Learning stable and predictive structures in kinetic systems: Benefits of a causal approach

Learning kinetic systems from data is one of the core challenges in many fields. Identifying stable models is essential for the generalization capabilities of data-driven inference. We introduce a computationally efficient framework, called CausalKinetiX, that identifies structure from discrete time, noisy observations, generated from heterogeneous experiments. The algorithm assumes the existence of an underlying, invariant kinetic model, a key criterion for reproducible research. Results on both simulated and real-world examples suggest that learning the structure of kinetic systems benefits from a causal perspective. The identified variables and models allow for a concise description of the dynamics across multiple experimental settings and can be used for prediction in unseen experiments. We observe significant improvements compared to well established approaches focusing solely on predictive performance, especially for out-of-sample generalization

Beyond Structural Causal Models: Causal Constraints Models

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) provide a popular causal modeling framework. In this work, we show that SCMs are not flexible enough to give a complete causal representation of dynamical systems at equilibrium. Instead, we propose a generalization of the notion of an SCM, that we call Causal Constraints Model (CCM), and prove that CCMs do capture the causal semantics of such systems. We show how CCMs can be constructed from differential equations and initial conditions and we illustrate our ideas further on a simple but ubiquitous (bio)chemical reaction. Our framework also allows to model functional laws, such as the ideal gas law, in a sensible and intuitive way.Comment: Published in Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-19

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems

Imitation learning enables high-fidelity, vision-based learning of policies within rich, photorealistic environments. However, such techniques often rely on traditional discrete-time neural models and face difficulties in generalizing to domain shifts by failing to account for the causal relationships between the agent and the environment. In this paper, we propose a theoretical and experimental framework for learning causal representations using continuous-time neural networks, specifically over their discrete-time counterparts. We evaluate our method in the context of visual-control learning of drones over a series of complex tasks, ranging from short- and long-term navigation, to chasing static and dynamic objects through photorealistic environments. Our results demonstrate that causal continuous-time deep models can perform robust navigation tasks, where advanced recurrent models fail. These models learn complex causal control representations directly from raw visual inputs and scale to solve a variety of tasks using imitation learning

Mathematical and Statistical Modeling in Cancer Systems Biology

Cancer is a major health problem with high mortality rates. In the post-genome era, investigators have access to massive amounts of rapidly accumulating high-throughput data in publicly available databases, some of which are exclusively devoted to housing Cancer data. However, data interpretation efforts have not kept pace with data collection, and gained knowledge is not necessarily translating into better diagnoses and treatments. A fundamental problem is to integrate and interpret data to further our understanding in Cancer Systems Biology. Viewing cancer as a network provides insights into the complex mechanisms underlying the disease. Mathematical and statistical models provide an avenue for cancer network modeling. In this article, we review two widely used modeling paradigms: deterministic metabolic models and statistical graphical models. The strength of these approaches lies in their flexibility and predictive power. Once a model has been validated, it can be used to make predictions and generate hypotheses. We describe a number of diverse applications to Cancer Biology, including, the system-wide effects of drug-treatments, disease prognosis, tumor classification, forecasting treatment outcomes, and survival predictions