128 research outputs found

    A fuzzy multiple attribute utility model for intelligent building assessment

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    Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is an evaluation scheme which is very popular by decision makers for evaluating their judgments. According to MAUT, the overall evaluation U(x) of an object x is defined as a weighted addition of its evaluation with respect to its relevant value dimensions. The recent years have witnessed a huge concentration and interest in intelligent buildings’ performance that is increasingly evidenced in building design and construction. Intelligent buildings (IBs) are also under assessment according to their IB related characteristics and actual circumstances. For this aim, in this paper a fuzzy multiple attribute utility model for intelligent building assessment is proposed and three alternative intelligent buildings for a business center in Istanbul are evaluated

    A Conjoint Analysis of Wetland-Based Recreation: A Case Study of Louisiana Waterfowl Hunting.

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    Conjoint analysis is a recent evolution in mathematical psychology that has been employed extensively in the marketing environment. The technique is concerned with measuring the joint effect of two or more independent variables on the ordering of a dependent variable. Conjoint analysis relates an individual\u27s preferences to a set of prespecified attributes. The objective of conjoint analysis is to decomposed a set of responses to factorially designed stimuli in which the utility of each stimuli attribute can be inferred from the respondents\u27 evaluations of the stimuli. In addition, conjoint analysis and its economic foundations are developed in the context of conventional related market and non-market valuation approaches. Given the multiattribute nature of wetland based activities such as waterfowl hunting, conjoint analysis becomes an attractive approach in estimating the benefits and values derived from wetland based activities. An empirical and economic analysis is presented in which waterfowl hunters\u27 willingness-to-pay for various hunting trip attributes is derived from a rank-ordered logit specification of the indirect utility function. The hunting trip vignettes are developed according to seven different attributes with each attribute varying across three levels using a fractional factorial experiment. The data for the analysis were derived from questionnaires mailed to 7,500 randomly selected individuals who purchased 1990 Louisiana duck stamps. The statistical estimation technique employed in this research was rank-ordered logit via weighted least squares. Weighted least squares was chosen due to the presence of heteroskedasticity and uncertainty regarding the properties of the error term which masks the efficiency of the ordinary least squares regression. A Box-Cox transformation was also employed to test for specification of the functional form. The results indicated that the length of the hunting season, the daily duck bag limit, and the rate of congestion were three significant factors influencing waterfowl hunters\u27 trip rating preferences. In addition, conjoint analysis appears to be a viable technique for analysis of resource based multiattribute activities

    Conflicting Objectives in Decisions

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    This book deals with quantitative approaches in making decisions when conflicting objectives are present. This problem is central to many applications of decision analysis, policy analysis, operational research, etc. in a wide range of fields, for example, business, economics, engineering, psychology, and planning. The book surveys different approaches to the same problem area and each approach is discussed in considerable detail so that the coverage of the book is both broad and deep. The problem of conflicting objectives is of paramount importance, both in planned and market economies, and this book represents a cross-cultural mixture of approaches from many countries to the same class of problem

    Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

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    This research investigated value and utility functions in multiobjective decision analysis to examine the relationship between them in a military decision making context. The impact of these differences was examined to improve implementation efficiency. The robustness of the decision model was examined with respect to the preference functions to reduce the time burden imposed on the decision maker. Data for decision making in a military context supports the distinction between value and utility functions. Relationships between value and utility functions and risk attitudes were found to be complex. Elicitation error was significantly smaller than the difference between value and utility functions. Risk attitudes were generally neither constant across the domain of the evaluation measure nor consistent between evaluation measures. An improved measure of differences between preference functions, the weighted root means square, is introduced and a goodness of fit criterion established. An improved measure of risk attitudes employing utility functions is developed. Response Surface Methodology was applied to improve the efficiency of decision analysis utility model applications through establishing the robustness of decision models to the preference functions. An algorithm was developed and employs this information to provide a hybrid value-utility model that offers increased elicitation efficiency

