An investigation into hazard-centric analysis of complex autonomous systems

This thesis proposes a hypothesis that a conventional, and essentially manual, HAZOP process can be improved with information obtained with model-based dynamic simulation, using a Monte Carlo approach, to update a Bayesian Belief model representing the expected relations between cause and effects – and thereby produce an enhanced HAZOP. The work considers how the expertise of a hazard and operability study team might be augmented with access to behavioural models, simulations and belief inference models. This incorporates models of dynamically complex system behaviour, considering where these might contribute to the expertise of a hazard and operability study team, and how these might bolster trust in the portrayal of system behaviour. With a questionnaire containing behavioural outputs from a representative systems model, responses were collected from a group with relevant domain expertise. From this it is argued that the quality of analysis is dependent upon the experience and expertise of the participants but this might be artificially augmented using probabilistic data derived from a system dynamics model. Consequently, Monte Carlo simulations of an improved exemplar system dynamics model are used to condition a behavioural inference model and also to generate measures of emergence associated with the deviation parameter used in the study. A Bayesian approach towards probability is adopted where particular events and combinations of circumstances are effectively unique or hypothetical, and perhaps irreproducible in practice. Therefore, it is shown that a Bayesian model, representing beliefs expressed in a hazard and operability study, conditioned by the likely occurrence of flaw events causing specific deviant behaviour from evidence observed in the system dynamical behaviour, may combine intuitive estimates based upon experience and expertise, with quantitative statistical information representing plausible evidence of safety constraint violation. A further behavioural measure identifies potential emergent behaviour by way of a Lyapunov Exponent. Together these improvements enhance the awareness of potential hazard cases

Understanding and Mitigating Multi-sided Exposure Bias in Recommender Systems

Fairness is a critical system-level objective in recommender systems that has been the subject of extensive recent research. It is especially important in multi-sided recommendation platforms where it may be crucial to optimize utilities not just for the end user, but also for other actors such as item sellers or producers who desire a fair representation of their items. Existing solutions do not properly address various aspects of multi-sided fairness in recommendations as they may either solely have one-sided view (i.e. improving the fairness only for one side), or do not appropriately measure the fairness for each actor involved in the system. In this thesis, I aim at first investigating the impact of unfair recommendations on the system and how these unfair recommendations can negatively affect major actors in the system. Then, I seek to propose solutions to tackle the unfairness of recommendations. I propose a rating transformation technique that works as a pre-processing step before building the recommendation model to alleviate the inherent popularity bias in the input data and consequently to mitigate the exposure unfairness for items and suppliers in the recommendation lists. Also, as another solution, I propose a general graph-based solution that works as a post-processing approach after recommendation generation for mitigating the multi-sided exposure bias in the recommendation results. For evaluation, I introduce several metrics for measuring the exposure fairness for items and suppliers, and show that these metrics better capture the fairness properties in the recommendation results. I perform extensive experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed solutions. The experiments on different publicly-available datasets and comparison with various baselines confirm the superiority of the proposed solutions in improving the exposure fairness for items and suppliers.Comment: Doctoral thesi

Building Embodied Conversational Agents:Observations on human nonverbal behaviour as a resource for the development of artificial characters

"Wow this is so cool!" This is what I most probably yelled, back in the 90s, when my first computer program on our MSX computer turned out to do exactly what I wanted it to do. The program contained the following instruction: COLOR 10(1.1) After hitting enter, it would change the screen color from light blue to dark yellow. A few years after that experience, Microsoft Windows was introduced. Windows came with an intuitive graphical user interface that was designed to allow all people, so also those who would not consider themselves to be experienced computer addicts, to interact with the computer. This was a major step forward in human-computer interaction, as from that point forward no complex programming skills were required anymore to perform such actions as adapting the screen color. Changing the background was just a matter of pointing the mouse to the desired color on a color palette. "Wow this is so cool!". This is what I shouted, again, 20 years later. This time my new smartphone successfully skipped to the next song on Spotify because I literally told my smartphone, with my voice, to do so. Being able to operate your smartphone with natural language through voice-control can be extremely handy, for instance when listening to music while showering. Again, the option to handle a computer with voice instructions turned out to be a significant optimization in human-computer interaction. From now on, computers could be instructed without the use of a screen, mouse or keyboard, and instead could operate successfully simply by telling the machine what to do. In other words, I have personally witnessed how, within only a few decades, the way people interact with computers has changed drastically, starting as a rather technical and abstract enterprise to becoming something that was both natural and intuitive, and did not require any advanced computer background. Accordingly, while computers used to be machines that could only be operated by technically-oriented individuals, they had gradually changed into devices that are part of many people’s household, just as much as a television, a vacuum cleaner or a microwave oven. The introduction of voice control is a significant feature of the newer generation of interfaces in the sense that these have become more "antropomorphic" and try to mimic the way people interact in daily life, where indeed the voice is a universally used device that humans exploit in their exchanges with others. The question then arises whether it would be possible to go even one step further, where people, like in science-fiction movies, interact with avatars or humanoid robots, whereby users can have a proper conversation with a computer-simulated human that is indistinguishable from a real human. An interaction with a human-like representation of a computer that behaves, talks and reacts like a real person would imply that the computer is able to not only produce and understand messages transmitted auditorily through the voice, but also could rely on the perception and generation of different forms of body language, such as facial expressions, gestures or body posture. At the time of writing, developments of this next step in human-computer interaction are in full swing, but the type of such interactions is still rather constrained when compared to the way humans have their exchanges with other humans. It is interesting to reflect on how such future humanmachine interactions may look like. When we consider other products that have been created in history, it sometimes is striking to see that some of these have been inspired by things that can be observed in our environment, yet at the same do not have to be exact copies of those phenomena. For instance, an airplane has wings just as birds, yet the wings of an airplane do not make those typical movements a bird would produce to fly. Moreover, an airplane has wheels, whereas a bird has legs. At the same time, an airplane has made it possible for a humans to cover long distances in a fast and smooth manner in a way that was unthinkable before it was invented. The example of the airplane shows how new technologies can have "unnatural" properties, but can nonetheless be very beneficial and impactful for human beings. This dissertation centers on this practical question of how virtual humans can be programmed to act more human-like. The four studies presented in this dissertation all have the equivalent underlying question of how parts of human behavior can be captured, such that computers can use it to become more human-like. Each study differs in method, perspective and specific questions, but they are all aimed to gain insights and directions that would help further push the computer developments of human-like behavior and investigate (the simulation of) human conversational behavior. The rest of this introductory chapter gives a general overview of virtual humans (also known as embodied conversational agents), their potential uses and the engineering challenges, followed by an overview of the four studies

