Dynamic Programming and Bayesian Inference

Dynamic programming and Bayesian inference have been both intensively and extensively developed during recent years. Because of these developments, interest in dynamic programming and Bayesian inference and their applications has greatly increased at all mathematical levels. The purpose of this book is to provide some applications of Bayesian optimization and dynamic programming

D11.2 Consolidated results on the performance limits of wireless communications

Deliverable D11.2 del projecte europeu NEWCOM#The report presents the Intermediate Results of N# JRAs on Performance Limits of Wireless Communications and highlights the fundamental issues that have been investigated by the WP1.1. The report illustrates the Joint Research Activities (JRAs) already identified during the first year of the project which are currently ongoing. For each activity there is a description, an illustration of the adherence and relevance with the identified fundamental open issues, a short presentation of the preliminary results, and a roadmap for the joint research work in the next year. Appendices for each JRA give technical details on the scientific activity in each JRA.Peer ReviewedPreprin

Graphical Models and Symmetries : Loopy Belief Propagation Approaches

Whenever a person or an automated system has to reason in uncertain domains, probability theory is necessary. Probabilistic graphical models allow us to build statistical models that capture complex dependencies between random variables. Inference in these models, however, can easily become intractable. Typical ways to address this scaling issue are inference by approximate message-passing, stochastic gradients, and MapReduce, among others. Exploiting the symmetries of graphical models, however, has not yet been considered for scaling statistical machine learning applications. One instance of graphical models that are inherently symmetric are statistical relational models. These have recently gained attraction within the machine learning and AI communities and combine probability theory with first-order logic, thereby allowing for an efficient representation of structured relational domains. The provided formalisms to compactly represent complex real-world domains enable us to effectively describe large problem instances. Inference within and training of graphical models, however, have not been able to keep pace with the increased representational power. This thesis tackles two major aspects of graphical models and shows that both inference and training can indeed benefit from exploiting symmetries. It first deals with efficient inference exploiting symmetries in graphical models for various query types. We introduce lifted loopy belief propagation (lifted LBP), the first lifted parallel inference approach for relational as well as propositional graphical models. Lifted LBP can effectively speed up marginal inference, but cannot straightforwardly be applied to other types of queries. Thus we also demonstrate efficient lifted algorithms for MAP inference and higher order marginals, as well as the efficient handling of multiple inference tasks. Then we turn to the training of graphical models and introduce the first lifted online training for relational models. Our training procedure and the MapReduce lifting for loopy belief propagation combine lifting with the traditional statistical approaches to scaling, thereby bridging the gap between statistical relational learning and traditional statistical machine learning

Solving Multi-objective Integer Programs using Convex Preference Cones

Esta encuesta tiene dos objetivos: en primer lugar, identificar a los individuos que fueron víctimas de algún tipo de delito y la manera en que ocurrió el mismo. En segundo lugar, medir la eficacia de las distintas autoridades competentes una vez que los individuos denunciaron el delito que sufrieron. Adicionalmente la ENVEI busca indagar las percepciones que los ciudadanos tienen sobre las instituciones de justicia y el estado de derecho en Méxic

A pragmatic value-driven approach to design with applications to energy-conscious buildings

Within the design community, a growing number of researchers have shown interest in extending the value context to include design, such that designers focus on maximizing the 'value' of the product or service, rather than simply satisfying a set of requirements. Thus, by applying a value-driven approach to design, the design community hopes to show that the magnitude of cost and schedule overruns may be reduced, or even eliminated. However, a common criticism of value-driven approaches is that they are difficult to implement, and not sufficiently pragmatic to be used for large scale engineering problems. Further, some argue that less rigorous methods appear to provide reasonable results in practice, and so rigor is not necessary. To reconcile these disparate viewpoints, it must be shown that value-driven approaches contribute to the design process, and can be implemented in practice at a reasonable cost. In response, I propose that the cause for the lack of practicality in value-driven approaches is attributable to the lack of well established and verified methods and tools. This dissertation presents research that attempts to address this deficiency by first developing a better understanding of effectiveness for methods that seek to enable value-driven design. This investigation leads to a concise set of desired characteristics for methods for guiding the development of value-models which then motivate the creation of a Systematic Method for Developing Value Models (SMDVM). To evaluate the SMDVM, it is applied to the design and retrofit of buildings for energy efficiency. A simulation workbench is developed as a tool to automate the development and analysis of value models for building design and retrofit contexts. The workbench enables architects, engineers, and other practitioners to easily incorporate uncertainty into analyses of building energy consumption, as part of a value-driven approach to design and retrofit.Ph.D

Multi-energy retail market simulation with autonomous intelligent agents

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. 2005. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Port

Game-Theoretic Safety Assurance for Human-Centered Robotic Systems

In order for autonomous systems like robots, drones, and self-driving cars to be reliably introduced into our society, they must have the ability to actively account for safety during their operation. While safety analysis has traditionally been conducted offline for controlled environments like cages on factory floors, the much higher complexity of open, human-populated spaces like our homes, cities, and roads makes it unviable to rely on common design-time assumptions, since these may be violated once the system is deployed. Instead, the next generation of robotic technologies will need to reason about safety online, constructing high-confidence assurances informed by ongoing observations of the environment and other agents, in spite of models of them being necessarily fallible.This dissertation aims to lay down the necessary foundations to enable autonomous systems to ensure their own safety in complex, changing, and uncertain environments, by explicitly reasoning about the gap between their models and the real world. It first introduces a suite of novel robust optimal control formulations and algorithmic tools that permit tractable safety analysis in time-varying, multi-agent systems, as well as safe real-time robotic navigation in partially unknown environments; these approaches are demonstrated on large-scale unmanned air traffic simulation and physical quadrotor platforms. After this, it draws on Bayesian machine learning methods to translate model-based guarantees into high-confidence assurances, monitoring the reliability of predictive models in light of changing evidence about the physical system and surrounding agents. This principle is first applied to a general safety framework allowing the use of learning-based control (e.g. reinforcement learning) for safety-critical robotic systems such as drones, and then combined with insights from cognitive science and dynamic game theory to enable safe human-centered navigation and interaction; these techniques are showcased on physical quadrotors—flying in unmodeled wind and among human pedestrians—and simulated highway driving. The dissertation ends with a discussion of challenges and opportunities ahead, including the bridging of safety analysis and reinforcement learning and the need to ``close the loop'' around learning and adaptation in order to deploy increasingly advanced autonomous systems with confidence