115,843 research outputs found

    Equity market volatility and expected risk premium

    Get PDF
    This paper revisits the time-series relation between the conditional risk premium and variance of the equity market portfolio. The main innovation is that we construct a measure of the ex ante equity market risk premium using corporate bond yield spread data. This measure is forward-looking and does not rely critically on either realized equity returns or instrumental variables. We find strong support for a positive risk-return tradeoff, and this result is not sensitive to a number of robustness checks, including alternative proxies of the conditional stock variance and controls for hedging demands.Stock exchanges ; Securities

    The Dynamics of Credit Spreads in Hotel Mortgages and Signaling Implications

    Get PDF
    We use a vector autoregression framework to investigate loan pricing in a market with short-term leases (hotels) relative to longer-term leases (office properties), studying how news on the economy and capital markets are incorporated into the relative pricing of risk. We examine the impact of economic variables on the incremental risk premium and establish its informational content. Relative loan prices reflect systematic risk: an improvement in the general economy, an increase in forward looking corporate profitability, an increase in capital availability, and an increase in industry demand forecast a decline in the risk premium differential. We then examine how loan pricing adjusts to expected delinquencies. The spreads themselves contain important economic information and can help forecast delinquencies. Lenders are forward-looking in the pricing of risk and appear to set interest rates in anticipation of future delinquencies

    Forward Looking Estimates of the Market Risk Premium

    Get PDF
    Associate Professor Martin Lally presented Forward Looking Estimates of the Market Risk Premium at the half-day Regulatory Cost of Capital II: What is the Market Risk Premium? Copies of Martins underlying papers on the topics can be obtained by contacting him at [email protected]

    Forward Looking Estimates of the Market Risk Premium

    Get PDF
    Associate Professor Martin Lally presented Forward Looking Estimates of the Market Risk Premium at the half-day Regulatory Cost of Capital II: What is the Market Risk Premium? Copies of Martins underlying papers on the topics can be obtained by contacting him at [email protected]

    Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: a regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps

    Get PDF
    This study investigates the dynamics of the sovereign CDS term premium, i.e. difference between 10Y and 5Y CDS spreads. It can be regarded a forward-looking measure of idiosyncratic sovereign default risk as perceived by financial markets. For some European countries this premium featured distinct nonstationary and heteroskedastic pattern during the last years. Using a Markov-switching unobserved component model, we decompose the daily CDS term premium of five European countries into two unobserved components of statistically different nature and link them in a vector autoregression to various daily observed financial market variables. We find that such decomposition is vital for understanding the short-term dynamics of this premium. The strongest impacts can be attributed to CDS market liquidity, local stock returns, and overall risk aversion. By contrast, the impact of shocks from the sovereign bond market is rather muted. Therefore, the CDS market microstructure effect and investor sentiment play the main roles in sovereign risk evaluation in real time. Moreover, we also find that the CDS term premium response to shocks is regime-dependent and can be ten times stronger during periods of high volatility

    Pricing climate change exposure

    Full text link
    We estimate the risk premium for firm-level climate change exposure among S&P 500 stocks and its time-series evolution between 2005 to 2020. Exposure reflects the attention paid by market participants in earnings calls to a firm’s climate-related risks and opportunities. When extracted from realized returns, the unconditional risk premium is insignificant but exhibits a period with a positive risk premium before the financial crisis and a steady increase thereafter. Forward-looking expected return proxies deliver an unconditionally positive risk premium with maximum values of 0.5%–1% p.a., depending on the proxy, between 2011 and 2014. The risk premium has been lower since 2015, especially when the expected return proxy explicitly accounts for the higher opportunities and lower crash risks that characterize high-exposure stocks. This finding arises as the priced part of the risk premium primarily originates from uncertainty about climate-related upside opportunities. In the time series, the risk premium is negatively associated with green innovation; Big Three holdings; and environmental, social, and governance fund flows and positively associated with climate change adaptation programs

    Hurricane Insurance in Florida

    Get PDF
    This paper studies the evolution of hurricane insurance in Florida over the last decades. Hurricanes (and other natural catastrophes) are typically referred to as “uninsurable” risks. The more exposed property owners find it difficult to obtain insurance cover from the private market and/or can do so only at premiums that substantially exceed their expected claims costs. The state of Florida has reacted to the incapacity of the private sector to insure hurricane risks at reasonable premium levels with the creation of Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (an insurer of last resort) and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Their existence has resulted in substantial premium reductions for the Florida property owners. Both institutions have the possibility of spreading the costs of a major hurricane over a (very) large number of policy holders through after the event compulsory assessments. The risk borne by each individual property owner is thus reasonably small, with substantial benefits for consumers as a group. Looking forward the challenge to the policy maker will be to fine-tune the operation (premium structure) of these two institutions so as to increase their political acceptance. To this end it will be necessary to limit the implicit subsidy of the “bad risks” through the “good risks”.hurricane, catastrophe insurance, regulation, market failure, Florida

    Hurricane Insurance in Florida

    Get PDF
    This paper studies the evolution of hurricane insurance in Florida over the last decades. Hurricanes (and other natural catastrophes) are typically referred to as “uninsurable” risks. The more exposed property owners find it difficult to obtain insurance cover from the private market and/or can do so only at premiums that substantially exceed their expected claims costs. The state of Florida has reacted to the incapacity of the private sector to insure hurricane risks at reasonable premium levels with the creation of Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (an insurer of last resort) and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Their existence has resulted in substantial premium reductions for the Florida property owners. Both institutions have the possibility of spreading the costs of a major hurricane over a (very) large number of policy holders through after the event compulsory assessments. The risk borne by each individual property owner is thus reasonably small, with substantial benefits for consumers as a group. Looking forward the challenge to the policy maker will be to fine-tune the operation (premium structure) of these two institutions so as to increase their political acceptance. To this end it will be necessary to limit the implicit subsidy of the “bad risks” through the “good risks”.Hurricane, Catastrophe Insurance, Regulation, Market Failure, Florida

    Hurricane Insurance in Florida

    Get PDF
    This paper studies the evolution of hurricane insurance in Florida over the last decades. Hurricanes (and other natural catastrophes) are typically referred to as "uninsurable" risks. The more exposed property owners find it difficult to obtain insurance cover from the private market and/or can do so only at premiums that substantially exceeds their expected claims costs. The state of Florida has reacted to the incapacity of the private sector to insure hurricane risks at reasonable premium levels with the creation of Citizens (an insurer of last resort) and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Their existence has resulted in substantial premium reductions for the Florida property owners. Both institutions have the possibility of spreading the costs of a major hurricane over a (very) large number of policy holders through after the event compulsory assessments. The risk borne by each individual property owner is thus reasonably small. The benefits for consumers as a group have thus been substantial. Looking forward the challenge to the policy maker will be to fine-tune the operation (premium structure) of these two institutions so as to increase their political acceptance. To this end it will be necessary to limit the implicit subsidy of the "bad risks" through the "good risks".hurricane; catastrophe insurance; regulation; market failure; Florida

    Stock Price Dynamics and Option Valuations under Volatility Feedback Effect

    Get PDF
    According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures, 2 table
    • …
    corecore