189,286 research outputs found
Stochastic Optimal Power Flow Based on Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization
We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow
(OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions.
The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a
power network to balance operation cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of
device and network constraint violations. These decisions include scheduled
power output adjustments and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions
to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy
sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow
prescribed probability distributions, we assume the distributions are only
observable through a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein
metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution
and the real data-generating distribution, we formulate a distributionally
robust optimization OPF problem to search for power schedules and reserve
policies that are robust to sampling errors inherent in the dataset. A simple
numerical example illustrates inherent tradeoffs between operation cost and
risk of constraint violation, and we show how our proposed method offers a
data-driven framework to balance these objectives
Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to
understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of
explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people
how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual
explanations should satisfy two properties: feasibility of the counterfactual
actions given user context and constraints, and diversity among the
counterfactuals presented. To this end, we propose a framework for generating
and evaluating a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on
determinantal point processes. To evaluate the actionability of
counterfactuals, we provide metrics that enable comparison of
counterfactual-based methods to other local explanation methods. We further
address necessary tradeoffs and point to causal implications in optimizing for
counterfactuals. Our experiments on four real-world datasets show that our
framework can generate a set of counterfactuals that are diverse and well
approximate local decision boundaries, outperforming prior approaches to
generating diverse counterfactuals. We provide an implementation of the
framework at https://github.com/microsoft/DiCE.Comment: 13 page
Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix
The present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering, together with all other factors, the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options, not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle. The analysis has been performed by integrating the Life Cycle Assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost. The model has been applied for the case of Greece for the years 2012-2050 and has led to several interesting results. Firstly, most of the new generating capacity should be renewable (mostly biomass and wind), while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen. If externalities are considered, wind energy increases its share and hydro-power replaces significant amounts of biomass-generated energy. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis has been performed. One of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased. Summing-up, external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources, therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost-competitiveness for the energy sources examined
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Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville-Thermalito complex
This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville-Thermalito Complex (OTC) - a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation-storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California
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