining presence in the financial world. The number of real and potential applications is very large and, accordingly, so is the presence of applied research papers in the literature. The aim of this paper is both to present relevant application areas, and to serve as an introduction to the subject. This paper provides arguments that justify the growing interest in these techniques among the financial community and introduces domains of application such as stock and currency market prediction, trading, portfolio management, credit scoring or financial distress prediction areas.Publicad

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table