Building Embodied Conversational Agents:Observations on human nonverbal behaviour as a resource for the development of artificial characters

"Wow this is so cool!" This is what I most probably yelled, back in the 90s, when my first computer program on our MSX computer turned out to do exactly what I wanted it to do. The program contained the following instruction: COLOR 10(1.1) After hitting enter, it would change the screen color from light blue to dark yellow. A few years after that experience, Microsoft Windows was introduced. Windows came with an intuitive graphical user interface that was designed to allow all people, so also those who would not consider themselves to be experienced computer addicts, to interact with the computer. This was a major step forward in human-computer interaction, as from that point forward no complex programming skills were required anymore to perform such actions as adapting the screen color. Changing the background was just a matter of pointing the mouse to the desired color on a color palette. "Wow this is so cool!". This is what I shouted, again, 20 years later. This time my new smartphone successfully skipped to the next song on Spotify because I literally told my smartphone, with my voice, to do so. Being able to operate your smartphone with natural language through voice-control can be extremely handy, for instance when listening to music while showering. Again, the option to handle a computer with voice instructions turned out to be a significant optimization in human-computer interaction. From now on, computers could be instructed without the use of a screen, mouse or keyboard, and instead could operate successfully simply by telling the machine what to do. In other words, I have personally witnessed how, within only a few decades, the way people interact with computers has changed drastically, starting as a rather technical and abstract enterprise to becoming something that was both natural and intuitive, and did not require any advanced computer background. Accordingly, while computers used to be machines that could only be operated by technically-oriented individuals, they had gradually changed into devices that are part of many people’s household, just as much as a television, a vacuum cleaner or a microwave oven. The introduction of voice control is a significant feature of the newer generation of interfaces in the sense that these have become more "antropomorphic" and try to mimic the way people interact in daily life, where indeed the voice is a universally used device that humans exploit in their exchanges with others. The question then arises whether it would be possible to go even one step further, where people, like in science-fiction movies, interact with avatars or humanoid robots, whereby users can have a proper conversation with a computer-simulated human that is indistinguishable from a real human. An interaction with a human-like representation of a computer that behaves, talks and reacts like a real person would imply that the computer is able to not only produce and understand messages transmitted auditorily through the voice, but also could rely on the perception and generation of different forms of body language, such as facial expressions, gestures or body posture. At the time of writing, developments of this next step in human-computer interaction are in full swing, but the type of such interactions is still rather constrained when compared to the way humans have their exchanges with other humans. It is interesting to reflect on how such future humanmachine interactions may look like. When we consider other products that have been created in history, it sometimes is striking to see that some of these have been inspired by things that can be observed in our environment, yet at the same do not have to be exact copies of those phenomena. For instance, an airplane has wings just as birds, yet the wings of an airplane do not make those typical movements a bird would produce to fly. Moreover, an airplane has wheels, whereas a bird has legs. At the same time, an airplane has made it possible for a humans to cover long distances in a fast and smooth manner in a way that was unthinkable before it was invented. The example of the airplane shows how new technologies can have "unnatural" properties, but can nonetheless be very beneficial and impactful for human beings. This dissertation centers on this practical question of how virtual humans can be programmed to act more human-like. The four studies presented in this dissertation all have the equivalent underlying question of how parts of human behavior can be captured, such that computers can use it to become more human-like. Each study differs in method, perspective and specific questions, but they are all aimed to gain insights and directions that would help further push the computer developments of human-like behavior and investigate (the simulation of) human conversational behavior. The rest of this introductory chapter gives a general overview of virtual humans (also known as embodied conversational agents), their potential uses and the engineering challenges, followed by an overview of the four studies