Dynamic Model to Assess Organisational Readiness during Information System Implementation

This paper presents a methodology for assessing an organisation’s readiness to implement an information system (IS). We use the technique of fuzzy cognitive maps which draws on the theory of Neural Networks. The techniques comprising the model have been used in many applications, but their use in the planning of change management projects is relatively new. The paper explains the theory, presents a numerical example, and suggests practical uses of the model

A Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems

We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it. In our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.Comment: 24 pages, 5 Figure

Simulation of complex environments:the Fuzzy Cognitive Agent

The world is becoming increasingly competitive by the action of liberalised national and global markets. In parallel these markets have become increasingly complex making it difficult for participants to optimise their trading actions. In response, many differing computer simulation techniques have been investigated to develop either a deeper understanding of these evolving markets or to create effective system support tools. In this paper we report our efforts to develop a novel simulation platform using fuzzy cognitive agents (FCA). Our approach encapsulates fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) generated on the Matlab Simulink platform within commercially available agent software. We firstly present our implementation of Matlab Simulink FCMs and then show how such FCMs can be integrated within a conceptual FCA architecture. Finally we report on our efforts to realise an FCA by the integration of a Matlab Simulink based FCM with the Jack Intelligent Agent Toolkit

Super Fuzzy Matrices and Super Fuzzy Models for Social Scientists

This book introduces the concept of fuzzy super matrices and operations on them. This book will be highly useful to social scientists who wish to work with multi-expert models. Super fuzzy models using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Fuzzy Relational Maps, Bidirectional Associative Memories and Fuzzy Associative Memories are defined here. The authors introduce 13 multi-expert models using the notion of fuzzy supermatrices. These models are described with illustrative examples. This book has three chapters. In the first chaper, the basic concepts about super matrices and fuzzy super matrices are recalled. Chapter two introduces the notion of fuzzy super matrices adn their properties. The final chapter introduces many super fuzzy multi expert models.Comment: 280 page

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea