MISSION ENGINEERING FOR HYBRID FORCE 2025

This report focuses on the mission engineering process for a hybrid force in 2025. Updated tasking from OPNAV N9I emphasized the necessity of focusing on the benefits of using cost-conservative unmanned systems. Specifically, the focus was placed on the near-peer competitor China and the problems that could be expected in an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) situation in the South China Sea. The Naval Surface Warfare Center mission engineering approach was used to identify specific vignettes for proposed alternative fleet architectures and then analyzed using combat simulation and optimization models. Research on performance characteristics and cost were compiled on current unmanned systems, specifically those in development at a high technology readiness level. Proposed unmanned systems architectures were developed as solutions to the A2/AD problem and proposed vignettes. The unmanned systems architectures were then run through an optimization model to maximize system performance while minimizing cost. The results of the architecture optimization were then input into modeling and simulation. The overall effectiveness of each architecture in each vignette were then compared to find the most effective solution. An analysis of the results was performed to show the expected mission effectiveness and proposed cost of utilizing the proposed solution unmanned architectures. The most effective architectures included search, counter swarm, delivery, and attack systems.Lieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyMajor, Republic of Singapore NavyMajor, Singapore ArmyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyLieutenant, United States NavyCommander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

USMC VERTICAL TAKEOFF AND LANDING AIRCRAFT: HUMAN–MACHINE TEAMING FOR CONTROLLING UNMANNED AERIAL SYSTEMS

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) is investing in aviation technologies through its Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) aircraft program that will enhance mission superiority and warfare dominance against both conventional and asymmetric threats. One of the USMC program initiatives is to launch unmanned aerial systems (UAS) from future human-piloted VTOL aircraft for collaborative hybrid (manned and unmanned) missions. This hybrid VTOL-UAS capability will support USMC intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), electronic warfare (EW), communications relay, and kinetic strike air to ground missions. This capstone project studied the complex human-machine interactions involved in the future hybrid VTOL-UAS capability through model-based systems engineering analysis, coactive design interdependence analysis, and modeling and simulation experimentation. The capstone focused on a strike coordination and reconnaissance (SCAR) mission involving a manned VTOL platform, a VTOL-launched UAS, and a ground control station (GCS). The project produced system requirements, a system architecture, a conceptual design, and insights into the human-machine teaming aspects of this future VTOL capability.Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

A model-based approach to System of Systems risk management

The failure of many System of Systems (SoS) enterprises can be attributed to the inappropriate application of traditional Systems Engineering (SE) processes within the SoS domain, because of the mistaken belief that a SoS can be regarded as a single large, or complex, system. SoS Engineering (SoSE) is a sub-discipline of SE; Risk Management and Modelling and Simulation (M&S) are key areas within SoSE, both of which also lie within the traditional SE domain. Risk Management of SoS requires a different approach to that currently taken for individual systems; if risk is managed for each component system then it cannot be assumed that the aggregated affect will be to mitigate risk at the SoS level. A literature review was undertaken examining three themes: (1) SoS Engineering (SoSE), (2) M&S and (3) Risk. Theme 1 of the literature provided insight into the activities comprising SoSE and its difference from traditional SE with risk management identified as a key activity. The second theme discussed the application of M&S to SoS, providing an output, which supported the identification of appropriate techniques and concluding that, the inherent complexity of a SoS required the use of M&S in order to support SoSE activities. Current risk management approaches were reviewed in theme 3 as well as the management of SoS risk. Although some specific examples of the management of SoS risk were found, no mature, general approach was identified, indicating a gap in current knowledge. However, it was noted most of these examples were underpinned by M&S approaches. It was therefore concluded a general approach SoS risk management utilising M&S methods would be of benefit. In order to fill the gap identified in current knowledge, this research proposed a new model based approach to Risk Management where risk identification was supported by a framework, which combined SoS system of interest dimensions with holistic risk types, where the resulting risks and contributing factors are captured in a causal network. Analysis of the causal network using a model technique selection tool, developed as part of this research, allowed the causal network to be simplified through the replacement of groups of elements within the network by appropriate supporting models. The Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was identified as a suitable method to represent SoS risk. Supporting models run in Monte Carlo Simulations allowed data to be generated from which the risk BBNs could learn, thereby providing a more quantitative approach to SoS risk management. A method was developed which provided context to the BBN risk output through comparison with worst and best-case risk probabilities. The model based approach to Risk Management was applied to two very different case studies: Close Air Support mission planning and the Wheat Supply Chain, UK National Food Security risks, demonstrating its effectiveness and adaptability. The research established that the SoS SoI is essential for effective SoS risk identification and analysis of risk transfer, effective SoS modelling requires a range of techniques where suitability is determined by the problem context, the responsibility for SoS Risk Management is related to the overall SoS classification and the model based approach to SoS risk management was effective for both application case studies

