Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis : Comparing alternative frameworks for integrated valuation of ecosystem services

Highlights • MDCA methods can account for multiple dimensions of well-being. • They can facilitate open and transparent public debate on ecosystem services. • Non-aggregative approaches to MCDA are recommended in the face of value conflict. • MCDA cannot provide representative information of the values of wider population . • Further research is needed on the potential of hybrid methodologies.Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods has been promoted as an alternative approach to monetary economic valuation of ecosystem services in Cost-Benefit Analysis framework (CBA). We discuss the potential of MCDA in providing a framework for integrated valuation of ecosystem services. We conclude that MCDA does in general perform better than CBA and associated monetary valuation techniques in several aspects that are essential in ecosystem service valuation. These include the ability of a valuation method to account for multiple dimensions of well-being, including ecological and economic as well as cultural and moral aspects of a policy or management problem and to facilitate open and transparent public debate on the pros and cons of alternative courses of action, including the distribution of gains and losses across beneficiaries of ecosystem services. The capacity of MCDA to articulate values related to ecosystem services depends on individual methods used in the MCDA process. More importantly, it depends of the ways in which the process is organized and facilitated. However, MCDA cannot provide representative information of the values of wider population. Further empirical and theoretical research is needed on the potential of hybrid methodologies to combine monetary valuation and MCDA in fruitful ways

Criteria Used in Research & Development Project Selection

Devido à corrida em busca de inovação, organizações do Brasil e do mundo todo enfrentam desafios constantes para se manterem relevantes no mercado, buscando as melhores formas de gerenciar seus projetos e utilizando dos recursos existentes para maximizar os benefícios e, em alguns casos, minimizar o risco ou custos de seus projetos. De acordo com uma revisão sistemática de 61 artigos, escritos entre 1970 a 2018, que utilizam métodos multi-critérios para tomada de decisões (MCDM) para selecionar projetos de Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento (P&D), apenas 19 deles dão uma explicação adequada dos critérios utilizados. Assim, a fim de contribuir com o processo de seleção de projetos, o objetivo principal deste trabalho é mostrar quais os tipos de critérios que apresentam maior relevância sobre os demais. Todo o processo é feito através de uma revisão sistemática da literatura: desde a seleção dos artigos, o agrupamento dos critérios e sua avaliação por dois especialistas utilizando o método Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Ao final, percebe-se o quão importante é o benefício financeiro para os especialistas, e que a inovação não é considerada tão relevante para eles e para a maioria dos autores dos artigos analisados

Fuzzy real options valuation for oil investments

Traditional valuation methods are less viable under uncertainty. Hence, other methods such as real options valuation models, which can minimize uncertainty, have become more important. In this study, the hybrid approach suggested by Carlsson and Fuller is examined for the case of discrete compounding as this approach better models risky cash flows. A new real options valuation model that will evaluate the investment in a more realistic way is suggested by postponing the defuzzification of parameters in early stages. The suggested model has been applied to the data of an oil field investment and in conclusion the loss of information caused by early‐defuzzification has been determined. Santrauka Tradiciniai vertinimo metodai yra mažiau patikimi esant neapibrėžtumams. Vadinasi, kiti metodai, tokie kaip realių pasirinkčių vertinimo modeliai, kurie gali minimizuoti neapibrėžtumus, tampa svarbesni. Šiame straipsnyje nagrinėjamas hibridinis Carlsson ir Fuller metodas, kuris buvo panaudotas diskrečiajam rizikingų pinigų srautų modeliavimui. Pasiūlytas naujas realių pasirinkčių vertinimo modelis, kuris realistiškiau įvertins investicijas, rodiklius apibūdinančią neapibrėžtą informaciją apdorojant ankstyvojoje stadijoje. Pasiūlytas modelis buvo pritaikytas investicijoms į naftos verslą modeliuoti, nustatytas informacijos nuostolis, kuris atsiranda dėl ankstyvo neapibrėžtų duomenų apdorojimo. First published online: 21 Oct 2010 Reikšminiai žodžiai: neapibrėžtos aibės, realių pasirinkčių vertinimas, neapibrėžtos pasirinktys, investavimas

Capturing Risk in Capital Budgeting

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis proposed research has the goal of proposing novel, reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical process and Integrated Risk Management to help the (DOD) with risk-based capital budgeting, Monte Carlo risk-simulation, predictive analytics, and stochastic optimization of acquisitions and programs portfolios with multiple competing stakeholders while subject to budgetary, risk, schedule, and strategic constraints. The research covers topics of traditional capital budgeting methodologies used in industry, including the market, cost, and income approaches, and explains how some of these traditional methods can be applied in the DOD by using DOD-centric non-economic, logistic, readiness, capabilities, and requirements variables. Stochastic portfolio optimization with dynamic simulations and investment efficient frontiers will be run for the purposes of selecting the best combination of programs and capabilities is also addressed, as are other alternative methods such as average ranking, risk metrics, lexicographic methods, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and others. The results include actionable intelligence developed from an analytically robust case study that senior leadership at the DOD may utilize to make optimal decisions. The main deliverables will be a detailed written research report and presentation brief on the approach of capturing risk and uncertainty in capital budgeting analysis. The report will detail the proposed methodology and applications, as well as a summary case study and examples of how the methodology can be applied.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.