5,059 research outputs found

    An Interactive Fuzzy Satisficing Method for Multiobjective Stochastic Integer Programming Problems through Simple Recourse Model

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    Two major approaches to deal with randomness or impression involved in mathematical programming problems have been developed. The one is called stochastic programming, and the other is called fuzzy programming. In this paper, we focus on multiobjective integer programming problems involving random variable coefficients in constraints. Using the concept of simple recourse, such multiobjective stochastic integer programming problems are transformed into deterministic ones. As a fusion of stochastic programming and fuzzy one, after introducing fuzzy goals to reflect the ambiguity of the decision maker's judgments for objective functions, we propose an interactive fuzzy satisficing method to derive a satisficing solution for the decision maker by updating the reference membership levels

    Fuzzy Random Facility Location Problems with Recourse

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    Abstract-The objective of this paper is to study facility location problems under a hybrid uncertain environment involving randomness and fuzziness. A two-stage fuzzy random facility location model with recourse is developed in which the demands and the costs are assumed to be fuzzy random variables. As in general the fuzzy random parameters in the model can be regarded as continuous fuzzy random variables with infinite realizations, the computation of the recourse requires solving infinite second-stage programming problems. Owing to this fact, the recourse function cannot be calculated analytically, which implies that the model cannot benefit from the use of methods of classical mathematical programming. In order to solve the location problems of this nature, we first develop techniques of fuzzy random simulation. In the sequel, by combining the fuzzy random simulation, simplex algorithm and binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO), a hybrid algorithm is proposed to solve the two-stage fuzzy random facility location model. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is provided

    Stochastic multi-period multi-product multi-objective Aggregate Production Planning model in multi-echelon supply chain

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    In this paper a multi-period multi-product multi-objective aggregate production planning (APP) model is proposed for an uncertain multi-echelon supply chain considering financial risk, customer satisfaction, and human resource training. Three conflictive objective functions and several sets of real constraints are considered concurrently in the proposed APP model. Some parameters of the proposed model are assumed to be uncertain and handled through a two-stage stochastic programming (TSSP) approach. The proposed TSSP is solved using three multi-objective solution procedures, i.e., the goal attainment technique, the modified ε-constraint method, and STEM method. The whole procedure is applied in an automotive resin and oil supply chain as a real case study wherein the efficacy and applicability of the proposed approaches are illustrated in comparison with existing experimental production planning method

    Energy and environmental systems planning under uncertainty-An inexact fuzzy-stochastic programming approach

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    In this study, an inexact fuzzy-stochastic energy model (IFS-EM) is developed for planning energy and environmental systems (EES) management under multiple uncertainties. In the IFS-EM, methods of interval parameter fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) and multistage stochastic programming with recourse (MSP) are introduced into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion and energy supply over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a case of planning regional-scale energy and environmental systems to demonstrate its applicability, where three cases are considered based on different energy and environmental management policies. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are helpful for supporting: (a) adjustment or justification of allocation patterns of regional energy resources and services, (b) formulation of local policies regarding energy consumption, economic development and environmental protection, and (c) in-depth analysis of tradeoffs among system cost, satisfaction degree and environmental requirement under multiple uncertainties. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

    Status of the differential transformation method

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    Further to a recent controversy on whether the differential transformation method (DTM) for solving a differential equation is purely and solely the traditional Taylor series method, it is emphasized that the DTM is currently used, often only, as a technique for (analytically) calculating the power series of the solution (in terms of the initial value parameters). Sometimes, a piecewise analytic continuation process is implemented either in a numerical routine (e.g., within a shooting method) or in a semi-analytical procedure (e.g., to solve a boundary value problem). Emphasized also is the fact that, at the time of its invention, the currently-used basic ingredients of the DTM (that transform a differential equation into a difference equation of same order that is iteratively solvable) were already known for a long time by the "traditional"-Taylor-method users (notably in the elaboration of software packages --numerical routines-- for automatically solving ordinary differential equations). At now, the defenders of the DTM still ignore the, though much better developed, studies of the "traditional"-Taylor-method users who, in turn, seem to ignore similarly the existence of the DTM. The DTM has been given an apparent strong formalization (set on the same footing as the Fourier, Laplace or Mellin transformations). Though often used trivially, it is easily attainable and easily adaptable to different kinds of differentiation procedures. That has made it very attractive. Hence applications to various problems of the Taylor method, and more generally of the power series method (including noninteger powers) has been sketched. It seems that its potential has not been exploited as it could be. After a discussion on the reasons of the "misunderstandings" which have caused the controversy, the preceding topics are concretely illustrated.Comment: To appear in Applied Mathematics and Computation, 29 pages, references and further considerations adde

