Generalized Network Psychometrics: Combining Network and Latent Variable Models

We introduce the network model as a formal psychometric model, conceptualizing the covariance between psychometric indicators as resulting from pairwise interactions between observable variables in a network structure. This contrasts with standard psychometric models, in which the covariance between test items arises from the influence of one or more common latent variables. Here, we present two generalizations of the network model that encompass latent variable structures, establishing network modeling as parts of the more general framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). In the first generalization, we model the covariance structure of latent variables as a network. We term this framework Latent Network Modeling (LNM) and show that, with LNM, a unique structure of conditional independence relationships between latent variables can be obtained in an explorative manner. In the second generalization, the residual variance-covariance structure of indicators is modeled as a network. We term this generalization Residual Network Modeling (RNM) and show that, within this framework, identifiable models can be obtained in which local independence is structurally violated. These generalizations allow for a general modeling framework that can be used to fit, and compare, SEM models, network models, and the RNM and LNM generalizations. This methodology has been implemented in the free-to-use software package lvnet, which contains confirmatory model testing as well as two exploratory search algorithms: stepwise search algorithms for low-dimensional datasets and penalized maximum likelihood estimation for larger datasets. We show in simulation studies that these search algorithms performs adequately in identifying the structure of the relevant residual or latent networks. We further demonstrate the utility of these generalizations in an empirical example on a personality inventory dataset.Comment: Published in Psychometrik

Pairwise MRF Calibration by Perturbation of the Bethe Reference Point

We investigate different ways of generating approximate solutions to the pairwise Markov random field (MRF) selection problem. We focus mainly on the inverse Ising problem, but discuss also the somewhat related inverse Gaussian problem because both types of MRF are suitable for inference tasks with the belief propagation algorithm (BP) under certain conditions. Our approach consists in to take a Bethe mean-field solution obtained with a maximum spanning tree (MST) of pairwise mutual information, referred to as the \emph{Bethe reference point}, for further perturbation procedures. We consider three different ways following this idea: in the first one, we select and calibrate iteratively the optimal links to be added starting from the Bethe reference point; the second one is based on the observation that the natural gradient can be computed analytically at the Bethe point; in the third one, assuming no local field and using low temperature expansion we develop a dual loop joint model based on a well chosen fundamental cycle basis. We indeed identify a subclass of planar models, which we refer to as \emph{Bethe-dual graph models}, having possibly many loops, but characterized by a singly connected dual factor graph, for which the partition function and the linear response can be computed exactly in respectively O(N) and $O(N^2)$ operations, thanks to a dual weight propagation (DWP) message passing procedure that we set up. When restricted to this subclass of models, the inverse Ising problem being convex, becomes tractable at any temperature. Experimental tests on various datasets with refined $L_0$ or $L_1$ regularization procedures indicate that these approaches may be competitive and useful alternatives to existing ones.Comment: 54 pages, 8 figure. section 5 and refs added in V

Cycle-based Cluster Variational Method for Direct and Inverse Inference

We elaborate on the idea that loop corrections to belief propagation could be dealt with in a systematic way on pairwise Markov random fields, by using the elements of a cycle basis to define region in a generalized belief propagation setting. The region graph is specified in such a way as to avoid dual loops as much as possible, by discarding redundant Lagrange multipliers, in order to facilitate the convergence, while avoiding instabilities associated to minimal factor graph construction. We end up with a two-level algorithm, where a belief propagation algorithm is run alternatively at the level of each cycle and at the inter-region level. The inverse problem of finding the couplings of a Markov random field from empirical covariances can be addressed region wise. It turns out that this can be done efficiently in particular in the Ising context, where fixed point equations can be derived along with a one-parameter log likelihood function to minimize. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of these considerations both for the direct and inverse MRF inference.Comment: 47 pages, 16 figure

Lower Bounds for Two-Sample Structural Change Detection in Ising and Gaussian Models

The change detection problem is to determine if the Markov network structures of two Markov random fields differ from one another given two sets of samples drawn from the respective underlying distributions. We study the trade-off between the sample sizes and the reliability of change detection, measured as a minimax risk, for the important cases of the Ising models and the Gaussian Markov random fields restricted to the models which have network structures with $p$ nodes and degree at most $d$, and obtain information-theoretic lower bounds for reliable change detection over these models. We show that for the Ising model, $\Omega\left(\frac{d^2}{(\log d)^2}\log p\right)$ samples are required from each dataset to detect even the sparsest possible changes, and that for the Gaussian, $\Omega\left( \gamma^{-2} \log(p)\right)$ samples are required from each dataset to detect change, where $\gamma$ is the smallest ratio of off-diagonal to diagonal terms in the precision matrices of the distributions. These bounds are compared to the corresponding results in structure learning, and closely match them under mild conditions on the model parameters. Thus, our change detection bounds inherit partial tightness from the structure learning schemes in previous literature, demonstrating that in certain parameter regimes, the naive structure learning based approach to change detection is minimax optimal up to constant factors.Comment: Presented at the 55th Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, Oct. 201

Network Psychometrics

This chapter provides a general introduction of network modeling in psychometrics. The chapter starts with an introduction to the statistical model formulation of pairwise Markov random fields (PMRF), followed by an introduction of the PMRF suitable for binary data: the Ising model. The Ising model is a model used in ferromagnetism to explain phase transitions in a field of particles. Following the description of the Ising model in statistical physics, the chapter continues to show that the Ising model is closely related to models used in psychometrics. The Ising model can be shown to be equivalent to certain kinds of logistic regression models, loglinear models and multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT) models. The equivalence between the Ising model and the MIRT model puts standard psychometrics in a new light and leads to a strikingly different interpretation of well-known latent variable models. The chapter gives an overview of methods that can be used to estimate the Ising model, and concludes with a discussion on the interpretation of latent variables given the equivalence between the Ising model and MIRT.Comment: In Irwing, P., Hughes, D., and Booth, T. (2018). The Wiley Handbook of Psychometric Testing, 2 Volume Set: A Multidisciplinary Reference on Survey, Scale and Test Development. New York: Wile

Critical behavior and synchronization of discrete stochastic phase coupled oscillators

Synchronization of stochastic phase-coupled oscillators is known to occur but difficult to characterize because sufficiently complete analytic work is not yet within our reach, and thorough numerical description usually defies all resources. We present a discrete model that is sufficiently simple to be characterized in meaningful detail. In the mean field limit, the model exhibits a supercritical Hopf bifurcation and global oscillatory behavior as coupling crosses a critical value. When coupling between units is strictly local, the model undergoes a continuous phase transition which we characterize numerically using finite-size scaling analysis. In particular, we explicitly rule out multistability and show that that the onset of global synchrony is marked by signatures of the XY universality class. Our numerical results cover dimensions d=2, 3, 4, and 5 and lead to the appropriate XY classical exponents \beta and \nu, a lower critical dimension d_{lc} = 2, and an upper critical dimension d_{uc}=4