32,785 research outputs found

    Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy

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    This third report from The Iran Project, considers the successes, shortfalls, and risks of strategies designed to pressure the Iranian government into changing its policies. It explores some of the advantages and disadvantages for U.S. interests in the Middle East that might flow from bilateral negotiations with Iran to achieve a nuclear deal, and propose steps that the President might take to establish a framework for direct talks with Iran's leadership that would build on the latest round of multilateral negotiations and proposals. Iran's actions -- particularly with regard to its nuclear program -- pose complex and dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security, as well as to the security of Israel and possibly to stability in the Middle East. This paper sets out a response to these serious challenges. A strengthened U.S. diplomatic initiative would not replace the pressure track; rather, it would build on pressure already applied. Some measure of sanctions relief will have to be offered as part of a negotiated settlement; but pressure should not be eased without firm and verifiable Iranian commitments to greater transparency and agreed limits on Iran's nuclear program. The proposed bilateral discussions between the U.S. and Iran would not replace the multilateral negotiations that are now underway. Bilateral talks would have to proceed on a basis understood and ideally supported by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany) and U.S. allies. This paper differs from earlier Iran Project publications in that it takes policy positions and makes recommendations for government action. The authors have sought to base these suggestions on factual, objective, nonpartisan analyses, consulting with nearly 20 former government officials and experts and seeking advice from a larger group of signatories

    The future of jihad: what next for ISIL and al-Qaeda?

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    This report examines what the rise of ISIL means for al-Qaeda and how will it react. Overview ISIL is a real threat and must be targeted, but al-Qaeda shouldn’t be forgotten. Indeed, al-Qaeda should remain a key focus for international counterterrorism efforts. It’s a resilient and resolute terrorist organisation, but it’s also weaker than it’s been for many years. We should use this brief opportunity to dismantle the organisation completely. The report examines what the rise of ISIL means for al-Qaeda and how will it react. How will al-Qaeda seek to regain the oxygen of publicity that’s central to terrorist organisations if they’re to recruit, grow and, ultimately, challenge their enemies? Does the rise of ISIL signal the end of al-Qaeda or might al-Qaeda merge with ISIL, confront it head on or take some other course of action? The authors explore four alternative futures for al-Qaeda and ISIL and conclude that a worrying scenario of ‘one-upmanship’ is likely to take place between the two organisations in which al-Qaeda pursues a campaign of international attacks in order to regain the limelight

    The President and Nuclear Weapons: Authorities, Limits, and Process

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    There is no more consequential decision for a president than ordering a nuclear strike. In the Cold War, the threat of sudden nuclear annihilation necessitated procedures emphasizing speed and efficiency and placing sole decision-making authority in the president’s hands. In today’s changed threat environment, the legal authorities and process a U.S. president would confront when making this grave decision merit reexamination. This paper serves as a resource in the national discussion about a president’s legal authority and the procedures for ordering a nuclear strike, and whether to update them

    EU Democracy Promotion in the Mediterranean - Cooperation against All Odds?

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    Focusing on the Euro-Mediterranean relations since the early 1990s, this paper investigates in how far the EU has been able to shape its relations with third countries according to its democracy promotion policy. The paper traces the evolution of the EU’s provisions for democracy promotion and compares the implementation of political dialogue and democracy assistance with seven (semi-)authoritarian regimes (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia) since the early 1990s. A clear regional trend to more intensive cooperation lends credibility to the claim that the EU possesses a certain agenda setting power in international relations. A systematic comparison across countries and over time explores the explanatory power of interdependence, political liberalisation, and statehood for the remaining country variation. The paper finds that the degree of political liberalisation in target countries is the most important scope condition for cooperation in the field of democracy promotion and points to the need of further investigating (domestic) factors to account for the EU’s differential ‘normative power’ in international relations.closer cooperation; closer cooperation; democracy; Mediterranean; Europeanization; Europeanization

