An intelligent framework for monitoring student performance using fuzzy rule-based linguistic summarisation

Monitoring students' activity and performance is vital to enable educators to provide effective teaching and learning in order to better engage students with the subject and improve their understanding of the material being taught. We describe the use of a fuzzy Linguistic Summarisation (LS) technique for extracting linguistically interpretable scaled fuzzy weighted rules from student data describing prominent relationships between activity / engagement characteristics and achieved performance. We propose an intelligent framework for monitoring individual or group performance during activity and problem based learning tasks. The system can be used to more effectively evaluate new teaching approaches and methodologies, identify weaknesses and provide more personalised feedback on learner's progress. We present a case study and initial experiments in which we apply the fuzzy LS technique for analysing the effectiveness of using a Group Performance Model (GPM) to deploy Activity Led Learning (ALL) in a Master-level module. Results show that the fuzzy weighted rules can identify useful relationships between student engagement and performance providing a mechanism allowing educators to transparently evaluate teaching and factors effecting student performance, which can be incorporated as part of an automated intelligent analysis and feedback system

Intelligent failure-tolerant control

An overview of failure-tolerant control is presented, beginning with robust control, progressing through parallel and analytical redundancy, and ending with rule-based systems and artificial neural networks. By design or implementation, failure-tolerant control systems are 'intelligent' systems. All failure-tolerant systems require some degrees of robustness to protect against catastrophic failure; failure tolerance often can be improved by adaptivity in decision-making and control, as well as by redundancy in measurement and actuation. Reliability, maintainability, and survivability can be enhanced by failure tolerance, although each objective poses different goals for control system design. Artificial intelligence concepts are helpful for integrating and codifying failure-tolerant control systems, not as alternatives but as adjuncts to conventional design methods

Survivability modeling for cyber-physical systems subject to data corruption

Cyber-physical critical infrastructures are created when traditional physical infrastructure is supplemented with advanced monitoring, control, computing, and communication capability. More intelligent decision support and improved efficacy, dependability, and security are expected. Quantitative models and evaluation methods are required for determining the extent to which a cyber-physical infrastructure improves on its physical predecessors. It is essential that these models reflect both cyber and physical aspects of operation and failure. In this dissertation, we propose quantitative models for dependability attributes, in particular, survivability, of cyber-physical systems. Any malfunction or security breach, whether cyber or physical, that causes the system operation to depart from specifications will affect these dependability attributes. Our focus is on data corruption, which compromises decision support -- the fundamental role played by cyber infrastructure. The first research contribution of this work is a Petri net model for information exchange in cyber-physical systems, which facilitates i) evaluation of the extent of data corruption at a given time, and ii) illuminates the service degradation caused by propagation of corrupt data through the cyber infrastructure. In the second research contribution, we propose metrics and an evaluation method for survivability, which captures the extent of functionality retained by a system after a disruptive event. We illustrate the application of our methods through case studies on smart grids, intelligent water distribution networks, and intelligent transportation systems. Data, cyber infrastructure, and intelligent control are part and parcel of nearly every critical infrastructure that underpins daily life in developed countries. Our work provides means for quantifying and predicting the service degradation caused when cyber infrastructure fails to serve its intended purpose. It can also serve as the foundation for efforts to fortify critical systems and mitigate inevitable failures --Abstract, page iii

A Human Situation Awareness Support System to Avoid Technological Disasters

In many complex technological systems, accidents have primarily been attributed to human error. In the majority of these accidents the human operators were striving against significant challenges. They have to face data overload, the challenge of working with a complex system and the stressful task of understanding what is going on in the situation. Therefore, to design and implement complex technological systems where the information flow is quite high, and poor decisions may lead to serious consequences, Situation Awareness (SA) should be appropriately considered. A level 1 SA is highly supported in these systems through the various heterogeneous sensors and signal-processing methods but, for levels 2 and 3 there is still a need for concepts and methods. This work develops a system called the Human Situation Awareness Support System (HSASS) that supports the safety operators in an ever increasing amount of available risky status and alert information. The proposed system includes a new dynamic situation assessment method based on risk, which has the ability to support the operators understanding of the current state of the system, predict the near future, and suggest appropriate actions. The proposed system does not control the course of action and allows the human to act at his/her discretion in specific contexts

Instrumentation and Control Needs for Reliable Operation of Lunar Base Surface Nuclear Power Systems

