Fleet Prognosis with Physics-informed Recurrent Neural Networks

Services and warranties of large fleets of engineering assets is a very profitable business. The success of companies in that area is often related to predictive maintenance driven by advanced analytics. Therefore, accurate modeling, as a way to understand how the complex interactions between operating conditions and component capability define useful life, is key for services profitability. Unfortunately, building prognosis models for large fleets is a daunting task as factors such as duty cycle variation, harsh environments, inadequate maintenance, and problems with mass production can lead to large discrepancies between designed and observed useful lives. This paper introduces a novel physics-informed neural network approach to prognosis by extending recurrent neural networks to cumulative damage models. We propose a new recurrent neural network cell designed to merge physics-informed and data-driven layers. With that, engineers and scientists have the chance to use physics-informed layers to model parts that are well understood (e.g., fatigue crack growth) and use data-driven layers to model parts that are poorly characterized (e.g., internal loads). A simple numerical experiment is used to present the main features of the proposed physics-informed recurrent neural network for damage accumulation. The test problem consist of predicting fatigue crack length for a synthetic fleet of airplanes subject to different mission mixes. The model is trained using full observation inputs (far-field loads) and very limited observation of outputs (crack length at inspection for only a portion of the fleet). The results demonstrate that our proposed hybrid physics-informed recurrent neural network is able to accurately model fatigue crack growth even when the observed distribution of crack length does not match with the (unobservable) fleet distribution.Comment: Data and codes (including our implementation for both the multi-layer perceptron, the stress intensity and Paris law layers, the cumulative damage cell, as well as python driver scripts) used in this manuscript are publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/PML-UCF/pinn. The data and code are released under the MIT Licens

Comparative Study of Vibration Condition Indicators for Detecting Cracks in Spur Gears

This paper reports the results of an empirical study on the tooth breakage failure mode in spur gears. Of four dominant gear failure modes (breakage, wear, pitting, and scoring), tooth breakage is the most precipitous and often leads to catastrophic failures. The cracks were initiated using a fatigue tester and a custom-designed single-tooth bending fixture to simulate over-load conditions, instead of traditional notching using wire electrical discharge machining (EDM). The cracks were then propagated on a dynamometer. The ground truth of damage level during crack propagation was monitored with crack-propagation sensors. Ten crack propagations have been performed to compare the existing condition indicators (CIs) with respect to their: ability to detect a crack, ability to assess the damage, and sensitivity to sensor placement. Of more than thirty computed CIs, this paper compares five commonly used: raw RMS, FM0, NA4, raw kurtosis, and NP4. The performance of combined CIs was also investigated, using linear, logistic, and boosted regression trees based feature fusion

Positioning of High-speed Trains using 5G New Radio Synchronization Signals

We study positioning of high-speed trains in 5G new radio (NR) networks by utilizing specific NR synchronization signals. The studies are based on simulations with 3GPP-specified radio channel models including path loss, shadowing and fast fading effects. The considered positioning approach exploits measurement of Time-Of-Arrival (TOA) and Angle-Of-Departure (AOD), which are estimated from beamformed NR synchronization signals. Based on the given measurements and the assumed train movement model, the train position is tracked by using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which is able to handle the non-linear relationship between the TOA and AOD measurements, and the estimated train position parameters. It is shown that in the considered scenario the TOA measurements are able to achieve better accuracy compared to the AOD measurements. However, as shown by the results, the best tracking performance is achieved, when both of the measurements are considered. In this case, a very high, sub-meter, tracking accuracy can be achieved for most (>75%) of the tracking time, thus achieving the positioning accuracy requirements envisioned for the 5G NR. The pursued high-accuracy and high-availability positioning technology is considered to be in a key role in several envisioned HST use cases, such as mission-critical autonomous train systems.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, IEEE WCNC 2018 (Wireless Communications and Networking Conference

A review of physics-based models in prognostics: application to gears and bearings of rotating machinery

Health condition monitoring for rotating machinery has been developed for many years due to its potential to reduce the cost of the maintenance operations and increase availability. Covering aspects include sensors, signal processing, health assessment and decision-making. This article focuses on prognostics based on physics-based models. While the majority of the research in health condition monitoring focuses on data-driven techniques, physics-based techniques are particularly important if accuracy is a critical factor and testing is restricted. Moreover, the benefits of both approaches can be combined when data-driven and physics-based techniques are integrated. This article reviews the concept of physics-based models for prognostics. An overview of common failure modes of rotating machinery is provided along with the most relevant degradation mechanisms. The models available to represent these degradation mechanisms and their application for prognostics are discussed. Models that have not been applied to health condition monitoring, for example, wear due to metal–metal contact in hydrodynamic bearings, are also included due to its potential for health condition monitoring. The main contribution of this article is the identification of potential physics-based models for prognostics in rotating machinery

Visual motion tracking and sensor fusion for kite power systems

An estimation approach is presented for kite power systems with groundbased actuation and generation. Line-based estimation of the kite state, including position and heading, limits the achievable cycle efficiency of such airborne wind energy systems due to significant estimation delay and line sag. We propose a filtering scheme to fuse onboard inertial measurements with ground-based line data for ground-based systems in pumping operation. Estimates are computed using an extended Kalman filtering scheme with a sensor-driven kinematic process model which propagates and corrects for inertial sensor biases. We further propose a visual motion tracking approach to extract estimates of the kite position from ground-based video streams. The approach combines accurate object detection with fast motion tracking to ensure long-term object tracking in real time. We present experimental results of the visual motion tracking and inertial sensor fusion on a ground-based kite power system in pumping operation and compare both methods to an existing estimation scheme based on line measurements

Roadway System Assessment Using Bluetooth-Based Automatic Vehicle Identification Travel Time Data

This monograph is an exposition of several practice-ready methodologies for automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data collection systems. This includes considerations in the physical setup of the collection system as well as the interpretation of the data. An extended discussion is provided, with examples, demonstrating data techniques for converting the raw data into more concise metrics and views. Examples of statistical before-after tests are also provided. A series of case studies were presented that focus on various real-world applications, including the impact of winter weather on freeway operations, the economic benefit of traffic signal retiming, and the estimation of origin-destination matrices from travel time data. The technology used in this report is Bluetooth MAC address matching, but the concepts are extendible to other AVI data sources