The European Forest and Agriculture Optimisation Model -- EUFASOM

Land use is a key factor to social wellbeing and has become a major component in political negotiations. This paper describes the mathematical structure of the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model. The model represents simultaneously observed resource and technological heterogeneity, global commodity markets, and multiple environmental qualities. Land scarcity and land competition between traditional agriculture, forests, nature reserves, pastures, and bioenergy plantations is explicitly captured. Environmental change, technological progress, and policies can be investigated in parallel. The model is well-suited to estimate competitive economic potentials of land based mitigation, leakage, and synergies and trade-offs between multiple environmental objectives.Land Use Change Optimization, Resource Scarcity, Market Competition, Welfare Maximization, Bottom-up Partial Equilibrium Analysis, Agricultural Externality Mitigation, Forest Dynamics, Global Change Adaptation, Environmental Policy Simulation, Integrated Assessment, Mathematical Programming, GAMS

Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and Results

Over the past 20 years, the term "agro-ecological zones methodology," or AEZ, has become widely used. However, it has been associated with a wide range of different activities that are often related yet quite different in scope and objectives. FAO and IIASA differentiate the AEZ methodology in the following activities: First, AEZ provides a standardized framework for the characterization of climate, soil, and terrain conditions relevant to agricultural production. In this context, the concepts of "length of growing period" and of latitudinal thermal climates have been applied in mapping activities focusing on zoning at various scales, from the subnational to the global level. Second, AEZ matching procedures are used to identify crop-specific limitations of prevailing climate, soil, and terrain resources, under assumed levels of inputs and management conditions. This part of the AEZ methodology provides estimates of maximum potential and agronomically attainable crop yields for basic land resources units. Third, AEZ provides the frame for various applications. The previous two sets of activities result in very large databases. The information contained in these data sets form the basis for a number of AEZ applications, such as quantification of land productivity, extents of land with rain-fed or irrigated cultivation potential, estimation of land's population supporting capacity, and multi-criteria optimization of the use and development of land resources. The AEZ methodology uses a land resources inventory to assess, for specified management conditions and levels of inputs, all feasible agricultural land-use options and to quantify anticipated production of cropping activities relevant in the specific agro-ecological context. The characterization of land resources includes components of climate, soils, and land form. The recent availability of digital global databases of climatic parameters, topography, soil and terrain, and land cover ahs allowed for revisions and improvements in calculation procedures. It has also allowed the expansion of assessments of AEZ crop suitability and land productivity potentials to temperate and boreal environments. This effectively enables global coverage for assessments of agricultural potentials. The AEZ methodologies and procedures have been extended and newly implemented to make use of these digital geographical databases, and to cope with specific characteristics of seasonal temperate and boreal climates. This report describes the methodological adaptations necessary for the global assessment and illustrates with numerous results a wide range of applications

A Global Map of Coastal Recreation Values: Results From a Spatially Explicit Based Meta-Analysis

The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression-based valuation approach. First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which includes also the grey literature and with the latest entry updated to February 2010. Second, the profile of each of the 253 observations of our dataset, which correspond to individual value estimates, was further enriched with characteristics of the built coastal environment (site accessibility, anthropogenic pressure, level of human development), characteristics of the natural coastal environment (presence of protected area, type of ecosystem, and marine biodiversity richness), geo-climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), as well as sociopolitical characteristics, such as the political stability index. In this context, the proposed meta-analytical valuation exercise explores the spatially explicit dimension of the values building upon Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. GIS are relied upon for the spatial characterization of the valued ecosystems, the determination of the role of spatially explicit variables in the meta analytical value transfer model, as well as for the value transfer exercise. The GIS characterization is observed to be extremely significant in explaining the spatial diversity of the estimates values and underlying explanatory factors. The resulting integrated valuation framework constitutes a worldwide première and it results in the first global map of the recreational value of coastal ecosystems. We argue that the presented global map may play an important role in studying the prioritization for the conservation of coastal areas from a social perspective.Built Coastal Environment, Natural Coastal Environment, Ecosystem Service Valuation, Geographic Information Systems, Mapping Ecosystem Values, Marine Biodiversity, Scaling up, Spatial Analysis, Spatial Economic Valuation, Value Transfer

A Global Map of Costal Recreation Values: results from a spatially explicit meta-analysis

The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression based valuation approach. First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which includes also the grey literature and with the latest entry updated to February 2010. Second, the profile of each of the 253 observations of our dataset, which correspond to individual value estimates, was further enriched with characteristics of the built coastal environment (site accessibility, anthropogenic pressure, level of human development), characteristics of the natural coastal environment (presence of protected area, type of ecosystem, and marine biodiversity richness), geo-climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), as well as sociopolitical characteristics, such as the political stability index. In this context, the proposed meta-analytical valuation exercise explores the spatially explicit dimension of the values building upon Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. GIS are relied upon for the spatial characterization of the valued ecosystems, the determination of the role of spatially explicit variables in the meta-analytical value transfer model, as well as for the value transfer exercise. The GIS characterization reveals to be extremely significant in explaining the spatial diversity of the estimates values and underlying explanatory factors. The resulting integrated valuation framework constitutes a worldwide première and it results in the first global map of the recreational value of coastal ecosystems. We argue that the presented global map may play an important role in studying the prioritization for the conservation of coastal areas from a social perspective.Built coastal environment, Natural coastal environment, Ecosystem service valuation, Geographic Information Systems, Mapping ecosystem values, Marine biodiversity, Scaling up, Spatial analysis, Spatial economic valuation, Value transfer

Hydrological controls of in situ preservation of waterlogged archaeological deposits

Environmental change caused by urban development, land drainage, agriculture or climate change may result in accelerated decay of in situ archaeological remains. This paper reviews research into impacts of environmental change on hydrological processes of relevance to preservation of archaeological remains in situ. It compares work at rural sites with more complex urban environments. The research demonstrates that both the quantity and quality of data on preservation status, and hydrological and chemical parameters collected during routine archaeological surveys need to be improved. The work also demonstrates the necessity for any archaeological site to be placed within its topographic and geological context. In order to understand preservation potential fully, it is necessary to move away from studying the archaeological site as an isolated unit, since factors some distance away from the site of interest can be important for determining preservation. The paper reviews what is known about the hydrological factors of importance to archaeological preservation and recommends research that needs to be conducted so that archaeological risk can be more adequately predicted and mitigated. Any activity that changes either source pathways or the dominant water input may have an impact not just because of changes to the water balance or the water table, but because of changes to water chemistry. Therefore, efforts to manage threatened waterlogged environments must consider the chemical nature of the water input into the system. Clearer methods of assessing the degree to which buried archaeological sites can withstand changing hydrological conditions are needed, in addition to research which helps us understand what triggers decay and what controls thresholds of response for different sediments and types of artefact