As one of the near-term goals of the President's Vision for Space Exploration, establishment of a multi-person lunar base will require high-endurance power systems which are independent of the sun, and can operate without replenishment for several years. These requirements may be obtained using nuclear power systems specifically designed for use on the lunar surface. While it is envisioned that such a system will generally be supervised by humans, some of the evolutions required maybe semi or fully autonomous. The entire base complement for near-term missions may be less than 10 individuals, most or all of which may not be qualified nuclear plant operators and may be off-base for extended periods thus, the need for power system autonomous operation. Startup, shutdown, and load following operations will require the application of advanced control and health management strategies with an emphasis on robust, supervisory, coordinated control of, for example, the nuclear heat source, energy conversion plant (e.g., Brayton Energy Conversion units), and power management system. Autonomous operation implies that, in addition to being capable of automatic response to disturbance input or load changes, the system is also capable of assessing the status of the integrated plant, determining the risk associated with the possible actions, and making a decision as to the action that optimizes system performance while minimizing risk to the mission. Adapting the control to deviations from design conditions and degradation due to component failures will be essential to ensure base inhabitant safety and mission success. Intelligent decisions will have to be made to choose the right set of sensors to provide the data needed to do condition monitoring and fault detection and isolation because of liftoff weight and space limitations, it will not be possible to have an extensive set of instruments as used for earth-based systems. Advanced instrumentation and control technologies will be needed to enable this critical functionality of autonomous operation. It will be imperative to consider instrumentation and control requirements in parallel to system configuration development so as to identify control-related, as well as integrated system-related, problem areas early to avoid potentially expensive work-arounds . This paper presents an overview of the enabling technologies necessary for the development of reliable, autonomous lunar base nuclear power systems with an emphasis on system architectures and off-the-shelf algorithms rather than hardware. Autonomy needs are presented in the context of a hypothetical lunar base nuclear power system. The scenarios and applications presented are hypothetical in nature, based on information from open-literature sources, and only intended to provoke thought and provide motivation for the use of autonomous, intelligent control and diagnostics

An adaptable fuzzy-based model for predicting link quality in robot networks.

It is often essential for robots to maintain wireless connectivity with other systems so that commands, sensor data, and other situational information can be exchanged. Unfortunately, maintaining sufficient connection quality between these systems can be problematic. Robot mobility, combined with the attenuation and rapid dynamics associated with radio wave propagation, can cause frequent link quality (LQ) issues such as degraded throughput, temporary disconnects, or even link failure. In order to proactively mitigate such problems, robots must possess the capability, at the application layer, to gauge the quality of their wireless connections. However, many of the existing approaches lack adaptability or the framework necessary to rapidly build and sustain an accurate LQ prediction model. The primary contribution of this dissertation is the introduction of a novel way of blending machine learning with fuzzy logic so that an adaptable, yet intuitive LQ prediction model can be formed. Another significant contribution includes the evaluation of a unique active and incremental learning framework for quickly constructing and maintaining prediction models in robot networks with minimal sampling overhead

Gaussian process models for SCADA data based wind turbine performance/condition monitoring

