Continuous Improvement Through Knowledge-Guided Analysis in Experience Feedback

Continuous improvement in industrial processes is increasingly a key element of competitiveness for industrial systems. The management of experience feedback in this framework is designed to build, analyze and facilitate the knowledge sharing among problem solving practitioners of an organization in order to improve processes and products achievement. During Problem Solving Processes, the intellectual investment of experts is often considerable and the opportunities for expert knowledge exploitation are numerous: decision making, problem solving under uncertainty, and expert configuration. In this paper, our contribution relates to the structuring of a cognitive experience feedback framework, which allows a flexible exploitation of expert knowledge during Problem Solving Processes and a reuse such collected experience. To that purpose, the proposed approach uses the general principles of root cause analysis for identifying the root causes of problems or events, the conceptual graphs formalism for the semantic conceptualization of the domain vocabulary and the Transferable Belief Model for the fusion of information from different sources. The underlying formal reasoning mechanisms (logic-based semantics) in conceptual graphs enable intelligent information retrieval for the effective exploitation of lessons learned from past projects. An example will illustrate the application of the proposed approach of experience feedback processes formalization in the transport industry sector

Canaries in Technology Mines: Warning Signs of Transformative Progress in AI

In this paper we introduce a methodology for identifying early warning signs of transformative progress in AI, to aid anticipatory governance and research prioritisation. We propose using expert elicitation methods to identify milestones in AI progress, followed by collaborative causal mapping to identify key milestones which underpin several others. We call these key milestones ‘canaries’ based on the colloquial phrase ‘canary in a coal mine’to describe advance warning of an extreme event: in this case, advance warning of transformative AI. After describing and motivating our proposed methodology, we present results from an initial implementation to identify canaries for progress towards high-level machine intelligence (HLMI). We conclude by discussing the limitations of this method, possible future improvements, and how we hope it can be used to improve monitoring of future risks from AI progress

Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

From Manifesta to Krypta: The Relevance of Categories for Trusting Others

In this paper we consider the special abilities needed by agents for assessing trust based on inference and reasoning. We analyze the case in which it is possible to infer trust towards unknown counterparts by reasoning on abstract classes or categories of agents shaped in a concrete application domain. We present a scenario of interacting agents providing a computational model implementing different strategies to assess trust. Assuming a medical domain, categories, including both competencies and dispositions of possible trustees, are exploited to infer trust towards possibly unknown counterparts. The proposed approach for the cognitive assessment of trust relies on agents' abilities to analyze heterogeneous information sources along different dimensions. Trust is inferred based on specific observable properties (Manifesta), namely explicitly readable signals indicating internal features (Krypta) regulating agents' behavior and effectiveness on specific tasks. Simulative experiments evaluate the performance of trusting agents adopting different strategies to delegate tasks to possibly unknown trustees, while experimental results show the relevance of this kind of cognitive ability in the case of open Multi Agent Systems