Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Evolutionary Computation

This book presents several recent advances on Evolutionary Computation, specially evolution-based optimization methods and hybrid algorithms for several applications, from optimization and learning to pattern recognition and bioinformatics. This book also presents new algorithms based on several analogies and metafores, where one of them is based on philosophy, specifically on the philosophy of praxis and dialectics. In this book it is also presented interesting applications on bioinformatics, specially the use of particle swarms to discover gene expression patterns in DNA microarrays. Therefore, this book features representative work on the field of evolutionary computation and applied sciences. The intended audience is graduate, undergraduate, researchers, and anyone who wishes to become familiar with the latest research work on this field

Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Steady-State ALPS for Real-Valued Problems

The two objectives of this paper are to describe a steady-state version of the Age-Layered Population Structure (ALPS) Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) and to compare it against other GAs on real-valued problems. Motivation for this work comes from our previous success in demonstrating that a generational version of ALPS greatly improves search performance on a Genetic Programming problem. In making steady-state ALPS some modifications were made to the method for calculating age and the method for moving individuals up layers. To demonstrate that ALPS works well on real-valued problems we compare it against CMA-ES and Differential Evolution (DE) on five challenging, real-valued functions and on one real-world problem. While CMA-ES and DE outperform ALPS on the two unimodal test functions, ALPS is much better on the three multimodal test problems and on the real-world problem. Further examination shows that, unlike the other GAs, ALPS maintains a genotypically diverse population throughout the entire search process. These findings strongly suggest that the ALPS paradigm is better able to avoid premature convergence then the other GAs

Multi-Agent Systems

This Special Issue ""Multi-Agent Systems"" gathers original research articles reporting results on the steadily growing area of agent-oriented computing and multi-agent systems technologies. After more than 20 years of academic research on multi-agent systems (MASs), in fact, agent-oriented models and technologies have been promoted as the most suitable candidates for the design and development of distributed and intelligent applications in complex and dynamic environments. With respect to both their quality and range, the papers in this Special Issue already represent a meaningful sample of the most recent advancements in the field of agent-oriented models and technologies. In particular, the 17 contributions cover agent-based modeling and simulation, situated multi-agent systems, socio-technical multi-agent systems, and semantic technologies applied to multi-agent systems. In fact, it is surprising to witness how such a limited portion of MAS research already highlights the most relevant usage of agent-based models and technologies, as well as their most appreciated characteristics. We are thus confident that the readers of Applied Sciences will be able to appreciate the growing role that MASs will play in the design and development of the next generation of complex intelligent systems. This Special Issue has been converted into a yearly series, for which a new call for papers is already available at the Applied Sciences journal’s website: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/applsci/special_issues/Multi-Agent_Systems_2019

An investigation of the behaviour of financial markets using agent-based computational models

PhD ThesisThis thesis aims to investigate the behaviour of financial markets by using agent-based computational models. By using a special adaptive form of the Strongly Typed Genetic Programming (STGP)- based learning algorithm and real historical data of stocks, indices and currency pairs I analysed various stylized facts of financial returns, market efficiency and stock market forecasts. This thesis also sought to discuss the following: 1) The appearance of herding in financial markets and the behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns; 2) The implications of trader cognitive abilities for stock market properties; 3) The relationship between market efficiency and market adaptability; 4) The development of profitable stock market forecasts and the price-volume relationship; 5) High frequency trading, technical analysis and market efficiency. The main findings and contributions suggest that: 1) The magnitude of herding behaviour does not contribute to the mispricing of assets in the long run; 2) Individual rationality and market structure are equally important in market performance; 3) Stock market dynamics are better explained by the evolutionary process associated with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis; 4) The STGP technique significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods such as Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters; 5) The dynamic relationship between price and volume revealed inconclusive forecasting picture; 6) There is no definite answers as to whether high frequency trading is harmful or beneficial to market efficiency

Automated stock trading : a multi-agent, evolutionary approach

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 125-130).Stock market trading has garnered much interest over the past few decades as it has been made easier for the general public to trade. It is certainly an avenue for wealth growth, but like all risky undertakings, it must be understood for one to be consistently successful. There are, however, too many factors that influence it for one to make completely confident predictions. Automated computer trading has therefore been championed as a potential solution to this problem and is used in major brokerage houses world-wide. In fact, a third of all EU and US stock trades in 2006 were driven by computer algorithms. In this thesis we look at the challenges posed by the automatic generation of stock trading rules and portfolio management. We explore the viability of evolutionary algorithms, including genetic algorithms and genetic programming, for this problem and introduce an agent-based learning framework for individual and social intelligence that is applicable to general stock markets. Statistical tests were applied to determine whether or not there was a significant difference between the evolutionary trading approach and an accepted benchmark. It was found that while the evolutionary trading agents comfortably realised higher portfolio values than the ALSI, there was insufficient evidence to suggest that the agents outperformed the ALSI in terms of portfolio performance. Additionally, it was observed that while the traders combined knowledge from the expert traders to form complex trading models, these models did not result in any statistically significant positive returns. It must be said, however, that there was overwhelming evidence to suggest that the traders learned rules that were highly successful in predicting stock movement