ARCHITECTURE FOR A CBM+ AND PHM CENTRIC DIGITAL TWIN FOR WARFARE SYSTEMS

The Department of the Navy’s continued progression from time-based maintenance into condition-based maintenance plus (CBM+) shows the importance of increasing operational availability (Ao) across fleet weapon systems. This capstone uses the concept of digital efficiency from a digital twin (DT) combined with a three-dimensional (3D) direct metal laser melting printer as the physical host on board a surface vessel. The DT provides an agnostic conduit for combining model-based systems engineering with a digital analysis for real-time prognostic health monitoring while improving predictive maintenance. With the DT at the forefront of prioritized research and development, the 3D printer combines the value of additive manufacturing with complex systems in dynamic shipboard environments. To demonstrate that the DT possesses parallel abilities for improving both the physical host’s Ao and end-goal mission, this capstone develops a DT architecture and a high-level model. The model focuses on specific printer components (deionized [DI] water level, DI water conductivity, air filters, and laser motor drive system) to demonstrate the DT’s inherent effectiveness towards CBM+. To embody the system of systems analysis for printer suitability and performance, more components should be evaluated and combined with the ship’s environment data. Additionally, this capstone recommends the use of DTs as a nexus into more complex weapon systems while using a deeper level of design of experiment.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the NavyCommander, United States NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

COUNTER-UXS ENERGY AND OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS

At present, there exists a prioritization of identifying novel and innovative approaches to managing the small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) threat. The near-future sUAS threat to U.S. forces and infrastructure indicates that current Counter-UAS (C-UAS) capabilities and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) need to evolve to pace the threat. An alternative approach utilizes a networked squadron of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed for sUAS threat interdiction. This approach leverages high performance and Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) conformance to create less expensive, but more capable, C-UAS devices to augment existing capabilities. This capstone report documents efforts to develop C-UAS technologies to reduce energy consumption and collaterally disruptive signal footprint while maintaining operational effectiveness. This project utilized Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) techniques to explore and assess these technologies within a mission context. A Concept of Operations was developed to provide the C-UAS Operational Concept. Operational analysis led to development of operational scenarios to define the System of Systems (SoS) concept, operating conditions, and required system capabilities. Resource architecture was developed to define the functional behaviors and system performance characteristics for C-UAS technologies. Lastly, a modeling and simulation (M&S) tool was developed to evaluate mission scenarios for C-UAS.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

MH-60 Seahawk / MQ-8 Fire Scout interoperability

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedAs part of a Naval Postgraduate School's capstone project in Systems Engineering, a project team from Cohort 311-0911 performed a Systems Engineering analysis. This Project focused on defining alternatives for enhanced Anti-Surface Warfare (ASUW) mission effectiveness through increased interoperability and integration for the Fire Scout Unmanned Air Vehicle and Seahawk helicopter. Specifically, the Project explored the available trade space for enhancing communications back to the ship for analysis and decision-making. Modeling and Simulation (MandS) was used to assess the impact of enhanced communication on specific Key performance Parameters (KPPs) and Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) associated with the ASUW mission. Once the trade space was defined, alternatives were analyzed and a recommendation provided that supports near-, mid-, and long-term mission enhancement

