Forest Fires Prediction by an Organization Based System

In this study, a new organization based system for forest fires prediction is presented. It is an Organization Based System for Forest Fires Forecasting (OBSFFF). The core of the system is based on the Case-Based Reasoning methodology, and it is able to generate a prediction about the evolution of the forest fires in certain areas. CBR uses historical data to create new solutions to current problems. The system employs a distributed multi-agent architecture so that the main components of the system can be remotely accessed. All the elements building the final system, communicate in a distributed way, from different type of interfaces and devices. OBSFFF has been applied to generate predictions in real forest fire situations, using historical data both to train the system and to check the results. Results have demonstrated that the system accurately predicts the evolution of the fires. It has been demonstrated that using a distributed architecture enhances the overall performance of the system

(OBIFS) isotropic image analysis for improving a predicting agent based systems

In this interdisciplinary study a novel hybrid forecasting system is presented, in which an isotropic buffer operator is applied for case-based creation within the structure of the organization-based multi-agent system. Commonly used as an image analysis technique by commercial Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the buffer operator in this particular system calculates the area of a forest fire for prediction and visualization tasks. The use of the buffer operator improves the quality of the data used by the system and in consequence the quality of the results obtained. The system has been successfully tested using real historical data on forest fires evolution, by generating accurate predictions

Climate and Land Degradation

On the occasion of the Seventh session of the Conference of Parties, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has prepared this brochure which explains the role of different climatic factors in land degradation and WMO's contribution in addressing this important subject. Educational levels: Undergraduate lower division, Undergraduate upper division, Graduate or professional, Informal education, General public

Crisis in Indonesia: Forests, fires and finances

The jewel in the East Asian "economic miracle" of the 1980s and 1990s came crashing to earth during late 1997 with a collapse of the currency and disintegration of the banking system. By mid-1998 Suharto was forced out of office by a tidal wave of street protests, and raging fires were ablaze throughout the land. In this paper we draw attention to the fundamentals of the finance crisis and the environmental crisis as they relate to the state of tropical rainforests in Indonesia. It is concluded that, somewhat ironically, the dramatic collapse of the Indonesian economy and the devastating forest fires of the late 1990s may lead to the preservation of one of the earth's most significant heritage sites, the tropical rainforests and biodiversity of Indonesia

Reducing wildland fire hazard exploiting complex network theory. A case study analysis

We discuss a new systematic methodology to mitigate wildland fire hazard by appropriately distributing fuel breaks in space. In particular, motivated by the concept of information flow in complex networks we create a hierarchical allocation of the landscape patches that facilitate the fire propagation based on the Bonacich centrality. Reducing the fuel load in these critical patches results to lower levels of fire hazard. For illustration purposes we apply the proposed strategy to a real case of wildland fire. In particular we focus on the wildland fire that occurred in Spetses Island, Greece in 1990 and burned the one third of the forest. The efficiency of the proposed strategy is compared against the benchmark of random distribution of fuel breaks for a wide range of fuel breaks densities

Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weather characteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective. An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of two preventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.Forest fires, policy evaluation

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment—A Plan for Integrated, Large Fire–Atmosphere Field Campaigns

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is designed to collect integrated observations from large wildland fires and provide evaluation datasets for new models and operational systems. Wildland fire, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry models have become more sophisticated, and next-generation operational models will require evaluation datasets that are coordinated and comprehensive for their evaluation and advancement. Integrated measurements are required, including ground-based observations of fuels and fire behavior, estimates of fire-emitted heat and emissions fluxes, and observations of near-source micrometeorology, plume properties, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry. To address these requirements the FASMEE campaign design includes a study plan to guide the suite of required measurements in forested sites representative of many prescribed burning programs in the southeastern United States and increasingly common high-intensity fires in the western United States. Here we provide an overview of the proposed experiment and recommendations for key measurements. The FASMEE study provides a template for additional large-scale experimental campaigns to advance fire science and operational fire and smoke models