    Risk based multi-objective security control and congestion management

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    Deterministic security criterion has served power system operation, congestion management quite well in last decades. It is simple to be implemented in a security control model, for example, security constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF). However, since event likelihood and violation information are not addressed, it does not provide quantitative security understanding, and so results in system inadequate awareness. Therefore, even if computation capability and information techniques have been greatly improved and widely applied in the operation support tool, operators are still not able to get rid of the security threat, especially in the market competitive environment.;Probability approach has shown its strong ability for planning purpose, and recently gets attention in operation area. Since power system security assessment needs to analyze consequence of all credible events, risk defined as multiplication of event probability and severity is well suited to give an indication to quantify the system security level, and congestion level as well. Since risk addresses extra information, its application for making BETTER online operation decision becomes an attractive research topic.;This dissertation focus on system online risk calculation, risk based multi-objective optimization model development, risk based security control design, and risk based congestion management. A regression model is proposed to predict contingency probability using weather and geography information for online risk calculation. Risk based multi-objective optimization (RBMO) model is presented, considering conflict objectives: risks and cost. Two types of method, classical methods and evolutionary algorithms, are implemented to solve RBMO problem, respectively. A risk based decision making architecture for security control is designed based on the Pareto-optimal solution understanding, visualization tool and high level information analysis. Risk based congestion management provides a market lever to uniformly expand a security VOLUME , where greater volume means more risk. Meanwhile, risk based LMP signal contracts ALL dimensions of this VOLUME in proper weights (state probabilities) at a time.;Two test systems, 6-bus and IEEE RTS 96, are used to test developed algorithms. The simulation results show that incorporating risk into security control and congestion management will evolve our understanding of security level, improve control and market efficiency, and support operator to maneuver system in an effective fashion

    Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models

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    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions and assess their merits. In sum, two main methodological contributions are presented. The first contribution consists of proposing a mathematical programming based approach, commonly referred to as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), as a multidimensional framework for relative performance evaluation of competing forecasting models or methods. As opposed to other performance measurement and evaluation frameworks, DEA allows one to identify the weaknesses of each model, as compared to the best one(s), and suggests ways to improve their overall performance. DEA is a generic framework and as such its implementation for a specific relative performance evaluation exercise requires a number of decisions to be made such as the choice of the units to be assessed, the choice of the relevant inputs and outputs to be used, and the choice of the appropriate models. In order to present and discuss how one might adapt this framework to measure and evaluate the relative performance of competing forecasting models, we first survey and classify the literature on performance criteria and their measures – including statistical tests – commonly used in evaluating and selecting forecasting models or methods. In sum, our classification will serve as a basis for the operationalisation of DEA. Finally, we test DEA performance in evaluating and selecting models to forecast crude oil prices. The second contribution consists of proposing a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based approach as a multidimensional framework for relative performance evaluation of the competing forecasting models or methods. In order to present and discuss how one might adapt such framework, we first revisit MCDA methodology, propose a revised methodological framework that consists of a sequential decision making process with feedback adjustment mechanisms, and provide guidelines as to how to operationalise it. Finally, we adapt such a methodological framework to address the problem of performance evaluation of competing forecasting models. For illustration purposes, we have chosen the forecasting of crude oil prices as an application area

    Analysis of Layered Social Networks

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    Prevention of near-term terrorist attacks requires an understanding of current terrorist organizations to include their composition, the actors involved, and how they operate to achieve their objectives. To aid this understanding, operations research, sociological, and behavioral theory relevant to the study of social networks are applied, thereby providing theoretical foundations for new methodologies to analyze non-cooperative organizations, defined as those trying to hide their structure or are unwilling to provide information regarding their operations. Techniques applying information regarding multiple dimensions of interpersonal relationships, inferring from them the strengths of interpersonal ties, are explored. A layered network construct is offered that provides new analytic opportunities and insights generally unaccounted for in traditional social network analyses. These provide decision makers improved courses of action designed to impute influence upon an adversarial network, thereby achieving a desired influence, perception, or outcome to one or more actors within the target network. This knowledge may also be used to identify key individuals, relationships, and organizational practices. Subsequently, such analysis may lead to the identification of exploitable weaknesses to either eliminate the network as a whole, cause it to become operationally ineffective, or influence it to directly or indirectly support National Security Strategy

    Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

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    In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency

    The Measurement and Analysis of Housing Preference and Choice

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    What are the current trends in housing? Is my planned project commercially viable? What should be my marketing and advertisement strategies? These are just some of the questions real estate agents, landlords and developers ask researchers to answer. But to find the answers, researchers are faced with a wide variety of methods that measure housing preferences and choices. To select and value a valid research method, one needs a well-structured overview of the methods that are used in housing preference and housing choice research. This comprehensive introduction to this field offers just such an overview. It discusses and compares numerous methods, detailing the potential limitation of each one, and it reaches beyond methodology, illustrating how thoughtful consideration of methods and techniques in research can help researchers and other professionals to deliver products and services that are more in line with residents’ needs
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