Evolving investment models using genetic network programming and genetic relation algorithm

制度:新 ; 報告番号:甲3442号 ; 学位の種類:博士(工学) ; 授与年月日:15-Sep-11 ; 早大学位記番号:新576

Can Deep Learning Techniques Improve the Risk Adjusted Returns from Enhanced Indexing Investment Strategies

Deep learning techniques have been widely applied in the field of stock market prediction particularly with respect to the implementation of active trading strategies. However, the area of portfolio management and passive portfolio management in particular has been much less well served by research to date. This research project conducts an investigation into the science underlying the implementation of portfolio management strategies in practice focusing on enhanced indexing strategies. Enhanced indexing is a passive management approach which introduces an element of active management with the aim of achieving a level of active return through small adjustments to the portfolio weights. It then proceeds to investigate current applications of deep learning techniques in the field of financial market predictions and also in the specific area of portfolio management. A series of successively deeper neural network models were then developed and assessed in terms of their ability to accurately predict whether a sample of stocks would either outperform or underperform the selected benchmark index. The predictions generated by these models were then used to guide the adjustment of portfolio weightings to implement and forward test an enhanced indexing strategy on a hypothetical stock portfolio

Robust optimization of algorithmic trading systems

GAs (Genetic Algorithms) and GP (Genetic Programming) are investigated for finding robust Technical Trading Strategies (TTSs). TTSs evolved with standard GA/GP techniques tend to suffer from over-fitting as the solutions evolved are very fragile to small disturbances in the data. The main objective of this thesis is to explore optimization techniques for GA/GP which produce robust TTSs that have a similar performance during both optimization and evaluation, and are also able to operate in all market conditions and withstand severe market shocks. In this thesis, two novel techniques that increase the robustness of TTSs and reduce over-fitting are described and compared to standard GA/GP optimization techniques and the traditional investment strategy Buy & Hold. The first technique employed is a robust multi-market optimization methodology using a GA. Robustness is incorporated via the environmental variables of the problem, i.e. variablity in the dataset is introduced by conducting the search for the optimum parameters over several market indices, in the hope of exposing the GA to differing market conditions. This technique shows an increase in the robustness of the solutions produced, with results also showing an improvement in terms of performance when compared to those offered by conducting the optimization over a single market. The second technique is a random sampling method we use to discover robust TTSs using GP. Variability is introduced in the dataset by randomly sampling segments and evaluating each individual on different random samples. This technique has shown promising results, substantially beating Buy & Hold. Overall, this thesis concludes that Evolutionary Computation techniques such as GA and GP combined with robust optimization methods are very suitable for developing trading systems, and that the systems developed using these techniques can be used to provide significant economic profits in all market conditions

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Multiobjective genetic programming for financial portfolio management in dynamic environments

Multiobjective (MO) optimisation is a useful technique for evolving portfolio optimisation solutions that span a range from high-return/high-risk to low-return/low-risk. The resulting Pareto front would approximate the risk/reward Efficient Frontier [Mar52], and simplifies the choice of investment model for a given client’s attitude to risk. However, the financial market is continuously changing and it is essential to ensure that MO solutions are capturing true relationships between financial factors and not merely over fitting the training data. Research on evolutionary algorithms in dynamic environments has been directed towards adapting the algorithm to improve its suitability for retraining whenever a change is detected. Little research focused on how to assess and quantify the success of multiobjective solutions in unseen environments. The multiobjective nature of the problem adds a unique feature to be satisfied to judge robustness of solutions. That is, in addition to examining whether solutions remain optimal in the new environment, we need to ensure that the solutions’ relative positions previously identified on the Pareto front are not altered. This thesis investigates the performance of Multiobjective Genetic Programming (MOGP) in the dynamic real world problem of portfolio optimisation. The thesis provides new definitions and statistical metrics based on phenotypic cluster analysis to quantify robustness of both the solutions and the Pareto front. Focusing on the critical period between an environment change and when retraining occurs, four techniques to improve the robustness of solutions are examined. Namely, the use of a validation data set; diversity preservation; a novel variation on mating restriction; and a combination of both diversity enhancement and mating restriction. In addition, preliminary investigation of using the robustness metrics to quantify the severity of change for optimum tracking in a dynamic portfolio optimisation problem is carried out. Results show that the techniques used offer statistically significant improvement on the solutions’ robustness, although not on all the robustness criteria simultaneously. Combining the mating restriction with diversity enhancement provided the best robustness results while also greatly enhancing the quality of solutions

Study on stock trading and portfolio optimization using genetic network programming

制度:新 ; 報告番号:甲3002号 ; 学位の種類:博士(工学) ; 授与年月日: 2010/3/15 ; 早大学位記番号:新525