6,107 research outputs found

    Prediction Time Assessment in a DDDAS for Natural Hazard Management: Forest Fire Study Case ✩

    Get PDF
    This work faces the problem of quality and prediction time assessment in a Dynamic Data Driven Application System (DDDAS) for predicting natural hazard evolution. In particular, we used forest fire spread prediction as a case study to show the applicability of the methodology. The improvement on the prediction quality when using a two-stage DDDAS prediction framework has been widely proved. The two-stages DDDAS has a first phase where an adjustment of the input data is performed in order to be applied in the second phase, the prediction. This paper is focused on defining a new methodology for prediction time assessment under this kind of prediction environments by evaluating, in advance, how a certain combination of simulator, computational resources, adjustment strategy, and frequency of data acquisition will perform, in terms of prediction time. Since the time incurred in the hazard simulation is a crucial part of the whole prediction time, we have defined a methodology to classify the simulator’s execution time using Artificial Intelligence techniques allowing us to determine upper bounds for the DDDAS prediction time depending on the particular input parameter setting. This methodology can be extrapolated to any DDDAS for predicting natural hazards evolution, which uses the two-stage prediction scheme as a working framework. Keywords

    A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

    Full text link
    Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

    Fire behavior modeling for operational decision-making

    Get PDF
    Simulation frameworks are necessary to facilitate decision-making to many fire agencies. An accurate estimation of fire behavior is required to analyze potential impact and risk. Applied research and technology together have improved the implementation of fire modeling, and decision-making in operational environments.Dr Cardil acknowledges the support of Technosylva USA and Wageningen University in his research stays in the USA and the Netherlands to develop this work. The authors of this paper acknowledges the support of the EUfunded PYROLIFE project (Reference: 860787; https://pyrolife.lessonsonfire.eu/), a project in which a new generation of experts will be trained in integrated wildfire management

    Applying probability theory for the quality assessment of a wildfire spread prediction framework based on genetic algorithms

    Get PDF
    This work presents a framework for assessing how the existing constraints at the time of attending an ongoing forest fire affect simulation results, both in terms of quality (accuracy) obtained and the time needed to make a decision. In the wildfire spread simulation and prediction area, it is essential to properly exploit the computational power offered by new computing advances. For this purpose, we rely on a two-stage prediction process to enhance the quality of traditional predictions, taking advantage of parallel computing. This strategy is based on an adjustment stage which is carried out by a well-known evolutionary technique: Genetic Algorithms. The core of this framework is evaluated according to the probability theory principles. Thus, a strong statistical study is presented and oriented towards the characterization of such an adjustment technique in order to help the operation managers deal with the two aspects previously mentioned: time and quality. The experimental work in this paper is based on a region in Spain which is one of the most prone to forest fires: El Cap de Creus

    Satellite Remote Sensing contributions to Wildland Fire Science and Management

    Get PDF
    No funding was received for this particular review, but support research was funded by the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative Programme to Dr. Chuvieco.This paper reviews the most recent literature related to the use of remote sensing (RS) data in wildland fire management. Recent Findings Studies dealing with pre-fire assessment, active fire detection, and fire effect monitoring are reviewed in this paper. The analysis follows the different fire management categories: fire prevention, detection, and post-fire assessment. Extracting the main trends from each of these temporal sections, recent RS literature shows growing support of the combined use of different sensors, particularly optical and radar data and lidar and optical passive images. Dedicated fire sensors have been developed in the last years, but still, most fire products are derived from sensors that were designed for other purposes. Therefore, the needs of fire managers are not always met, both in terms of spatial and temporal scales, favouring global over local scales because of the spatial resolution of existing sensors. Lidar use on fuel types and post-fire regeneration is more local, and mostly not operational, but future satellite lidar systems may help to obtain operational products. Regional and global scales are also combined in the last years, emphasizing the needs of using upscaling and merging methods to reduce uncertainties of global products. Validation is indicated as a critical phase of any new RS-based product. It should be based on the independent reference information acquired from statistically derived samples. The main challenges of using RS for fire management rely on the need to improve the integration of sensors and methods to meet user requirements, uncertainty characterization of products, and greater efforts on statistical validation approaches.European Space Agenc