    The End of Law: The ISIL Case Study for a Comprehensive Theory of Lawlessness

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    This Article has five parts. Part I sets out and adopts the basic premises of the jurisprudential perspective championed by Professor Reisman and sketches his argument that legal solutions can always be fashioned in a meaningful and realistic manner. Part II discusses the development of ISIL in the Middle East. Part III analyzes the lawlessness problem created by ISIL for the affected local communities and explains how loss of control, left unattended, transforms into a loss of authority of prescription by destroying the social fabric needed for legal processes to have meaning. Part IV develops how municipal lawlessness has a contagion effect on the international plane through what this Article calls the transnational transference of lawlessness by comparing international legal reactions to ISIL’s putative establishment of a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Part V sketches how the contagion effect can be stopped by means of the diagnostic tools developed in Parts III and IV. The Article demonstrates that both public debate and scholarly engagement so far have focused on the wrong question: whether or how to use force to wrest control of territory from ISIL. Given the progression of lawlessness from loss of control to loss of authority mapped in Part III of the Article, this incorrect focus is understandable. But to be effective, the debate instead must focus directly on how authoritative decision-making processes can be rekindled and protected in Syria, Iraq, and beyond. These structures were degraded not just by ISIL, which may well be a symptom of failing authority structures rather than its proximate cause; in fact, these structures were sabotaged by Western and Ottoman colonial powers long before ISIL sought its opportunity on Arabian soil. Perhaps counter-intuitively, use of force that does not also address and re-strengthen the social fabric in the region could well be worse long-term than no use of force at all. Given the human toll in the region—and the role as other than an innocent bystander of Western powers—the normative end of law should inspire us towards more effective—and more authoritative—forms of intervention

    The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt

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    Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last forty years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper presents such a study, estimating an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net imports effects. The main strategic effect is the impact of Israel’s military burden, with no effect for that of the Jordanian and Syrian allies, but the results also suggest that simple arms race relationships are not an adequate representation of the relevant strategic factors.Egypt, demand for military expenditure, political determinants, strategic determinants

    Trends in a tumultuous region: Middle East after the Arab Awakening

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    Two years after the start of the Arab uprisings, the Middle East remains as tumultuous as ever. Despite the uncertainty and flux, a number of emerging trends will influence the region in the post-revolutionary period and well into the future.The first trend is a marked uptick in sectarianism and sectarian violence. The second trend is a crisis within political Islam and a widening rift between secular and Islamist political forces. And the third trend is the gradual disengagement and declining influence of the US in the Middle East. This paper, by Lydia Khalil, looks at the road to revolution, the polarised politics of Islamists vs secularists, and sectarianism’s grip in the region. The events in Egypt and Syria illustrate the difficulties faced by policymakers around the world—options for intervention are limited. However, the international community continues to look for ways to encourage stability. Australia\u27s role is considered including its role on the United Nations Security Council, particularly when it comes to the Syrian crisis and dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Australia should do what it can to assist this desperate humanitarian situation and bolster the norm against chemical weapons use. It’s important to do so, not only as a reflection of Australian values, but also because Australia’s actions and involvements on the international stage in relation to Syria will also have an impact at home

    Empowering the Democratic Resistance in Syria

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    When the peaceful uprising in Syria started in spring 2011 turned into an armed resistance after a few months in the face of savage repression by the Assad regime. Since then, the activists who picked up arms became dependent on support in money and arms to be able to continue. Few other than the Assad regime question this narrative. Yet the consequences of this dependence are often overlooked. The sources of funding for the rebels and the strings attached to them have since shaped the landscape of the armed rebellion, not the other way round. What we have in Syria is not an Islamist revolution but a popular uprising that received funding primarily from Islamist sources. Acknowledging this is essential and has far-reaching implications for defining an effective policy in the Syrian conflict. As the United States, France and regional powers of the Middle East prepare for what appears to be an inevitable military strike on the Syrian regime of Bashar el Assad, questions are posed more urgently than ever: how to work with the armed opposition? who are the reliable forces? what are their capabilities? which groups can be part of the plan to replace Assad and how can the extremists be contained?This paper examines the circumstances and conditions that shaped the Syrian armed opposition and surveys the groups that remain committed to a democratic political system and a pluralistic society in Syria

    Another century, another long war

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    This report argues that Australia is involved in the early stages of a conflict that may last for the rest of the century. It considers possible solutions, approaches that could be used, and what Australia should do. Overview Australia is involved in the early stages of a conflict that may last for the rest of the century and potentially beyond. Terrorism is but a symptom of a broader conflict in which the fundamental threat is from radical Islamists who are intent on establishing Islam as the foundation of a new world order. While the violence, so far, is mostly confined to Islamic lands, some of the radicals are engaged in a direct war against Western secular nations. The home-grown threat from terror remains and is likely to worsen as radicals return from fighting overseas and the internet dumps unconstrained radical propaganda across the globe. If the caliphate in Iraq and Syria established by the Islamic State survives, it will be a worrying portent of worse to come. The paper looks at the three fronts of this conflict: the oldest and largest front, within Islam, is where Sunni Muslims are fighting Shia Muslims; the second front, again within Islam, is a modern political battle in which radical Islamists are intent on overthrowing existing governments and replacing them with new ones based on sharia law; and the third is the more recent conflict between (usually) Western states and smaller groups of radical Islamists who are motivated by a hatred of the West. It considers possible solutions, approaches that could be used, and more specifically what Australia should do
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