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    Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory

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    [EN] The present research proposes a novel methodology to solve the problems faced by investors who take into consideration different investment criteria in a fuzzy context. The approach extends the stochastic mean-variance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model where liquidity is considered to quantify portfolio's performance, apart from the usual metrics like return and risk. The uncertainty of the future returns and the future liquidity of the potential assets are modelled employing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The decision process of the proposed approach considers that portfolio selection is a multidimensional issue and also some realistic constraints applied by investors. Particularly, this approach optimizes the expected return, the risk and the expected liquidity of the portfolio, considering bound constraints and cardinality restrictions. As a result, an optimization problem for the constraint portfolio appears, which is solved by means of the NSGA-II algorithm. This study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio and the credibilistic STARR ratio for selecting the optimal portfolio. An empirical study on the S&P100 index is included to show the performance of the model in practical applications. The results obtained demonstrate that the novel approach can beat the index in terms of return and risk in the analyzed period, from 2008 until 2018.GarcĂ­a GarcĂ­a, F.; GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2020). Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy (Online). 26(6):1165-1186. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.13189S11651186266Acerbi, C., & Tasche, D. (2002). On the coherence of expected shortfall. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1487-1503. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2Ahmed, A., Ali, R., Ejaz, A., & Ahmad, I. (2018). 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Forecasting the Environmental, Social, and Governance Rating of Firms by Using Corporate Financial Performance Variables: A Rough Set Approach. Sustainability, 12(8), 3324. doi:10.3390/su12083324GarcĂ­a, GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, Oliver, & Riley. (2019). Selecting Socially Responsible Portfolios: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach. Sustainability, 11(9), 2496. doi:10.3390/su11092496GarcĂ­a, F., GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J., Oliver, J., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2019). A CREDIBILISTIC MEAN-SEMIVARIANCE-PER PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODEL FOR LATIN AMERICA. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 20(2), 225-243. doi:10.3846/jbem.2019.8317GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., & Moya, I. (2013). A MULTIOBJECTIVE MODEL FOR PASSIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION ON THE S&P 100 INDEX. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(4), 758-775. doi:10.3846/16111699.2012.668859GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., & Oliver, J. (2017). Index tracking optimization with cardinality constraint: a performance comparison of genetic algorithms and tabu search heuristics. Neural Computing and Applications, 30(8), 2625-2641. doi:10.1007/s00521-017-2882-2GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., Oliver, J., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2018). HYBRID FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK TO PREDICT PRICE DIRECTION IN THE GERMAN DAX-30 INDEX. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(6), 2161-2178. doi:10.3846/tede.2018.6394Goel, A., Sharma, A., & Mehra, A. (2018). Index tracking and enhanced indexing using mixed conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 335, 361-380. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2017.12.015GonzĂĄlez-Bueno, J. (2019). OptimizaciĂłn multiobjetivo para la selecciĂłn de carteras a la luz de la teorĂ­a de la credibilidad. Una aplicaciĂłn en el mercado integrado latinoamericano. Editorial Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.Gupta, P., Inuiguchi, M., & Mehlawat, M. K. (2011). 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    Selecting socially responsible portfolios: A fuzzy multicriteria approach

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    [EN] We propose a multi-objective approach for portfolio selection, which allows investors to consider not only return and downside risk criteria but also to include environmental, social and governance (ESG) scores in the investment decision-making process. Owing to the uncertain environment of portfolio selection, the return and ESG score of each asset are considered as independent L-R power fuzzy variables. To make the model more realistic, we take budget, floor ceiling and cardinality constraints into account. In order to select the optimal portfolio along the efficient frontier, we apply the Sortino ratio in a credibilistic environment. The subsequent empirical application uses a data set from Bloomberg's ESG Data in combination with US Dow Jones Industrial Average data. The experimental results show that the proposed model offers promising results for socially responsible investors seeking ethical and sustainability goals beyond the return-risk trade-off and its ability to beat the benchmarkGarcĂ­a GarcĂ­a, F.; Gonzalez-Bueno, J.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Riley, N. (2019). Selecting socially responsible portfolios: A fuzzy multicriteria approach. Sustainability. 11(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092496S119Ballestero, E., PĂ©rez-Gladish, B., & Garcia-Bernabeu, A. (2014). The Ethical Financial Question and the MCDM Framework. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 3-22. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-11836-9_1Zopounidis, C., & Doumpos, M. (2002). Multicriteria classification and sorting methods: A literature review. European Journal of Operational Research, 138(2), 229-246. doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(01)00243-0ARRIBAS, I., GARCÍA, F., GUIJARRO, F., OLIVER, J., & TAMOĆ IĆȘNIENĖ, R. (2016). MASS APPRAISAL OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE USING MULTILEVEL MODELLING. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 20(1), 77-87. doi:10.3846/1648715x.2015.1134702GarcĂ­a, F., Guijarro, F., Oliver, J., & TamoĆĄiĆ«nienė, R. (2018). HYBRID FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK TO PREDICT PRICE DIRECTION IN THE GERMAN DAX-30 INDEX. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(6), 2161-2178. doi:10.3846/tede.2018.6394Xidonas, P., Doukas, H., Mavrotas, G., & Pechak, O. (2015). Environmental corporate responsibility for investments evaluation: an alternative multi-objective programming model. Annals of Operations Research, 247(2), 395-413. doi:10.1007/s10479-015-1820-xMiralles-QuirĂłs, M. del M., & Miralles-QuirĂłs, J. L. (2015). Improving Diversification Opportunities for Socially Responsible Investors. Journal of Business Ethics, 140(2), 339-351. doi:10.1007/s10551-015-2691-4JERÓNIMO SILVESTRE, W., ANTUNES, P., & LEAL FILHO, W. (2016). THE CORPORATE SUSTAINABILITY TYPOLOGY: ANALYSING SUSTAINABILITY DRIVERS AND FOSTERING SUSTAINABILITY AT ENTERPRISES. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(2), 513-533. doi:10.3846/20294913.2016.1213199Rahman, S., Lee, C.-F., & Xiao, Y. (2016). The investment performance, attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 49(1), 91-116. doi:10.1007/s11156-016-0581-1Bouslah, K., Kryzanowski, L., & M’Zali, B. (2013). The impact of the dimensions of social performance on firm risk. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(4), 1258-1273. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.12.004Petrillo, A., De Felice, F., GarcĂ­a-MelĂłn, M., & PĂ©rez-Gladish, B. (2016). Investing in socially responsible mutual funds: Proposal of non-financial ranking in Italian market. Research in International Business and Finance, 37, 541-555. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.01.027Fowler, S. J., & Hope, C. (2007). A Critical Review of Sustainable Business Indices and their Impact. Journal of Business Ethics, 76(3), 243-252. doi:10.1007/s10551-007-9590-2JankalovĂĄ, M., & Jankal, R. (2017). The assessment of corporate social responsibility: approaches analysis. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 4(4), 441-459. doi:10.9770/jesi.2017.4.4(4)Smaliukienė, R., & Monni, S. (2019). A step-by-step approach to social marketing in energy transition. Insights into Regional Development, 1(1), 19-32. doi:10.9770/ird.2019.1.1(2)Anagnostopoulos, T., Skouloudis, A., Khan, N., & Evangelinos, K. (2018). Incorporating Sustainability Considerations into Lending Decisions and the Management of Bad Loans: Evidence from Greece. Sustainability, 10(12), 4728. doi:10.3390/su10124728Charlo, M., Moya, I., & Muñoz, A. (2017). Financial Performance of Socially Responsible Firms: The Short- and Long-Term Impact. Sustainability, 9(9), 1622. doi:10.3390/su9091622De Colle, S., & York, J. G. (2008). Why Wine is not Glue? The Unresolved Problem of Negative Screening in Socially Responsible Investing. Journal of Business Ethics, 85(S1), 83-95. doi:10.1007/s10551-008-9949-zDerwall, J., & Koedijk, K. (2009). Socially Responsible Fixed-Income Funds. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 36(1-2), 210-229. doi:10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02119.xWu, J., Lodorfos, G., Dean, A., & Gioulmpaxiotis, G. (2015). The Market Performance of Socially Responsible Investment during Periods of the Economic Cycle - Illustrated Using the Case of FTSE. Managerial and Decision Economics, 38(2), 238-251. doi:10.1002/mde.2772Chang, C. E., & Doug Witte, H. (2010). Performance Evaluation of U.S. Socially Responsible Mutual Funds: Revisiting Doing Good and Doing Well. American Journal of Business, 25(1), 9-24. doi:10.1108/19355181201000001Cortez, M. C., Silva, F., & Areal, N. (2008). The Performance of European Socially Responsible Funds. 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    Mean-Variance-Skewness Portfolio Selection Model Based on RBF-GA

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    The classical Markowitz’s mean-variance model in modern investment science uses variance as risk measure while it ignores the asymmetry of the return distribution. This article introduces skewness, V-type transaction costs, cardinality constraint and initial investment proportion, and builds a new class of nonlinear multi-objective portfolio model (mean-variance-skewness portfolio selection model). To solve the model, we develop a genetic algorithm(GA) which contains radial basis function(RBF) neural network, called RBF-GA. The experimental results show that the proposed model is more effective and more realistic than others

    Aggregate constrained inventory systems with independent multi-product demand: control practices and theoretical limitations