    The Burning Bush: Linking LiDAR-derived Shrub Architecture to Flammability

    Get PDF
    Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) sensors are powerful tools for characterizing vegetation structure and for constructing three-dimensional (3D) models of trees, also known as quantitative structural models (QSM). 3D models and structural traits derived from them provide valuable information for biodiversity conservation, forest management, and fire behavior modeling. However, vegetation studies and 3D modeling methodologies often only focus on the forest canopy, with little attention given to understory vegetation. In particular, 3D structural information of shrubs is limited or not included in fire behavior models. Yet, understory vegetation is an important component of forested ecosystems, and has an essential role in determining fire behavior. In this dissertation, I explored the use of TLS data and quantitative structure models to model shrub architecture in three related studies. In the first study, I present a semi-automated methodology for reconstructing architecturally different shrubs from TLS LiDAR. By investigating shrubs with different architectures and point cloud densities, I showed that occlusion, shrub complexity, and shape greatly affect the accuracy of shrub models. In my second study, I assessed the 3D architectural drivers of understory flammability by evaluating the use of architectural metrics derived from the TLS point cloud and 3D reconstructions of the shrubs. I focused on eight species common in the understory of the fire-prone longleaf pine forest ecosystem of the state of Florida, USA. I found a general tendency for each species to be associated with a unique combination of flammability and architectural traits. Novel shrub architectural traits were found to be complementary to the direct use of TLS data and improved flammability predictions. The inherent complexity of shrub architecture and uncertainty in the TLS point cloud make scaling up from an individual shrub to a plot level a challenging task. Therefore, in my third study, I explored the effects of lidar uncertainty on vegetation parameter prediction accuracy. I developed a practical workflow to create synthetic forest stands with varying densities, which were subsequently scanned with simulated terrestrial lidar. This provided data sets quantitatively similar to those created by real-world LiDAR measurements, but with the advantage of exact knowledge of the forest plot parameters, The results showed that the lidar scan location had a large effect on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, occlusion is strongly related to the sampling density and plot complexity. The results of this study illustrate the potential of non-destructive lidar approaches for quantifying shrub architectural traits. TLS, empirical quantitative structural models, and synthetic models provide valuable insights into shrub structure and fire behavior

    Operational research IO 2021—analytics for a better world. XXI Congress of APDIO, Figueira da Foz, Portugal, November 7–8, 2021

    Get PDF
    This book provides the current status of research on the application of OR methods to solve emerging and relevant operations management problems. Each chapter is a selected contribution of the IO2021 - XXI Congress of APDIO, the Portuguese Association of Operational Research, held in Figueira da Foz from 7 to 8 November 2021. Under the theme of analytics for a better world, the book presents interesting results and applications of OR cutting-edge methods and techniques to various real-world problems. Of particular importance are works applying nonlinear, multi-objective optimization, hybrid heuristics, multicriteria decision analysis, data envelopment analysis, simulation, clustering techniques and decision support systems, in different areas such as supply chain management, production planning and scheduling, logistics, energy, telecommunications, finance and health. All chapters were carefully reviewed by the members of the scientific program committee.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Improving our understanding of individual wildfires by combining satellite data with fire spread modelling

    Get PDF
    Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de AgronomiaWildfires pose real threats to life and property. In Portugal, the recent year of 2017 had the largest burnt area extent and number of casualties. A knowledge gap still exists in wildfire research related with better understanding individual wildfires, which has important implications for fire suppression, management, and policies. Wildfire spread models have been used to study individual wildfires, however, associated uncertainties and the lack of systematic evaluation methods hamper their capability for accurately predicting their spread. Understanding how fire spread predictions can be improved is a critical research task, as they will only be deemed useful if they can provide accurate and reliable information to fire managers. The present Thesis proposes to contribute to improve fire spread predictions by: i) Developing a methodology to systematically evaluate fire spread predictions ii) Thoroughly characterizing input data uncertainty and its impact on predictions; iii) Improving predictions using data-driven model calibration. The spread of large historical wildfires were studied by combining satellite data and models. The major findings of the present Thesis were: i) Satellite data accurately contributed to provide accurate fire dates and ignition information for large wildfires. ii) The evaluation metrics were very useful in identifying areas and periods of low/high spatio-temporal agreement, highlighting the strong underprediction bias and poor accuracy of the predictions. iii) Uncertainties in wind speed and direction, fuel model assignment and typology, location and timing of ignitions, had a major impact on prediction accuracy. iv) Predictions iii) Uncertainties in wind speed and direction, fuel model assignment and typology, location and timing of ignitions, had a major impact on prediction accuracy. iv) Predictions were improved by ‘learning’ from past wildfires, significantly reducing the impact of data uncertainty on the accuracy of fire spread predictions Overall, the work contributed to advance the body of knowledge regarding individual wildfires and identified future research steps towards a reliable operational fire system capable of supporting more effective and safer fire management decisions with the aim of reducing the dramatic impacts of wildfiresN/
    corecore