    Inexact fuzzy-stochastic constraint-softened programming - A case study for waste management

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    In this study, an inexact fuzzy-stochastic constraint-softened programming method is developed for municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty, The developed method can deal with multiple uncertainties presented in terms of fuzzy sets, interval values and random variables. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the system constraints are allowed. This is realized through introduction of violation variables to soften system constraints, such that the model's decision space can be expanded under demanding conditions. This can help generate a range of decision alternatives under various conditions, allowing in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective, satisfaction degree, and constraint-violation risk. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning a MSW management system. The uncertain and dynamic information can be incorporated within a multi-layer scenario tree; revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of uncertain events. Solutions associated with different satisfaction degree levels have been generated, corresponding to different constraint-violation risks. They are useful for supporting decisions of waste flow allocation and system-capacity expansion within a multistage context. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

    Multi-objective optimisation under deep uncertainty

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    Most of the decisions in real-life problems need to be made in the absence of complete knowledge about the consequences of the decision. Furthermore, in some of these problems, the probability and/or the number of different outcomes are also unknown (named deep uncertainty). Therefore, all the probability-based approaches (such as stochastic programming) are unable to address these problems. On the other hand, involving various stakeholders with different (possibly conflicting) criteria in the problems brings additional complexity. The main aim and primary motivation for writing this thesis have been to deal with deep uncertainty in Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problems, especially with long-term decision-making processes such as strategic planning problems. To achieve these aims, we first introduced a two-stage scenario-based structure for dealing with deep uncertainty in Multi-Objective Optimisation (MOO)/MCDM problems. The proposed method extends the concept of two-stage stochastic programming with recourse to address the capability of dealing with deep uncertainty through the use of scenario planning rather than statistical expectation. In this research, scenarios are used as a dimension of preference (a component of what we term the meta-criteria) to avoid problems relating to the assessment and use of probabilities under deep uncertainty. Such scenario-based thinking involved a multi-objective representation of performance under different future conditions as an alternative to expectation, which fitted naturally into the broader multi-objective problem context. To aggregate these objectives of the problem, the Generalised Goal Programming (GGP) approach is used. Due to the capability of this approach to handle large numbers of objective functions/criteria, the GGP is significantly useful in the proposed framework. Identifying the goals for each criterion is the only action that the Decision Maker (DM) needs to take without needing to investigate the trade-offs between different criteria. Moreover, the proposed two-stage framework has been expanded to a three-stage structure and a moving horizon concept to handle the existing deep uncertainty in more complex problems, such as strategic planning. As strategic planning problems will deal with more than two stages and real processes are continuous, it follows that more scenarios will continuously be unfolded that may or may not be periodic. "Stages", in this study, are artificial constructs to structure thinking of an indefinite future. A suitable length of the planning window and stages in the proposed methodology are also investigated. Philosophically, the proposed two-stage structure always plans and looks one step ahead while the three-stage structure considers the conditions and consequences of two upcoming steps in advance, which fits well with our primary objective. Ignoring long-term consequences of decisions as well as likely conditions could not be a robust strategic approach. Therefore, generally, by utilising the three-stage structure, we may expect a more robust decision than with a two-stage representation. Modelling time preferences in multi-stage problems have also been introduced to solve the fundamental problem of comparability of the two proposed methodologies because of the different time horizon, as the two-stage model is ignorant of the third stage. This concept has been applied by a differential weighting in models. Importance weights, then, are primarily used to make the two- and three-stage models more directly comparable, and only secondarily as a measure of risk preference. Differential weighting can help us apply further preferences in the model and lead it to generate more preferred solutions. Expanding the proposed structure to the problems with more than three stages which usually have too many meta-scenarios may lead us to a computationally expensive model that cannot easily be solved, if it all. Moreover, extension to a planning horizon that too long will not result in an exact plan, as nothing in nature is predictable to this level of detail, and we are always surprised by new events. Therefore, beyond the expensive computation in a multi-stage structure for more than three stages, defining plausible scenarios for far stages is not logical and even impossible. Therefore, the moving horizon models in a T-stage planning window has been introduced. To