The Value of Grid-Scale Variable Renewable Energy Generation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This report was produced for the Green Growth Diagnostics for Africa project, funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.Securing a sufficient supply of reliable and affordable electricity is a huge challenge for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Many countries in the region are experiencing rapid increases in the size of their populations, and even more rapid growth in their economies. As a result, the region experienced a 45 per cent increase in annual energy consumption between the years 2000-2014, with the growth in some countries much higher. This article surveys the most relevant research, policies and sources of data relevant to generation adequacy assessment in two example SSA countries: Kenya and Ghana. It also includes an exploratory analysis of the temporal relationships between the hydro resource, wind resource and power demand in Kenya, with an emphasis on assessing the impact of limited data availability

Multivariate Analysis in Management, Engineering and the Sciences

Recently statistical knowledge has become an important requirement and occupies a prominent position in the exercise of various professions. In the real world, the processes have a large volume of data and are naturally multivariate and as such, require a proper treatment. For these conditions it is difficult or practically impossible to use methods of univariate statistics. The wide application of multivariate techniques and the need to spread them more fully in the academic and the business justify the creation of this book. The objective is to demonstrate interdisciplinary applications to identify patterns, trends, association sand dependencies, in the areas of Management, Engineering and Sciences. The book is addressed to both practicing professionals and researchers in the field

Entropy and Exergy in Renewable Energy

Lovelock identified Newcomen’s atmospheric steam engine as the start of Anthropocene with these words: “…there have been two previous decisive events in the history of our planet. The first was … when photosynthetic bacteria first appeared [conversing sunlight to usable energy]. The second was in 1712 when Newcomen created an efficient machine that converted the sunlight locked in coal directly into work.” This book is about the necessity of energy transition toward renewables that convert sunlight diurnally, thus a sustainable Anthropocene. Such an energy transition is equally momentous as that of the kick start of the second Industrial Revolution in 1712. Such an energy transition requires “it takes a village” collective effort of mankind; the book is a small part of the collective endeavor

Using probability density functions to analyze the effect of external threats on the reliability of a South African power grid

Includes bibliographical references.The implications of reliability based decisions are a vital component of the control and management of power systems. Network planners strive to achieve an optimum level of investments and reliability. Network operators on the other hand aim at mitigating the costs associated with low levels of reliability. Effective decision making requires the management of uncertainties in the process applied. Thus, the modelling of reliability inputs, methodology applied in assessing network reliability and the interpretation of the reliability outputs should be carefully considered in reliability analyses. This thesis applies probability density functions, as opposed to deterministic averages, to model component failures. The probabilistic models are derived from historical failure data that is usually confined to finite ranges. Thus, the Beta distribution which has the unique characteristic of being able to be rescaled to a different finite range is selected. The thesis presents a new reliability evaluation technique that is based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The technique applies a time-dependent probabilistic modelling approach to network reliability parameters. The approach uses the Beta probability density functions to model stochastic network parameters while taking into account seasonal and time-of- day influences. While the modelling approach can be applied to different aspects such as intermittent power supply and system loading, it is applied in this thesis to model the failure and repair rates of network components. Unlike the conventional sequential Monte Carlo methods, the new technique does not require the derivation of an inverse translation function for the probability distribution applied. The conventional Monte Carlo technique simulates the up and down component states when building their chronological cycles. The new technique applied here focuses instead on simulating the down states of component chronological cycles. The simulation determines the number of down states, when they will occur and how long they will last before developing the chronological cycle. Tests performed on a published network show that focussing on the down states significantly improves the computation times of a sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the reliability results of the new sequential Monte Carlo technique are more dependent on the input failure models than on the number of simulation runs or the stopping criterion applied to a simulation and in this respect gives results different from present standard approaches. The thesis also applies the new approach on a real bulk power network. The bulk network is part of the South African power grid. Thus, the network threats considered and the corresponding failure data collected are typical of the real South African conditions. The thesis shows that probability density functions are superior to deterministic average values when modelling reliability parameters. Probability density functions reflect the variability in reliability parameters through their dispersion and skewness. The time-dependent probabilistic approach is applied in both planning and operational reliability analyses. The component failure models developed show that variability in network parameters is different for planning and operational reliability analyses. The thesis shows how the modelling approach is used to translate long-term failure models into operational (short-term) failure models. DigSilent and MATLAB software packages are used to perform network stability and reliability simulations in this thesis. The reliability simulation results of the time-dependent probabilistic approach show that the perception on a network's reliability is significantly impacted on when probability distribution functions that account for the full range of parameter values are applied as inputs. The results also show that the application of the probabilistic models to network components must be considered in the context of either network planning or operation. Furthermore, the risk-based approach applied to the interpretation of reliability indices significantly influences the perception on the network's reliability performance. The risk-based approach allows the uncertainty allowed in a network planning or operation decision to be quantified

Portuguese transmission grid incidents risk assessment

Documento confidencial. Não pode ser disponibilizado para consultaTese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

The CO2DB inventory and its application in a comparative assessment of electricity end use options

he greenhouse gas mitigation technology inventory developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis over the last five years, CO2DB, its software capabilities and the present coverage of technologies are discussed. For some clusters of the more than 1400 technologies represented in the database, the frequencies of investment estimates are analyzed. The special capability of CO2DB to evaluate full energy conversion chains, from primary extraction to final utilization of energy, is applied in a comparison of various options to reduce the CO2 emissions related to a specific application of electricity. This evaluation proves useful in the numerical comparison of the cost of reducing CO2 emissions by various technological options