A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions

Markov-modulated Brownian motion with two reflecting barriers

We consider a Markov-modulated Brownian motion reflected to stay in a strip [0,B]. The stationary distribution of this process is known to have a simple form under some assumptions. We provide a short probabilistic argument leading to this result and explaining its simplicity. Moreover, this argument allows for generalizations including the distribution of the reflected process at an independent exponentially distributed epoch. Our second contribution concerns transient behavior of the reflected system. We identify the joint law of the processes t,X(t),J(t) at inverse local times.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figur

Stabilization of an overloaded queueing network using measurement-based admission control

Admission control can be employed to avoid congestion in queueing networks subject to overload. In distributed networks the admission decisions are often based on imperfect measurements on the network state. This paper studies how the lack of complete state information affects the system performance by considering a simple network model for distributed admission control. The stability region of the network is characterized and it is shown how feedback signaling makes the system very sensitive to its parameters.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1143936256 in the Journal of Applied Probability (http://projecteuclid.org/jap) by the Applied Probability Trust (http://www.appliedprobability.org/

Validity of heavy traffic steady-state approximations in generalized Jackson Networks

We consider a single class open queueing network, also known as a generalized Jackson network (GJN). A classical result in heavy-traffic theory asserts that the sequence of normalized queue length processes of the GJN converge weakly to a reflected Brownian motion (RBM) in the orthant, as the traffic intensity approaches unity. However, barring simple instances, it is still not known whether the stationary distribution of RBM provides a valid approximation for the steady-state of the original network. In this paper we resolve this open problem by proving that the re-scaled stationary distribution of the GJN converges to the stationary distribution of the RBM, thus validating a so-called ``interchange-of-limits'' for this class of networks. Our method of proof involves a combination of Lyapunov function techniques, strong approximations and tail probability bounds that yield tightness of the sequence of stationary distributions of the GJN.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000638 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org