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    In practice, inventory managers are often confronted with a need to consider one or more aggregate constraints. These aggregate constraints result from available workspace, workforce, maximum investment or target service level. We consider independent multi-item inventory problems with aggregate constraints and one of the following characteristics: deterministic leadtime demand, newsvendor, basestock policy, rQ policy and sS policy. We analyze some recent relevant references and investigate the considered versions of the problem, the proposed model formulations and the algorithmic approaches. Finally we highlight the limitations from a practical viewpoint for these models and point out some possible direction for future improvements

    Uncertain Portfolio Selection with Background Risk and Liquidity Constraint

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    This paper discusses an uncertain portfolio selection problem with consideration of background risk and asset liquidity. In addition, the transaction costs are also considered. The security returns, background asset return, and asset liquidity are estimated by experienced experts instead of historical data. Regarding them as uncertain variables, a mean-risk model with background risk, liquidity, and transaction costs is proposed for portfolio selection and the crisp forms of the model are provided when security returns obey different uncertainty distributions. Moreover, for better understanding of the impact of background risk and liquidity on portfolio selection, some important theorems are proved. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the modeling idea

    Portfolio selection based on minmax rule and fuzzy set theory.

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    Yang, Fan.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011.Includes bibliographical references (p. 100-106).Abstracts in English and Chinese.Abstract --- p.iAcknowledgement --- p.iiiChapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1Chapter 1.1 --- Literature review --- p.1Chapter 1.2 --- The main contribution of this thesis --- p.5Chapter 1.3 --- Relations between the above three models --- p.7Chapter 2 --- Model 1 --- p.9Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.9Chapter 2.2 --- Minimax rule risk function --- p.11Chapter 2.3 --- Fuzzy liquidity of asset --- p.12Chapter 2.4 --- Notations --- p.15Chapter 2.5 --- Model formulation --- p.16Chapter 2.6 --- Numerical example and result --- p.25Chapter 3 --- Model 2 --- p.36Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.36Chapter 3.2 --- Notations --- p.39Chapter 3.3 --- Model formulation --- p.41Chapter 3.4 --- Numerical example and result --- p.45Chapter 4 --- Model 3 --- p.51Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.51Chapter 4.2 --- Notations --- p.52Chapter 4.3 --- Model formulation --- p.54Chapter 4.4 --- Numerical example and result --- p.62Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.68Chapter A --- Source Data for Model 1 --- p.71Chapter B --- Source Data for Model 2 --- p.80Chapter C --- Source Data for Model 3 --- p.90Bibliography --- p.10

    Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs in Saudi Arabia

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    The Saudi Government’s 2030 Vision directs local banks to increase and improve credit for the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) of the economy (Jadwa, 2017). Banks are, however, still finding it difficult to provide credit for small businesses that meet Basel’s capital requirements. Most of the current credit-risk models only apply to large corporations with little constructed for SMEs applications (Altman and Sabato, 2007). This study fills this gap by focusing on the Saudi SMEs perspective. My empirical work constructs a bankruptcy prediction model based on logistic regressions that cover 14,727 firm-year observations for an 11-year period between 2001 and 2011. I use the first eight years data (2001-2008) to build the model and use it to predict the last three years (2009-2011) of the sample, i.e. conducting an out-of-sample test. This approach yields a highly accurate model with great prediction power, though the results are partially influenced by the external economic and geopolitical volatilities that took place during the period of 2009-2010 (the world financial crisis). To avoid making predictions in such a volatile period, I rebuild the model based on 2003-2010 data, and use it to predict the default events for 2011. The new model is highly consistent and accurate. My model suggests that, from an academic perspective, some key quantitative variables, such as gross profit margin, days inventory, revenues, days payable and age of the entity, have a significant power in predicting the default probability of an entity. I further price the risks of the SMEs by using a credit-risk pricing model similar to Bauer and Agarwal (2014), which enables us to determine the risk-return tradeoffs on Saudi’s SMEs

    Scaled and stable mean-variance-EVaR portfolio selection strategy with proportional transaction costs

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    This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem with variance and Entropic Value-at-Risk (evar) as risk measures. As the variance measures the deviation around the expected return, the introduction of evar in the mean-variance framework helps to control the downside risk of portfolio returns. This study utilized the squared l2-norm to alleviate estimation risk problems arising from the mean estimate of random returns. To adequately represent the variance-evar risk measure of the resulting portfolio, this study pursues rescaling by the capital accessible after payment of transaction costs. The results of this paper extend the classical Markowitz model to the case of proportional transaction costs and enhance the efficiency of portfolio selection by alleviating estimation risk and controlling the downside risk of portfolio returns. The model seeks to meet the requirements of regulators and fund managers as it represents a balance between short tails and variance. The practical implications of the findings of this study are that the model when applied, will increase the amount of capital for investment, lower transaction cost and minimize risk associated with the deviation around the expected return at the expense of a small additional risk in short tails
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