Wind energy has seen remarkable growth in the past decade, and installed wind turbine capacity is increasing significantly every year around the globe. The presence of an excellent offshore wind resource and the need to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation are driving policy to increase offshore wind generation capacity in UK waters. Logistic and transport issues make offshore maintenance costlier than onshore and availability correspondingly lower, and as a result, there is a growing interest in wind turbine condition monitoring allowing condition based, rather than corrective or scheduled, maintenance.;Offshore wind turbine manufacturers are constantly increasing the rated size the turbines, and also their hub height in order to access higher wind speeds with lower turbulence. However, such scaling up leads to significant increments in terms of materials for both tower structure and foundations, and also costs required for transportation, installation, and maintenance. Wind turbines are costly affairs that comprise several complex systems connected altogether (e.g., hub, drive shaft, gearbox, generator, yaw system, electric drive and so on).;The unexpected failure of these components can cause significant machine unavailability and/or damage to other components. This ultimately increases the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and subsequently cost of energy (COE). Therefore, identifying faults at an early stage before catastrophic damage occurs is the primary objective associated with wind turbine condition monitoring.;Existing wind turbine condition monitoring strategies, for example, vibration signal analysis and oil debris detection, require costly sensors. The additional costs can be significant depending upon the number of wind turbines typically deployed in offshore wind farms and also, costly expertise is generally required to interpret the results. By contrast, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data analysis based condition monitoring could underpin condition based maintenance with little or no additional cost to the wind farm operator.;A Gaussian process (GP) is a stochastic, nonlinear and nonparametric model whose distribution function is the joint distribution of a collection of random variables; it is widely suitable for classification and regression problems. GP is a machine learning algorithm that uses a measure of similarity between subsequent data points (via covariance functions) to fit and or estimate the future value from a training dataset. GP models have been applied to numerous multivariate and multi-task problems including spatial and spatiotemporal contexts.;Furthermore, GP models have been applied to electricity price and residential probabilistic load forecasting, solar power forecasting. However, the application of GPs to wind turbine condition monitoring has to date been limited and not much explored.;This thesis focuses on GP based wind turbine condition monitoring that utilises data from SCADA systems exclusively. The selection of the covariance function greatly influences GP model accuracy. A comparative analysis of different covariance functions for GP models is presented with an in-depth analysis of popularly used stationary covariance functions. Based on this analysis, a suitable covariance function is selected for constructing a GP model-based fault detection algorithm for wind turbine condition monitoring.;By comparing incoming operational SCADA data, effective component condition indicators can be derived where the reference model is based on SCADA data from a healthy turbine constructed and compared against incoming data from a faulty turbine. In this thesis, a GP algorithm is constructed with suitable covariance function to detect incipient turbine operational faults or failures before they result in catastrophic damage so that preventative maintenance can be scheduled in a timely manner.;In order to judge GP model effectiveness, two other methods, based on binning, have been tested and compared with the GP based algorithm. This thesis also considers a range of critical turbine parameters and their impact on the GP fault detection algorithm.;Power is well known to be influenced by air density, and this is reflected in the IEC Standard air density correction procedure. Hence, the proper selection of an air density correction approach can improve the power curve model. This thesis addresses this, explores the different types of air density correction approach, and suggests the best way to incorporate these in the GP models to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty.;Finally, a SCADA data based fault detection algorithm is constructed to detect failures caused by the yaw misalignment. Two fault detection algorithms based on IEC binning methods (widely used within the wind industry) are developed to assess the performance of the GP based fault detection algorithm in terms of their capability to detect in advance (and by how much) signs of failure, and also their false positive rate by making use of extensive SCADA data and turbine fault and repair logs.;GP models are robust in identifying early anomalies/failures that cause the wind turbine to underperform. This early detection is helpful in preventing machines to reach the catastrophic stage and allow enough time to undertake scheduled maintenance, which ultimately reduces the O&M, cost and maximises the power performance of wind turbines. Overall, results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP algorithm in improving the performance of wind turbines through condition monitoring.Wind energy has seen remarkable growth in the past decade, and installed wind turbine capacity is increasing significantly every year around the globe. The presence of an excellent offshore wind resource and the need to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation are driving policy to increase offshore wind generation capacity in UK waters. Logistic and transport issues make offshore maintenance costlier than onshore and availability correspondingly lower, and as a result, there is a growing interest in wind turbine condition monitoring allowing condition based, rather than corrective or scheduled, maintenance.;Offshore wind turbine manufacturers are constantly increasing the rated size the turbines, and also their hub height in order to access higher wind speeds with lower turbulence. However, such scaling up leads to significant increments in terms of materials for both tower structure and foundations, and also costs required for transportation, installation, and maintenance. Wind turbines are costly affairs that comprise several complex systems connected altogether (e.g., hub, drive shaft, gearbox, generator, yaw system, electric drive and so on).;The unexpected failure of these components can cause significant machine unavailability and/or damage to other components. This ultimately increases the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and subsequently cost of energy (COE). Therefore, identifying faults at an early stage before catastrophic damage occurs is the primary objective associated with wind turbine condition monitoring.;Existing wind turbine condition monitoring strategies, for example, vibration signal analysis and oil debris detection, require costly sensors. The additional costs can be significant depending upon the number of wind turbines typically deployed in offshore wind farms and also, costly expertise is generally required to interpret the results. By contrast, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data analysis based condition monitoring could underpin condition based maintenance with little or no additional cost to the wind farm operator.;A Gaussian process (GP) is a stochastic, nonlinear and nonparametric model whose distribution function is the joint distribution of a collection of random variables; it is widely suitable for classification and regression problems. GP is a machine learning algorithm that uses a measure of similarity between subsequent data points (via covariance functions) to fit and or estimate the future value from a training dataset. GP models have been applied to numerous multivariate and multi-task problems including spatial and spatiotemporal contexts.;Furthermore, GP models have been applied to electricity price and residential probabilistic load forecasting, solar power forecasting. However, the application of GPs to wind turbine condition monitoring has to date been limited and not much explored.;This thesis focuses on GP based wind turbine condition monitoring that utilises data from SCADA systems exclusively. The selection of the covariance function greatly influences GP model accuracy. A comparative analysis of different covariance functions for GP models is presented with an in-depth analysis of popularly used stationary covariance functions. Based on this analysis, a suitable covariance function is selected for constructing a GP model-based fault detection algorithm for wind turbine condition monitoring.;By comparing incoming operational SCADA data, effective component condition indicators can be derived where the reference model is based on SCADA data from a healthy turbine constructed and compared against incoming data from a faulty turbine. In this thesis, a GP algorithm is constructed with suitable covariance function to detect incipient turbine operational faults or failures before they result in catastrophic damage so that preventative maintenance can be scheduled in a timely manner.;In order to judge GP model effectiveness, two other methods, based on binning, have been tested and compared with the GP based algorithm. This thesis also considers a range of critical turbine parameters and their impact on the GP fault detection algorithm.;Power is well known to be influenced by air density, and this is reflected in the IEC Standard air density correction procedure. Hence, the proper selection of an air density correction approach can improve the power curve model. This thesis addresses this, explores the different types of air density correction approach, and suggests the best way to incorporate these in the GP models to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty.;Finally, a SCADA data based fault detection algorithm is constructed to detect failures caused by the yaw misalignment. Two fault detection algorithms based on IEC binning methods (widely used within the wind industry) are developed to assess the performance of the GP based fault detection algorithm in terms of their capability to detect in advance (and by how much) signs of failure, and also their false positive rate by making use of extensive SCADA data and turbine fault and repair logs.;GP models are robust in identifying early anomalies/failures that cause the wind turbine to underperform. This early detection is helpful in preventing machines to reach the catastrophic stage and allow enough time to undertake scheduled maintenance, which ultimately reduces the O&M, cost and maximises the power performance of wind turbines. Overall, results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP algorithm in improving the performance of wind turbines through condition monitoring

Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment for Water Resources Decision Making

Water resources systems are vulnerable to natural disasters such as floods, wind storms, earthquakes, and various meteorological events. Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard that can cause damage to human life and property. A new methodology presented in this thesis is capable of flood risk management by: (a) addressing various uncertainties caused by variability and ambiguity; (b) integrating objective and subjective flood risk; and (c) assisting the flood risk management based on better understanding of spatial and temporal variability of risk. The new methodology is based on the use of fuzzy reliability theory. A new definition of risk is used and described using three performance indices (i) a combined fuzzy reliability-vulnerability, (ii) fuzzy robustness and (iii) fuzzy resiliency. The traditional flood risk management relies on either temporal or spatial variability, but not both. However, there is a need to understand the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and its spatial variability. The two-dimensional (2-D) fuzzy set that relates the universe of discourse and its membership degree, is not sufficient to address both, spatial and temporal, variations of flood risk. The theoretical contribution of this study is based on the development of a three dimensional (3-D) fuzzy set. The spatial and temporal variability of fuzzy performance indices – (i) combined reliability-vulnerability, (ii) robustness, and (iii) resiliency – have been implemented to (i) river flood risk analysis and (ii) urban flood risk analysis. The river flood risk analysis is illustrated using the Red River flood of 1997 (Manitoba, Canada) as a case study. The urban flood risk analysis is illustrated using the residential community of Cedar Hollow (London, Ontario, Canada) as a case study. The final results of the fuzzy flood reliability analysis are presented using maps that show the spatial and temporal variation of reliability-vulnerability, robustness and resiliency indices. Maps of fuzzy reliability indices provide additional decision support for (a) land use planning, (b) selection of appropriate flood mitigation strategies, (c) planning emergency management measures, (d) selecting an appropriate construction technology for flood prone areas, and (e) flood insurance

Advanced Approaches Applied to Materials Development and Design Predictions

This thematic issue on advanced simulation tools applied to materials development and design predictions gathers selected extended papers related to power generation systems, presented at the XIX International Colloquium on Mechanical Fatigue of Metals (ICMFM XIX), organized at University of Porto, Portugal, in 2018. In this issue, the limits of the current generation of materials are explored, which are continuously being reached according to the frontier of hostile environments, whether in the aerospace, nuclear, or petrochemistry industry, or in the design of gas turbines where efficiency of energy production and transformation demands increased temperatures and pressures. Thus, advanced methods and applications for theoretical, numerical, and experimental contributions that address these issues on failure mechanism modeling and simulation of materials are covered. As the Guest Editors, we would like to thank all the authors who submitted papers to this Special Issue. All the papers published were peer-reviewed by experts in the field whose comments helped to improve the quality of the edition. We also would like to thank the Editorial Board of Materials for their assistance in managing this Special Issue