Functional models and extending strategies for ecological networks

Complex network analysis is rising as an essential tool to understand properties of ecological landscape networks, and as an aid to land management. The most common methods to build graph models of ecological networks are based on representing functional connectivity with respect to a target species. This has provided good results, but the lack of a model able to capture general properties of the network may be seen as a shortcoming when the activity involves the proposal for modifications in land use. Similarity scores, calculated between nature protection areas, may act as a building block for a graph model intended to carry a higher degree of generality. The present work compares several design choices for similarity-based graphs, in order to determine which is most suitable for use in land management

Congruence between breeding and wintering biodiversity hotspots: A case study in farmlands of Western Poland

Farmland landscapes are recognized as important ecosystems, not only for their rich biodiversity but equally so for the human beings who live and work in these places. However, biodiversity varies among sites (spatial change) and among seasons (temporal change). In this work, we tested the hypothesis that bird diversity hotspots distribution for breeding is congruent with bird diversity hotspots for wintering season, focusing also the representation of protected areas for the conservation of local hotspots. We proposed a framework based on the  use of species richness, functional diversity, and evolutionary distinctiveness to characterize avian communities. Although our findings show that the spatial distribution of local bird hotspots differed slightly between seasons, the protected areas’ representation was similar in both seasons. Protected areas covered 65% of the most important zones for breeding and 71% for the wintering season in the farmland studied. Functional diversity showed similar patterns as did bird species richness, but this measure can be most effective for highlighting differences on bird community composition. Evolutionary distinctiveness was less congruent with species richness and functional diversity, among seasons. Our findings suggest that inter-seasonal spatial congruence of local hotspots can be considered as suitable areas upon which to concentrate greater conservation efforts. However, even considering the relative congruence of avian diversity metrics at a local spatial scale, simultaneous analysis of protected areas while inter-seasonally considering hotspots, can provide a more complete representation of ecosystems for assessing the conservation status and designating priority areas

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

A quantitative narrative on movement, disease and patch exploitation in nesting agent groups

Abstract Animal relocation data has recently become considerably more ubiquitous, finely structured (collection frequencies measured in minutes) and co-variate rich (physiology of individuals, environmental and landscape information, and accelerometer data). To better understand the impacts of ecological interactions, individual movement and disease on global change ecology, including wildlife management and conservation, it is important to have simulators that will provide demographic, movement, and epidemiology null models against which to compare patterns observed in empirical systems. Such models may then be used to develop quantitative narratives that enhance our intuition and understanding of the relationship between population structure and generative processes: in essence, along with empirical and experimental narratives, quantitative narratives are used to advance ecological epistemology. Here we describe a simulator that accounts for the influence of consumer-resource interactions, existence of social groups anchored around a central location, territoriality, group-switching behavior, and disease dynamics on population size. We use this simulator to develop new and reinforce existing quantitative narratives and point out areas for future study. Author summary The health and viability of species are of considerable concern to all nature lovers. Population models are central to our efforts to assess the numerical and ecological status of species and threats posed by climate change. Models, however, are crude caricatures of complex ecological systems. So how do we construct reliable assessment models able to capture processes essential to predicating the impacts of global change on population viability without getting tied up in their vast complexities? We broach this question and demonstrate how models focusing at the level of the individual (i.e., agent-based models) are tools for developing robust, narratives to augment narratives arising purely from empirical data sources and experimental outcomes. We do this in the context of nesting social groups, foraging for food, while exhibiting territoriality and group-switching behavior; and, we evaluate the impact of disease on the viability of such populations

Complementary network-based approaches for exploring genetic structure and functional connectivity in two vulnerable, endemic ground squirrels

The persistence of small populations is influenced by genetic structure and functional connectivity. We used two network-based approaches to understand the persistence of the northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus) and the southern Idaho ground squirrel (U. endemicus), two congeners of conservation concern. These graph theoretic approaches are conventionally applied to social or transportation networks, but here are used to study population persistence and connectivity. Population graph analyses revealed that local extinction rapidly reduced connectivity for the southern species, while connectivity for the northern species could be maintained following local extinction. Results from gravity models complemented those of population graph analyses, and indicated that potential vegetation productivity and topography drove connectivity in the northern species. For the southern species, development (roads) and small-scale topography reduced connectivity, while greater potential vegetation productivity increased connectivity. Taken together, the results of the two network-based methods (population graph analyses and gravity models) suggest the need for increased conservation action for the southern species, and that management efforts have been effective at maintaining habitat quality throughout the current range of the northern species. To prevent further declines, we encourage the continuation of management efforts for the northern species, whereas conservation of the southern species requires active management and additional measures to curtail habitat fragmentation. Our combination of population graph analyses and gravity models can inform conservation strategies of other species exhibiting patchy distributions

Innovation and research in organic farming: A multi‐level approach to facilitate cooperation among stakeholders

A wider range of stakeholders is expected to be involved in organic research. A decision‐support tool is needed to define priorities and to allocate tasks among institutions. Based on research and management experience in organic research, the authors have developed a framework for experimental and research projects. The framework is based on a multi‐level approach. Each level is defined according to the directness of the innovation impact on the organic systems. The projects carried out for each level were assessed over a ten-year period. Two applications are presented: analysis of crop protection strategies in horticulture and plant breeding programmes. When combined with four development models of organic farming, this multi‐level analysis appears to be promising for defining research agendas

40 Years Theory and Model at Wageningen UR

"Theorie en model" zo luidde de titel van de inaugurele rede van CT de Wit (1968). Reden genoeg voor een (theoretische) terugblik op zijn wer

Defining Landscape Resistance Values in Least-Cost Connectivity Models for the Invasive Grey Squirrel: A Comparison of Approaches Using Expert-Opinion and Habitat Suitability Modelling

Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a leastcost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a leastcost approach to mapping ecological networks.This project was funded by the Forestry Commission GB and the National School of Forestry at the University of Cumbria. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Consuming the million-mile electric car

Unlike for many consumer products, there has been no strong environmental case for extending the life of internal combustion engine cars as the majority of their environmental impact is fuel consumed in use and not the energy and materials involved in manufacturing. Indeed, with improving fuel efficiency, product life extension is environmentally undesirable; older, less fuel-efficient cars need to be replaced by newer more fuel-efficient models. Electric vehicles (EVs) are predominantly considered environmentally beneficial by using an increasingly decarbonised fuel – electricity. However, LCA analyses show that EVs have substantial environmental impacts in their materials, manufacturing and disposal. The high ‘embedded’ environmental impacts of EVs fundamentally change the case for product life extension. Thus, product life extension is desirable for EVs and they are suited to it. While petrol and diesel cars have an average lifetime mileage of 124,000 miles (200,000 Kilometres), the case for the million-mile (1.6 million Kilometre) electric car appears strong. Although it may be technically possible to produce a million-mile EV, how will such vehicles be consumed given that the car consumption is complex, involving, for example, extracting use and symbolic value? In this contribution we explore the nature of the relationship between cars and the consumer that moves beyond technical and functional value to understand what form of access consumers require to an EV across its entire 50-year life. If such consumption aspects are overlooked then, even if the million-mile car is technically viable, it is unlikely to be adopted and the environmental benefits they may yield will be lost.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio