A new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time with essential forcing of variation exponent

We introduce a new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time in the framework of the game-theoretic probability established by Shafer and Vovk (Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (2001) Wiley). In our formulation, the market moves continuously, but an investor trades in discrete times, which can depend on the past path of the market. We prove that an investor can essentially force that the asset price path behaves with the variation exponent exactly equal to two. Our proof is based on embedding high-frequency discrete-time games into the continuous-time game and the use of the Bayesian strategy of Kumon, Takemura and Takeuchi (Stoch. Anal. Appl. 26 (2008) 1161--1180) for discrete-time coin-tossing games. We also show that the main growth part of the investor's capital processes is clearly described by the information quantities, which are derived from the Kullback--Leibler information with respect to the empirical fluctuation of the asset price.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/08-BEJ188 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Avoiding the Curse of Dimensionality in Dynamic Stochastic Games

Discrete-time stochastic games with a finite number of states have been widely ap- plied to study the strategic interactions among forward-looking players in dynamic en- vironments. However, these games suffer from a "curse of dimensionality" since the cost of computing players' expectations over all possible future states increases exponentially in the number of state variables. We explore the alternative of continuous-time stochas- tic games with a finite number of states, and show that continuous time has substantial computational and conceptual advantages. Most important, continuous time avoids the curse of dimensionality, thereby speeding up the computations by orders of magnitude in games with more than a few state variables. Overall, the continuous-time approach opens the way to analyze more complex and realistic stochastic games than currently feasible.

Advances in Zero-Sum Dynamic Games

International audienceThe survey presents recent results in the theory of two-person zero-sum repeated games and their connections with differential and continuous-time games. The emphasis is made on the following(1) A general model allows to deal simultaneously with stochastic and informational aspects.(2) All evaluations of the stage payoffs can be covered in the same framework (and not only the usual Cesàro and Abel means).(3) The model in discrete time can be seen and analyzed as a discretization of a continuous time game. Moreover, tools and ideas from repeated games are very fruitful for continuous time games and vice versa.(4) Numerous important conjectures have been answered (some in the negative).(5) New tools and original models have been proposed. As a consequence, the field (discrete versus continuous time, stochastic versus incomplete information models) has a much more unified structure, and research is extremely active

On Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring: From Discrete to Continuous Time

Staudigl M, Steg J-H. On Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring: From Discrete to Continuous Time. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers. Vol 525. Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics; 2014.Motivated by recent path-breaking contributions in the theory of repeated games in continuous time, this paper presents a family of discrete-time games which provides a consistent discrete-time approximation of the continuous-time limit game. Using probabilistic arguments, we prove that continuous-time games can be defined as the limit of a sequence of discrete-time games. Our convergence analysis reveals various intricacies of continuous-time games. First, we demonstrate the importance of correlated strategies in continuous-time. Second, we attach a precise meaning to the statement that a sequence of discrete-time games can be used to approximate a continuous-time game

Learning to Reach Agreement in a Continuous Ultimatum Game

It is well-known that acting in an individually rational manner, according to the principles of classical game theory, may lead to sub-optimal solutions in a class of problems named social dilemmas. In contrast, humans generally do not have much difficulty with social dilemmas, as they are able to balance personal benefit and group benefit. As agents in multi-agent systems are regularly confronted with social dilemmas, for instance in tasks such as resource allocation, these agents may benefit from the inclusion of mechanisms thought to facilitate human fairness. Although many of such mechanisms have already been implemented in a multi-agent systems context, their application is usually limited to rather abstract social dilemmas with a discrete set of available strategies (usually two). Given that many real-world examples of social dilemmas are actually continuous in nature, we extend this previous work to more general dilemmas, in which agents operate in a continuous strategy space. The social dilemma under study here is the well-known Ultimatum Game, in which an optimal solution is achieved if agents agree on a common strategy. We investigate whether a scale-free interaction network facilitates agents to reach agreement, especially in the presence of fixed-strategy agents that represent a desired (e.g. human) outcome. Moreover, we study the influence of rewiring in the interaction network. The agents are equipped with continuous-action learning automata and play a large number of random pairwise games in order to establish a common strategy. From our experiments, we may conclude that results obtained in discrete-strategy games can be generalized to continuous-strategy games to a certain extent: a scale-free interaction network structure allows agents to achieve agreement on a common strategy, and rewiring in the interaction network greatly enhances the agents ability to reach agreement. However, it also becomes clear that some alternative mechanisms, such as reputation and volunteering, have many subtleties involved and do not have convincing beneficial effects in the continuous case

Computing Threshold Budgets in Discrete-Bidding Games

In a two-player zero-sum graph game, the players move a token throughout the graph to produce an infinite play, which determines the winner of the game. Bidding games are graph games in which in each turn, an auction (bidding) determines which player moves the token: the players have budgets, and in each turn, both players simultaneously submit bids that do not exceed their available budgets, the higher bidder moves the token, and pays the bid to the lower bidder. We distinguish between continuous- and discrete-bidding games. In the latter, the granularity of the players\u27 bids is restricted, e.g., bids must be given in cents. Continuous-bidding games are well understood, however, from a practical standpoint, discrete-bidding games are more appealing. In this paper we focus on discrete-bidding games. We study the problem of finding threshold budgets; namely, a necessary and sufficient initial budget for winning the game. Previously, the properties of threshold budgets were only studied for reachability games. For parity discrete-bidding games, thresholds were known to exist, but their structure was not understood. We describe two algorithms for finding threshold budgets in parity discrete-bidding games. The first algorithm is a fixed-point algorithm, and it reveals the structure of the threshold budgets in these games. Second, we show that the problem of finding threshold budgets is in NP and coNP for parity discrete-bidding games. Previously, only exponential-time algorithms where known for reachability and parity objectives. A corollary of this proof is a construction of strategies that use polynomial-size memory