Modelling cyber-security experts' decision making processes using aggregation operators

An important role carried out by cyber-security experts is the assessment of proposed computer systems, during their design stage. This task is fraught with difficulties and uncertainty, making the knowledge provided by human experts essential for successful assessment. Today, the increasing number of progressively complex systems has led to an urgent need to produce tools that support the expert-led process of system-security assessment. In this research, we use Weighted Averages (WAs) and Ordered Weighted Averages (OWAs) with Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to create aggregation operators that model parts of the assessment process. We show how individual overall ratings for security components can be produced from ratings of their characteristics, and how these individual overall ratings can be aggregated to produce overall rankings of potential attacks on a system. As well as the identification of salient attacks and weak points in a prospective system, the proposed method also highlights which factors and security components contribute most to a component's difficulty and attack ranking respectively. A real world scenario is used in which experts were asked to rank a set of technical attacks, and to answer a series of questions about the security components that are the subject of the attacks. The work shows how finding good aggregation operators, and identifying important components and factors of a cyber-security problem can be automated. The resulting operators have the potential for use as decision aids for systems designers and cyber-security experts, increasing the amount of assessment that can be achieved with the limited resources available

Constructing a comprehensive disaster resilience index: The case of Italy

Measuring disaster resilience is a key component of successful disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Quantitative, indicator-based assessments are typically applied to evaluate resilience by combining various indicators of performance into a single composite index. Building upon extensive research on social vulnerability and coping/adaptive capacity, we first develop an original, comprehensive disaster resilience index (CDRI) at municipal level across Italy, to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. As next, we perform extensive sensitivity and robustness analysis to assess how various methodological choices, especially the normalisation and aggregation methods applied, influence the ensuing rankings. The results show patterns of social vulnerability and resilience with sizeable variability across the northern and southern regions. We propose several statistical methods to allow decision makers to explore the territorial, social and economic disparities, and choose aggregation methods best suitable for the various policy purposes. These methods are based on linear and nonliner normalization approaches combining the OWA and LSP aggregators. Robust resilience rankings are determined by relative dominance across multiple methods. The dominance measures can be used as a decision-making benchmark for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and plans

INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL SYSTEM FOR OBTAINING AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES FROM THE POSITION OF CONSUMERS

The aim of the research study is the description of the information analytical system developed by the authors for the formation of an integral linguistic assessment of the quality of educational services from the perspective of three main groups of consumers: employers, students and young professionals. The computation of the integral linguistic quality assessment is based on specially structured information obtained in the course of a voluntary online survey of consumers on specialized quality criteria for groups. A site has been developed for the online survey. The algorithmic support of the information-analytical system is based on the methods SERVQUAL, SWOT-analysis and fuzzy linguistic information processing technologies. The tools of the information analytical system allow us to obtain: linguistic assessments of the quality of services from the perspective of each group of consumers, an integral quality assessment for all consumers and automatically build a SWOT analysis matrix to develop a strategy to improve the quality of the analysed services. In accordance with modern standards of quality management, the approach to quality assessment laid down in the methodology for generating results uses the assumption that the consumer assesses the quality of services based on a comparison of his/her expectations and perceptions of the service during its receipt.

Biased experts and similarity based weights in preferences aggregation

In a group decision making setting, we consider the potential impact an expert can have on the overall ranking by providing a biased assessment of the alternatives that differs substantially from the majority opinion. In the framework of similarity based averaging functions, we show that some alternative approaches to weighting the experts\u27 inputs during the aggregation process can minimize the influence the biased expert is able to exert

Architecture value mapping: using fuzzy cognitive maps as a reasoning mechanism for multi-criteria conceptual design evaluation

The conceptual design phase is the most critical phase in the systems engineering life cycle. The design concept chosen during this phase determines the structure and behavior of the system, and consequently, its ability to fulfill its intended function. A good conceptual design is the first step in the development of a successful artifact. However, decision-making during conceptual design is inherently challenging and often unreliable. The conceptual design phase is marked by an ambiguous and imprecise set of requirements, and ill-defined system boundaries. A lack of usable data for design evaluation makes the problem worse. In order to assess a system accurately, it is necessary to capture the relationships between its physical attributes and the stakeholders\u27 value objectives. This research presents a novel conceptual architecture evaluation approach that utilizes attribute-value networks, designated as \u27Architecture Value Maps\u27, to replicate the decision makers\u27 cogitative processes. Ambiguity in the system\u27s overall objectives is reduced hierarchically to reveal a network of criteria that range from the abstract value measures to the design-specific performance measures. A symbolic representation scheme, the 2-Tuple Linguistic Representation is used to integrate different types of information into a common computational format, and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are utilized as the reasoning engine to quantitatively evaluate potential design concepts. A Linguistic Ordered Weighted Average aggregation operator is used to rank the final alternatives based on the decision makers\u27 risk preferences. The proposed methodology provides systems architects with the capability to exploit the interrelationships between a system\u27s design attributes and the value that stakeholders associate with these attributes, in order to design robust, flexible, and affordable systems --Abstract, page iii

Integrating experts’ weights generated dynamically into the consensus reaching process and its applications in managing non-cooperative behaviors

This work was supported in part by the NSF of China under grants 71171160 and 71571124, in part by the SSEM Key Research Center at Sichuan Province under grant xq15b01, in part by the FEDER funds under grant TIN2013-40658-P, and in part by Andalusian Excellence Project under grant TIC-5991.The consensus reaching process (CRP) is a dynamic and iterative process for improving the consensus level among experts in group decision making. A large number of non-cooperative behaviors exist in the CRP. For example, some experts will express their opinions dishonestly or refuse to change their opinions to further their own interests. In this study, we propose a novel consensus framework for managing non-cooperative behaviors. In the proposed framework, a self-management mechanism to generate experts' weights dynamically is presented and then integrated into the CRP. This self-management mechanism is based on multi-attribute mutual evaluation matrices (MMEMs). During the CRP, the experts can provide and update their MMEMs regarding the experts' performances (e.g., professional skill, cooperation, and fairness), and the experts' weights are dynamically derived from the MMEMs. Detailed simulation experiments and comparison analysis are presented to justify the validity of the proposed consensus framework in managing the non-cooperative behaviors.National Natural Science Foundation of China 71171160 71571124SSEM Key Research Center at Sichuan Province xq15b01European Union (EU) TIN2013-40658-PAndalusian Excellence Project TIC-599

Positional voting rules generated by aggregation functions and the role of duplication

Producción CientíficaIn this paper, we consider a typical voting situation where a group of agents show their preferences over a set of alternatives. Under our approach, such preferences are codied into individual positional values which can be aggregated in several ways through particular functions, yielding positional voting rules and providing a social result in each case. We show that scoring rules belong to such class of positional voting rules. But if we focus our interest on OWA operators as aggregation functions, other well-known voting systems naturally appear. In particular, we determine those ones verifying duplication (i.e., clone irrelevance) and present a proposal of an overall social result provided by them.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (ECO2012-32178)Junta de Castilla y León (programa de apoyo a proyectos de investigación – Ref. VA066U13