Building safe software

Murphy is a set of techniques and tools under investigation for their potential in enhancing the safety of software. This paper describes some of the work which has been done and some which is planned

Empirical bayes estimates of development reliability for one shot devices

This article describes a method for estimating the reliability of a system under development that is an evolution of previous designs. We present an approach to making effective use of heritage data from similar operational systems to estimate reliability of a design that is yet to realise any data. The approach also has a mechanism to adjust initial estimates in the light of sparse data that becomes available in early stages of test. While the estimation approach, known as empirical Bayes is generic, we focus on one shot devices as this was the type of system which provided the practical motivation for this work and for which we illustrate an application

Automatic Generation of Minimal Cut Sets

A cut set is a collection of component failure modes that could lead to a system failure. Cut Set Analysis (CSA) is applied to critical systems to identify and rank system vulnerabilities at design time. Model checking tools have been used to automate the generation of minimal cut sets but are generally based on checking reachability of system failure states. This paper describes a new approach to CSA using a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checker called BT Analyser that supports the generation of multiple counterexamples. The approach enables a broader class of system failures to be analysed, by generalising from failure state formulae to failure behaviours expressed in LTL. The traditional approach to CSA using model checking requires the model or system failure to be modified, usually by hand, to eliminate already-discovered cut sets, and the model checker to be rerun, at each step. By contrast, the new approach works incrementally and fully automatically, thereby removing the tedious and error-prone manual process and resulting in significantly reduced computation time. This in turn enables larger models to be checked. Two different strategies for using BT Analyser for CSA are presented. There is generally no single best strategy for model checking: their relative efficiency depends on the model and property being analysed. Comparative results are given for the A320 hydraulics case study in the Behavior Tree modelling language.Comment: In Proceedings ESSS 2015, arXiv:1506.0325

Continuous Improvement Through Knowledge-Guided Analysis in Experience Feedback

Continuous improvement in industrial processes is increasingly a key element of competitiveness for industrial systems. The management of experience feedback in this framework is designed to build, analyze and facilitate the knowledge sharing among problem solving practitioners of an organization in order to improve processes and products achievement. During Problem Solving Processes, the intellectual investment of experts is often considerable and the opportunities for expert knowledge exploitation are numerous: decision making, problem solving under uncertainty, and expert configuration. In this paper, our contribution relates to the structuring of a cognitive experience feedback framework, which allows a flexible exploitation of expert knowledge during Problem Solving Processes and a reuse such collected experience. To that purpose, the proposed approach uses the general principles of root cause analysis for identifying the root causes of problems or events, the conceptual graphs formalism for the semantic conceptualization of the domain vocabulary and the Transferable Belief Model for the fusion of information from different sources. The underlying formal reasoning mechanisms (logic-based semantics) in conceptual graphs enable intelligent information retrieval for the effective exploitation of lessons learned from past projects. An example will illustrate the application of the proposed approach of experience feedback processes formalization in the transport industry sector

Elicitation of structured engineering judgement to inform a focussed FMEA

The practical use of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been criticised because it is often implemented too late and in a manner that does not allow information to be fed-back to inform the product design. Lessons learnt from the use of elicitation methods to gather structured expert judgement about engineering concerns for a new product design has led to an enhancement of the approach for implementing design and process FMEA. We refer to this variant as a focussed FMEA since the goal is to enable relevant engineers to contribute to the analysis and to act upon the outcomes in such a way that all activities focus upon the design needs. The paper begins with a review of the proposed process to identify and quantify engineering concerns. The pros and cons of using elicitation methods, originally designed to support construction of a Bayesian prior, to inform a focussed FMEA are analysed and a comparison of the proposed process in relation to the existing standards is made. An industrial example is presented to illustrate customisation of the process and discuss the impact on the design process

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version