Small area estimation of general parameters with application to poverty indicators: A hierarchical Bayes approach

Poverty maps are used to aid important political decisions such as allocation of development funds by governments and international organizations. Those decisions should be based on the most accurate poverty figures. However, often reliable poverty figures are not available at fine geographical levels or for particular risk population subgroups due to the sample size limitation of current national surveys. These surveys cannot cover adequately all the desired areas or population subgroups and, therefore, models relating the different areas are needed to 'borrow strength" from area to area. In particular, the Spanish Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) produces national poverty estimates but cannot provide poverty estimates by Spanish provinces due to the poor precision of direct estimates, which use only the province specific data. It also raises the ethical question of whether poverty is more severe for women than for men in a given province. We develop a hierarchical Bayes (HB) approach for poverty mapping in Spanish provinces by gender that overcomes the small province sample size problem of the SILC. The proposed approach has a wide scope of application because it can be used to estimate general nonlinear parameters. We use a Bayesian version of the nested error regression model in which Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures and the convergence monitoring therein are avoided. A simulation study reveals good frequentist properties of the HB approach. The resulting poverty maps indicate that poverty, both in frequency and intensity, is localized mostly in the southern and western provinces and it is more acute for women than for men in most of the provinces.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS702 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A survey on computational intelligence approaches for predictive modeling in prostate cancer

Predictive modeling in medicine involves the development of computational models which are capable of analysing large amounts of data in order to predict healthcare outcomes for individual patients. Computational intelligence approaches are suitable when the data to be modelled are too complex forconventional statistical techniques to process quickly and eciently. These advanced approaches are based on mathematical models that have been especially developed for dealing with the uncertainty and imprecision which is typically found in clinical and biological datasets. This paper provides a survey of recent work on computational intelligence approaches that have been applied to prostate cancer predictive modeling, and considers the challenges which need to be addressed. In particular, the paper considers a broad definition of computational intelligence which includes evolutionary algorithms (also known asmetaheuristic optimisation, nature inspired optimisation algorithms), Artificial Neural Networks, Deep Learning, Fuzzy based approaches, and hybrids of these,as well as Bayesian based approaches, and Markov models. Metaheuristic optimisation approaches, such as the Ant Colony Optimisation, Particle Swarm Optimisation, and Artificial Immune Network have been utilised for optimising the performance of prostate cancer predictive models, and the suitability of these approaches are discussed

Machine learning prediction and analysis of students’ academic performance

The aims of this research were to develop a machine learning prediction Decision Tree classification model and analyze the success of engineering students based on their performances during secondary school education. The success of students was analyzed and measured as a binomial response to whether students successfully finished the first and the second study years. The developed model examined general success, number of awards obtained at competitions, special awards, average grades in mathematics, physics, and one of the official state languages during secondary school as predictor variables. General success was defined by summing up students’ grade point averages (GPA) of each school year. The number of courses transferred from the first into the second study year and students’ GPA obtained during the first study year were added as predictor variables in the analysis and development of a prediction model for the student’s success during the second study year and their enrollment in the third study year. Data showed that majority of the students enrolled in the first study year were gymnasium or technical high school graduates. Developed machine learning prediction model showed that for the success of enrolled students in the first study year General Success of students during secondary school is the most important predictor variable, followed by mathematics and physics grades. However, for the success of the students enrolled in the second study year the most important predictor variable was number of the courses transferred from the first into the second study year, followed by students’ GPA obtained during the first study year and General Success. Machine learning Decision Tree classification modeling was shown to be an adequate tool for the prediction of the success of engineering students during the first and second study years

Machine learning and multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria: An interesting combination for current and future research

The dissemination of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in several countries. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence that consists of conferring on computers the ability to learn from data. In this narrative review, we discuss three existing examples of the application of ML algorithms for assessing three different types of risk: (i) the risk of developing a MDR-GNB infection, (ii) the risk of MDR-GNB etiology in patients with an already clinically evident infection, and (iii) the risk of anticipating the emergence of MDR in GNB through the misuse of antibiotics. In the next few years, we expect to witness an increasingly large number of research studies perfecting the application of ML techniques in the field of MDR-GNB infections. Very importantly, this cannot be separated from the availability of a continuously refined and updated ethical framework allowing an appropriate use of the large datasets of medical data needed to build efficient ML-based support systems that could be shared through appropriate standard infrastructures

A Review of Algorithms for Credit Risk Analysis

The interest collected by the main borrowers is collected to pay back the principal borrowed from the depositary bank. In financial risk management, credit risk assessment is becoming a significant sector. For the credit risk assessment of client data sets, many credit risk analysis methods are used. The assessment of the credit risk datasets leads to the choice to cancel the customer\u27s loan or to dismiss the customer\u27s request is a challenging task involving a profound assessment of the information set or client information. In this paper, we survey diverse automatic credit risk analysis methods used for credit risk assessment. Data mining approach, as the most often used approach for credit risk analysis was described with the focus to various algorithms, such as neural networks. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</p

A systematic review of the prediction of hospital length of stay:Towards a unified framework

Hospital length of stay of patients is a crucial factor for the effective planning and management of hospital resources. There is considerable interest in predicting the LoS of patients in order to improve patient care, control hospital costs and increase service efficiency. This paper presents an extensive review of the literature, examining the approaches employed for the prediction of LoS in terms of their merits and shortcomings. In order to address some of these problems, a unified framework is proposed to better generalise the approaches that are being used to predict length of stay. This includes the investigation of the types of routinely collected data used in the problem as well as recommendations to ensure robust and meaningful knowledge modelling. This unified common framework enables the direct comparison of results between length of stay prediction approaches and will ensure that such approaches can be used across several hospital environments. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Google Scholar and Web of Science from 1970 until 2019 to identify LoS surveys which review the literature. 32 Surveys were identified, from these 32 surveys, 220 papers were manually identified to be relevant to LoS prediction. After removing duplicates, and exploring the reference list of studies included for review, 93 studies remained. Despite the continuing efforts to predict and reduce the LoS of patients, current research in this domain remains ad-hoc; as such, the model tuning and data preprocessing steps are too specific and result in a large proportion of the current prediction mechanisms being restricted to the hospital that they were employed in. Adopting a unified framework for the prediction of LoS could yield a more reliable estimate of the LoS as a unified framework enables the direct comparison of length of stay methods. Additional research is also required to explore novel methods such as fuzzy systems which could build upon the success of current models as well as further exploration of black-box approaches and model interpretability