Maritime threat response

This report was prepared by Systems Engineering and Analysis Cohort Nine (SEA-9) Maritime Threat Response, (MTR) team members.Background: The 2006 Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Cross-Campus Integrated Study, titled “Maritime Threat Response” involved the combined effort of 7 NPS Systems Engineering students, 7 Singaporean Temasek Defense Systems Institute (TDSI) students, 12 students from the Total Ship Systems Engineering (TSSE) curriculum, and numerous NPS faculty members from different NPS departments. After receiving tasking provided by the Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering at NPS in support of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense, the study examined ways to validate intelligence and respond to maritime terrorist attacks against United States coastal harbors and ports. Through assessment of likely harbors and waterways to base the study upon, the San Francisco Bay was selected as a representative test-bed for the integrated study. The NPS Systems Engineering and Analysis Cohort 9 (SEA-9) Maritime Threat Response (MTR) team, in conjunction with the TDSI students, used the Systems Engineering Lifecycle Process (SELP) [shown in Figure ES-1, p. xxiii ] as a systems engineering framework to conduct the multi-disciplinary study. While not actually fabricating any hardware, such a process was well-suited for tailoring to the team’s research efforts and project focus. The SELP was an iterative process used to bound and scope the MTR problem, determine needs, requirements, functions, and to design architecture alternatives to satisfy stakeholder needs and desires. The SoS approach taken [shown in Figure ES-2, p. xxiv ]enabled the team to apply a systematic approach to problem definition, needs analysis, requirements, analysis, functional analysis, and then architecture development and assessment.In the twenty-first century, the threat of asymmetric warfare in the form of terrorism is one of the most likely direct threats to the United States homeland. It has been recognized that perhaps the key element in protecting the continental United States from terrorist threats is obtaining intelligence of impending attacks in advance. Enormous amounts of resources are currently allocated to obtaining and parsing such intelligence. However, it remains a difficult problem to deal with such attacks once intelligence is obtained. In this context, the Maritime Threat Response Project has applied Systems Engineering processes to propose different cost-effective System of Systems (SoS) architecture solutions to surface-based terrorist threats emanating from the maritime domain. The project applied a five-year time horizon to provide near-term solutions to the prospective decision makers and take maximum advantage of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions and emphasize new Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) for existing systems. Results provided insight into requirements for interagency interactions in support of Maritime Security and demonstrated the criticality of timely and accurate intelligence in support of counterterror operations.This report was prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland DefenseApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF THE USMC FUTURE VERTICAL LIFT (FVL) LIVING LAB

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) is developing the Future Vertical Lift (FVL) system that will rely heavily on Marine-machine teaming, a complex process that requires further development. The development of a living lab (LL)—a multi-function network of simulators that will serve as the platform for testing, experimenting, and training new technologies and ideas for how the FVL will operate—will help mitigate Marine-machine collaboration and trust issues. This capstone studies the options and requirements for developing a LL through interviews, research that focuses on existing technologies and operational concepts, and Model-Based Systems Engineering tools using a systems engineering approach. The report includes a detailed needs and requirements analysis, stakeholder analysis, and functional design. The team presents a conceptual design, that includes the system architecture, comprising of system, function and physical views, system lifecycle, and the evaluation criteria for a LL. The final product is a set of use cases and concepts of operation. The USMC needs a new approach that supports rapid and relevant upgrades that optimizes the system lifecycle and keeps the Marine in mind. This team recommends the USMC consider these findings and continue researching and developing a LL.ONR Arlington, VA 22203Civilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Model checking embedded system designs

We survey the basic principles behind the application of model checking to controller verification and synthesis. A promising development is the area of guided model checking, in which the state space search strategy of the model checking algorithm can be influenced to visit more interesting sets of states first. In particular, we discuss how model checking can be combined with heuristic cost functions to guide search strategies. Finally, we list a number of current research developments, especially in the area of reachability analysis for optimal control and related issues

Adding Executable Context to Executable Architectures: Enabling an Executable Context Simulation Framework (ECSF)

A system that does not stand alone is represented by a complex entity of component combinations that interact with each other to execute a function. In today\u27s interconnected world, systems integrate with other systems - called a system-of-systems infrastructure: a network of interrelated systems that can often exhibit both predictable and unpredictable behavior. The current state-of-the-art evaluation process of these system-of-systems and their community of practitioners in the academic community are limited to static methods focused on defining who is doing what and where. However, to answer the questions of why and how a system operates within complex systems-of-systems interrelationships, a system\u27s architecture and context must be observed over time, its executable architecture, to discern effective predictable and unpredictable behavior. The objective of this research is to determine a method for evaluating a system\u27s executable architecture and assess the contribution and efficiency of the specified system before it is built. This research led to the development of concrete steps that synthesize the observance of the executable architecture, assessment recommendations provided by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Code of Best Practice for Command and Control (C2) Assessment, and the metrics for operational efficiency provided by the Military Missions and Means Framework. Based on the research herein, this synthesis is designed to evaluate and assess system-of-systems architectures in their operational context to provide quantitative results