be able to run and evaluate the proposed two- and three-stage moving horizon frameworks in longer planning horizons, we need to identify all plausible meta-scenarios. However, with the assumption of deep uncertainty, this identification is almost impossible. On the other hand, even with a finite set of plausible meta-scenarios, comparing and computing the results in all plausible meta-scenarios are hardly possible, because the size of the model grows exponentially by raising the length of the planning horizon. Furthermore, analysis of the solutions requires hundreds or thousands of multi-objective comparisons that are not easily conceivable, if it all. These issues motivated us to perform a Simulation-Optimisation study to simulate the reasonable number of meta-scenarios and enable evaluation, comparison and analysis of the proposed methods for the problems with a T-stage planning horizon. In this Simulation-Optimisation study, we started by setting the current scenario, the scenario that we were facing it at the beginning of the period. Then, the optimisation model was run to get the first-stage decisions which can implement immediately. Thereafter, the next scenario was randomly generated by using Monte Carlo simulation methods. In deep uncertainty, we do not have enough knowledge about the likelihood of plausible scenarios nor the probability space; therefore, to simulate the deep uncertainty we shall not use anything of scenario likelihoods in the decision models. The two- and three-stage Simulation-Optimisation algorithms were also proposed. A comparison of these algorithms showed that the solutions to the two-stage moving horizon model are feasible to the other pattern (three-stage). Also, the optimal solution to the three-stage moving horizon model is not dominated by any solutions of the other model. So, with no doubt, it must find better, or at least the same, goal achievement compared to the two-stage moving horizon model. Accordingly, the three-stage moving horizon model evaluates and compares the optimal solution of the corresponding two-stage moving horizon model to the other feasible solutions, then, if it selects anything else it must either be better in goal achievement or be robust in some future scenarios or a combination of both. However, the cost of these supremacies must be considered (as it may lead us to a computationally expensive problem), and the efficiency of applying this structure needs to be approved. Obviously, using the three-stage structure in comparison with the two-stage approach brings more complexity and calculations to the models. It is also shown that the solutions to the three-stage model would be preferred to the solutions provided by the two-stage model under most circumstances. However, by the "efficiency" of the three-stage framework in our context, we want to know that whether utilising this approach and its solutions is worth the expense of the additional complexity and computation. The experiments in this study showed that the three-stage model has advantages under most circumstances(meta-scenarios), but that the gains are quite modest. This issue is frequently observed when comparing these methods in problems with a short-term (say less than five stages) planning window. Nevertheless, analysis of the length of the planning horizon and its effects on the solutions to the proposed frameworks indicate that utilising the three-stage models is more efficient for longer periods because the differences between the solutions of the two proposed structures increase by any iteration of the algorithms in moving horizon models. Moreover, during the long-term calculations, we noticed that the two-stage algorithm failed to find the optimal solutions for some iterations while the three-stage algorithm found the optimal value in all cases. Thus, it seems that for the planning horizons with more than ten stages, the efficiency of the three-stage model be may worth the expenses of the complexity and computation. Nevertheless, if the DM prefers to not use the three-stage structure because of the complexity and/or calculations, the two-stage moving horizon model can provide us with some reasonable solutions, although they might not be as good as the solutions generated by a three-stage framework. Finally, to examine the power of the proposed methodology in real cases, the proposed two-stage structure was applied in the sugarcane industry to analyse the whole infrastructure of the sugar and bioethanol Supply Chain (SC) in such a way that all economics (Max profit), environmental (Min COâ‚‚), and social benefits (Max job-creations) were optimised under six key uncertainties, namely sugarcane yield, ethanol and refined sugar demands and prices, and the exchange rate. Moreover, one of the critical design questions - that is, to design the optimal number and technologies as well as the best place(s) for setting up the ethanol plant(s) - was also addressed in this study. The general model for the strategic planning of sugar- bioethanol supply chains (SC) under deep uncertainty was formulated and also examined in a case study based on the South African Sugar Industry. This problem is formulated as a Scenario-Based Mixed-Integer Two-Stage Multi-Objective Optimisation problem and solved by utilising the Generalised Goal Programming Approach. To sum up, the proposed methodology is, to the best of our knowledge, a novel approach that can successfully handle the deep uncertainty in MCDM/MOO problems with both short- and long-term planning horizons. It is generic enough to use in all MCDM problems under deep uncertainty. However, in this thesis, the proposed structure only applied in Linear Problems (LP). Non-linear problems would be an important direction for future research. Different solution methods may also need to be examined to solve the non-linear problems. Moreover, many other real-world optimisation and decision-making applications can be considered to examine the proposed method in the future

