Project scheduling under undertainty – survey and research potentials.

The vast majority of the research efforts in project scheduling assume complete information about the scheduling problem to be solved and a static deterministic environment within which the pre-computed baseline schedule will be executed. However, in the real world, project activities are subject to considerable uncertainty, that is gradually resolved during project execution. In this survey we review the fundamental approaches for scheduling under uncertainty: reactive scheduling, stochastic project scheduling, stochastic GERT network scheduling, fuzzy project scheduling, robust (proactive) scheduling and sensitivity analysis. We discuss the potentials of these approaches for scheduling projects under uncertainty.Management; Project management; Robustness; Scheduling; Stability;

Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Numerical Integration and Dynamic Discretization in Heuristic Search Planning over Hybrid Domains

In this paper we look into the problem of planning over hybrid domains, where change can be both discrete and instantaneous, or continuous over time. In addition, it is required that each state on the trajectory induced by the execution of plans complies with a given set of global constraints. We approach the computation of plans for such domains as the problem of searching over a deterministic state model. In this model, some of the successor states are obtained by solving numerically the so-called initial value problem over a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) given by the current plan prefix. These equations hold over time intervals whose duration is determined dynamically, according to whether zero crossing events take place for a set of invariant conditions. The resulting planner, FS+, incorporates these features together with effective heuristic guidance. FS+ does not impose any of the syntactic restrictions on process effects often found on the existing literature on Hybrid Planning. A key concept of our approach is that a clear separation is struck between planning and simulation time steps. The former is the time allowed to observe the evolution of a given dynamical system before committing to a future course of action, whilst the later is part of the model of the environment. FS+ is shown to be a robust planner over a diverse set of hybrid domains, taken from the existing literature on hybrid planning and systems.Comment: 17 page

Dynamic scheduling in a multi-product manufacturing system

To remain competitive in global marketplace, manufacturing companies need to improve their operational practices. One of the methods to increase competitiveness in manufacturing is by implementing proper scheduling system. This is important to enable job orders to be completed on time, minimize waiting time and maximize utilization of equipment and machineries. The dynamics of real manufacturing system are very complex in nature. Schedules developed based on deterministic algorithms are unable to effectively deal with uncertainties in demand and capacity. Significant differences can be found between planned schedules and actual schedule implementation. This study attempted to develop a scheduling system that is able to react quickly and reliably for accommodating changes in product demand and manufacturing capacity. A case study, 6 by 6 job shop scheduling problem was adapted with uncertainty elements added to the data sets. A simulation model was designed and implemented using ARENA simulation package to generate various job shop scheduling scenarios. Their performances were evaluated using scheduling rules, namely, first-in-first-out (FIFO), earliest due date (EDD), and shortest processing time (SPT). An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed and trained using various scheduling scenarios generated by ARENA simulation. The experimental results suggest that the ANN scheduling model can provided moderately reliable prediction results for limited scenarios when predicting the number completed jobs, maximum flowtime, average machine utilization, and average length of queue. This study has provided better understanding on the effects of changes in demand and capacity on the job shop schedules. Areas for further study includes: (i) Fine tune the proposed ANN scheduling model (ii) Consider more variety of job shop environment (iii) Incorporate an expert system for interpretation of results. The theoretical framework proposed in this study can be used as a basis for further investigation

Temporal Data Modeling and Reasoning for Information Systems

Temporal knowledge representation and reasoning is a major research field in Artificial Intelligence, in Database Systems, and in Web and Semantic Web research. The ability to model and process time and calendar data is essential for many applications like appointment scheduling, planning, Web services, temporal and active database systems, adaptive Web applications, and mobile computing applications. This article aims at three complementary goals. First, to provide with a general background in temporal data modeling and reasoning approaches. Second, to serve as an orientation guide for further specific reading. Third, to point to new application fields and research perspectives on temporal knowledge representation and reasoning in the Web and Semantic Web