AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION OF GOAL HIERARCHIES AMONG FARMERS

Results of a study of goal orderings of Saskatchewan farmers who participate in the province's FARMLAB Program are presented. We use the method of fuzzy pair-wise comparisons which allows the respondent to indicate a degree of preference between two alternative goal statements, thereby providing more information than in the binary case. From survey data ratio-scale scores are constructed for eight goal statements, and these are regressed on a set of farm enterprise and household characteristics and a psychological locus-of-control (or I-E) score. The empirical results indicate that goodness-of-fit measures are better than those obtained by other researchers, perhaps because a psychological measure (I-E score) is included as an explanatory variable for goal orderings.Farm Management,

Data-driven Soft Sensors in the Process Industry

In the last two decades Soft Sensors established themselves as a valuable alternative to the traditional means for the acquisition of critical process variables, process monitoring and other tasks which are related to process control. This paper discusses characteristics of the process industry data which are critical for the development of data-driven Soft Sensors. These characteristics are common to a large number of process industry fields, like the chemical industry, bioprocess industry, steel industry, etc. The focus of this work is put on the data-driven Soft Sensors because of their growing popularity, already demonstrated usefulness and huge, though yet not completely realised, potential. A comprehensive selection of case studies covering the three most important Soft Sensor application fields, a general introduction to the most popular Soft Sensor modelling techniques as well as a discussion of some open issues in the Soft Sensor development and maintenance and their possible solutions are the main contributions of this work

Is ECB Communication Effective?

In its Monthly Bulletin of November 2002, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that the monthly press conference held by its President represents one of its most important communication channels and that it provides a comprehensive summary of the policy relevant assessment of economic developments. After providing a glossary to translate the qualitative information of the press conferences into an ordered scale, we verify empirically whether and to what extent market expectations react to the information released by the ECB. We found that the public not only understand but also believe the signals sent by the European monetary authority.communication, credibility, ECB, glossary, Repo, Euribor, news approach

The Importance of the Wording of the ECB

This paper analyses the ECB communication, focusing in particular on its transparency dimension. We posit that if the ECB is transparent about its future policy decisions, then we should be able to forecast fairly well its future interest rate setting behaviour. We find that the predicting ability of the European monetary authority's words, is similar to the one implied by market-based measures of monetary policy expectations. Moreover, the ECB's wording provides complementary, rather than substitute, information with respect to economic and monetary variables.ECB communication, transparency, monetary policy forecast, empirical reaction function, Euribor rate curve

Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy Logic is becoming an essential method of solving problems in all domains. It gives tremendous impact on the design of autonomous intelligent systems. The purpose of this book is to introduce Hybrid Algorithms, Techniques, and Implementations of Fuzzy Logic. The book consists of thirteen chapters highlighting models and principles of fuzzy logic and issues on its techniques and implementations. The intended readers of this book are engineers, researchers, and graduate students interested in fuzzy logic systems

How Jurors Evaluate Fingerprint Evidence: The Relative Importance of Match Language, Method Information, and Error Acknowledgment

Fingerprint examiners use a variety of terms and phrases to describe a finding of a match between a defendant\u27s fingerprints and fingerprint impressions collected from a crime scene. Despite the importance and ubiquity of fingerprint evidence in criminal cases, no prior studies examine how jurors evaluate such evidence. We present two studies examining the impact of different match phrases, method descriptions, and statements about possible examiner error on the weight given to fingerprint identification evidence by laypersons. In both studies, the particular phrase chosen to describe the finding of a match-whether simple and imprecise or detailed and claiming near certainty-had little effect on participants\u27 judgments about the guilt of a suspect. In contrast, the examiner admitting the possibility of error reduced the weight given to the fingerprint evidence-regardless of whether the admission was made during direct or cross-examination. In addition, the examiner providing information about the method used to make fingerprint comparisons reduced the impact of admitting the possibility of error. We found few individual differences in reactions to the fingerprint evidence across a wide range of participant variables, and we found widespread agreement regarding the uniqueness of fingerprints and the reliability of fingerprint identifications. Our results suggest that information about the reliability of fingerprint identifications will have a greater impact on lay interpretations of fingerprint evidence than the specific qualitative or quantitative terms chosen to describe a fingerprint match

COMPARISON OF CLASSICAL ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) APPROACH AND FUZZY AHP APPROACH IN MULTIPLE-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLE INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND NETWORKS (CVISN) PROJECT

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) has emerged as an important technology with many possible applications in a wide variety of fields. It is said that RFID can perform well in transportation system. Nebraska Department of Motor Vehicles (NEDMV) is using this technique to perform an analysis on utilizing RFID license plates to assist with Commercial Vehicle Information Systems and Networks (CVISN) program with the cooperation of many other stakeholders. Previous House of Quality (HOQ) analysis evaluates stakeholders’ needs and provides the pairwise comparison values of six important technical requirements for each stakeholder. Based on these, this research aims to seek for the comprehensive ranking of the six technical requirements. The weights of different technical requirements vary a lot according to different stakeholders. As a result, assumptions are made to make it possible that fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach could be used to give weight rankings of this multiple-criteria decision making problem. Problem comes out naturally that whether or not fuzzy AHP is appropriate to solve this problem. To verify the feasibility of application of fuzzy AHP to CVISN project problem, benchmarking comparison of classical AHP and fuzzy AHP approaches is performed. The comparison bases on a series of statistical models with 240 randomly generated statistical data. Results of comparison indicate that the pairwise weight values of AHP approach positively affect the difference between the two approaches, and fuzzy AHP could narrow the differences of weights among different criteria. Benchmarking models provide basic parameters, based on which prediction intervals are built to verify the outcomes of CVISN project given by fuzzy AHP. Results show that fuzzy AHP is an appropriate approach for CVISN project. Finally a comprehensive weight vector of six technical requirements is provided by fuzzy AHP, catering to the requirements of further research on choosing a best RFID system