    Shades of Grey: A Critical Review of Grey-Number Optimization

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    A grey number is an uncertain number with fixed lower and upper bounds but unknown distribution. Grey numbers find use in optimization to systematically and proactively incorporate uncertainties expressed as intervals plus communicate resulting stable, feasible ranges for the objective function and decision variables. This article critically reviews their use in linear and stochastic programs with recourse. It summarizes grey model formulation and solution algorithms. It advances multiple counter-examples that yield risk-prone grey solutions that perform worse than a worst-case analysis and do not span the stable feasible range of the decision space. The article suggests reasons for the poor performance and identifies conditions for which it typically occurs. It also identifies a fundamental shortcoming of grey stochastic programming with recourse and suggests new solution algorithms that give more risk-adverse solutions. The review also helps clarify the important advantages, disadvantages, and distinctions between risk-prone and risk-adverse grey-programming and best/worst case analysis

    Gray Image extraction using Fuzzy Logic

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    Fuzzy systems concern fundamental methodology to represent and process uncertainty and imprecision in the linguistic information. The fuzzy systems that use fuzzy rules to represent the domain knowledge of the problem are known as Fuzzy Rule Base Systems (FRBS). On the other hand image segmentation and subsequent extraction from a noise-affected background, with the help of various soft computing methods, are relatively new and quite popular due to various reasons. These methods include various Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models (primarily supervised in nature), Genetic Algorithm (GA) based techniques, intensity histogram based methods etc. providing an extraction solution working in unsupervised mode happens to be even more interesting problem. Literature suggests that effort in this respect appears to be quite rudimentary. In the present article, we propose a fuzzy rule guided novel technique that is functional devoid of any external intervention during execution. Experimental results suggest that this approach is an efficient one in comparison to different other techniques extensively addressed in literature. In order to justify the supremacy of performance of our proposed technique in respect of its competitors, we take recourse to effective metrics like Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR).Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Fuzzy Rule Base, Image Extraction, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Membership Functions, Membership values,Image coding and Processing, Soft Computing, Computer Vision Accepted and published in IEEE. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1206.363

    Multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming for planning water resources allocation

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    In this study, a multistage scenario-based interval-stochastic programming (MSISP) method is developed for water-resources allocation under uncertainty. MSISP improves upon the existing multistage optimization methods with advantages in uncertainty reflection, dynamics facilitation, and risk analysis. It can directly handle uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions, and can support the assessment of the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) system constraints within a multistage context. It can also reflect the dynamics of system uncertainties and decision processes under a representative set of scenarios. The developed MSISP method is then applied to a case of water resources management planning within a multi-reservoir system associated with joint probabilities. A range of violation levels for capacity and environment constraints are analyzed under uncertainty. Solutions associated different risk levels of constraint violation have been obtained. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help water managers to identify desired policies under various economic, environmental and system-reliability conditions. Besides, sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the violation of the environmental constraint has a significant effect on the system benefit
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