A hierarchical Mamdani-type fuzzy modelling approach with new training data selection and multi-objective optimisation mechanisms: A special application for the prediction of mechanical properties of alloy steels

In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows to construct Mamdani fuzzy models considering both accuracy (precision) and transparency (interpretability) of fuzzy systems. The new methodology employs a fast hierarchical clustering algorithm to generate an initial fuzzy model efficiently; a training data selection mechanism is developed to identify appropriate and efficient data as learning samples; a high-performance Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) based multi-objective optimisation mechanism is developed to further improve the fuzzy model in terms of both the structure and the parameters; and a new tolerance analysis method is proposed to derive the confidence bands relating to the final elicited models. This proposed modelling approach is evaluated using two benchmark problems and is shown to outperform other modelling approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is successfully applied to complex high-dimensional modelling problems for manufacturing of alloy steels, using ‘real’ industrial data. These problems concern the prediction of the mechanical properties of alloy steels by correlating them with the heat treatment process conditions as well as the weight percentages of the chemical compositions

Automatic generation of fuzzy classification rules using granulation-based adaptive clustering

A central problem of fuzzy modelling is the generation of fuzzy rules that fit the data to the highest possible extent. In this study, we present a method for automatic generation of fuzzy rules from data. The main advantage of the proposed method is its ability to perform data clustering without the requirement of predefining any parameters including number of clusters. The proposed method creates data clusters at different levels of granulation and selects the best clustering results based on some measures. The proposed method involves merging clusters into new clusters that have a coarser granulation. To evaluate performance of the proposed method, three different datasets are used to compare performance of the proposed method to other classifiers: SVM classifier, FCM fuzzy classifier, subtractive clustering fuzzy classifier. Results show that the proposed method has better classification results than other classifiers for all the datasets used

Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks

The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches

Using rule extraction to improve the comprehensibility of predictive models.

Whereas newer machine learning techniques, like artifficial neural net-works and support vector machines, have shown superior performance in various benchmarking studies, the application of these techniques remains largely restricted to research environments. A more widespread adoption of these techniques is foiled by their lack of explanation capability which is required in some application areas, like medical diagnosis or credit scoring. To overcome this restriction, various algorithms have been proposed to extract a meaningful description of the underlying `blackbox' models. These algorithms' dual goal is to mimic the behavior of the black box as closely as possible while at the same time they have to ensure that the extracted description is maximally comprehensible. In this research report, we first develop a formal definition of`rule extraction and comment on the inherent trade-off between accuracy and comprehensibility. Afterwards, we develop a taxonomy by which rule extraction algorithms can be classiffied and discuss some criteria by which these algorithms can be evaluated. Finally, an in-depth review of the most important algorithms is given.This report is concluded by pointing out some general shortcomings of existing techniques and opportunities for future research.Models; Model; Algorithms; Criteria; Opportunities; Research; Learning; Neural networks; Networks; Performance; Benchmarking; Studies; Area; Credit; Credit scoring; Behavior; Time;

Building Credit-Risk Evaluation Expert Systems Using Neural Network Rule Extraction and Decision Tables.

In this paper, we evaluate and contrast four neural network rule extraction approaches for credit scoring. Experiments are carried out on three real life credit scoring data sets. Both the continuous and the discretised versions of all data sets are analysed. The rule extraction algorithms, Neurolinear, Neurorule, Trepan and Nefclass, have different characteristics with respect to their perception of the neural network and their way of representing the generated rules or knowledge. It is shown that Neurolinear, Neurorule and Trepan are able to extract very concise rule sets or trees with a high predictive accuracy when compared to classical decision tree (rule) induction algorithms like C4.5(rules). Especially Neurorule extracted easy to understand and powerful propositional ifthen rules for all discretised data sets. Hence, the Neurorule algorithm may offer a viable alternative for rule generation and knowledge discovery in the domain of credit scoring.Credit; Information systems; International; Systems;