83,848 research outputs found
Saddlepoint approximation for moment generating functions of truncated random variables
We consider the problem of approximating the moment generating function (MGF)
of a truncated random variable in terms of the MGF of the underlying (i.e.,
untruncated) random variable. The purpose of approximating the MGF is to enable
the application of saddlepoint approximations to certain distributions
determined by truncated random variables. Two important statistical
applications are the following: the approximation of certain multivariate
cumulative distribution functions; and the approximation of passage time
distributions in ion channel models which incorporate time interval omission.
We derive two types of representation for the MGF of a truncated random
variable. One of these representations is obtained by exponential tilting. The
second type of representation, which has two versions, is referred to as an
exponential convolution representation. Each representation motivates a
different approximation. It turns out that each of the three approximations is
extremely accurate in those cases ``to which it is suited.'' Moreover, there is
a simple rule of thumb for deciding which approximation to use in a given case,
and if this rule is followed, then our numerical and theoretical results
indicate that the resulting approximation will be extremely accurate.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000689 in the
Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
EMMIXcskew: an R Package for the Fitting of a Mixture of Canonical Fundamental Skew t-Distributions
This paper presents an R package EMMIXcskew for the fitting of the canonical
fundamental skew t-distribution (CFUST) and finite mixtures of this
distribution (FM-CFUST) via maximum likelihood (ML). The CFUST distribution
provides a flexible family of models to handle non-normal data, with parameters
for capturing skewness and heavy-tails in the data. It formally encompasses the
normal, t, and skew-normal distributions as special and/or limiting cases. A
few other versions of the skew t-distributions are also nested within the CFUST
distribution. In this paper, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is
described for computing the ML estimates of the parameters of the FM-CFUST
model, and different strategies for initializing the algorithm are discussed
and illustrated. The methodology is implemented in the EMMIXcskew package, and
examples are presented using two real datasets. The EMMIXcskew package contains
functions to fit the FM-CFUST model, including procedures for generating
different initial values. Additional features include random sample generation
and contour visualization in 2D and 3D
Multivariate Bernoulli distribution
In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model
to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is
discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical
properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly
the model can estimate not only the main effects and pairwise interactions
among the nodes but also is capable of modeling higher order interactions,
allowing for the existence of complex clique effects. We compare the
multivariate Bernoulli model with existing graphical inference models - the
Ising model and the multivariate Gaussian model, where only the pairwise
interactions are considered. On the other hand, the multivariate Bernoulli
distribution has an interesting property in that independence and
uncorrelatedness of the component random variables are equivalent. Both the
marginal and conditional distributions of a subset of variables in the
multivariate Bernoulli distribution still follow the multivariate Bernoulli
distribution. Furthermore, the multivariate Bernoulli logistic model is
developed under generalized linear model theory by utilizing the canonical link
function in order to include covariate information on the nodes, edges and
cliques. We also consider variable selection techniques such as LASSO in the
logistic model to impose sparsity structure on the graph. Finally, we discuss
extending the smoothing spline ANOVA approach to the multivariate Bernoulli
logistic model to enable estimation of non-linear effects of the predictor
variables.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJSP10 the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions
Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for
incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit
models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit
likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't
yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques
are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods).
We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit
model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial
expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible
family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response
coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly
convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the
coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by
positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma
distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of
the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate
heterogeneity distribution assumed.
Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity
calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for
summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are
hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of
our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative
Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20
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