Courting Catastrophe? Humanitarian Policy and Practice in a Changing Climate

Humanitarian crises appear dramatic, overwhelming and sudden, with aid required immediately to save lives. Whereas climate change is about changing hazard patterns and crises are in reality rarely unexpected, with academic researchers and humanitarian and development organisations warning about possible risks for months before they take place. While humanitarian organisations deal directly with vulnerable populations, interventions are part of global politics and development pathways that are simultaneously generating climate change, inequities and vulnerability. So what is the level of convergence between humanitarian interventions and efforts to support adaptation to climate change, and what lessons can be drawn from current experience on the prospects for reducing the risk of climate change causing increased burdens on humanitarian interventions in the future? This IDS Bulletin is a call for increasing engagement between humanitarian aid and adaptation interventions to support deliberate transformation of development pathways. Based on studies from the ‘Courting Catastrophe’ project, contributors argue that humanitarian interventions offer opportunities for a common agenda to drive transformational adaptation. Changes in political and financial frameworks are needed to facilitate longer-term actions where demands move from delivering expert advice and solutions to vulnerable populations to taking up multiple vulnerability knowledges and making space for contestation of current development thinking. Yet while the humanitarian system could drive transformative adaptation, it should not bear responsibility alone. In this issue, alternative pathways and practical ways to support local alternatives and critical debates around these are illustrated, to demonstrate where humanitarian actions can most usefully contribute to transformation

Is information enough? User responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa

Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Niño events and their impact on climate variability. Advances in the observational and theoretical understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have contributed to improved seasonal forecasts, with lead times of up to one year. As the ability to forecast climate variability improves, the potential social and economic applications of forecasts have become an issue of great interest. There is widespread optimism that the availability and dissemination of climate forecasts can provide much-needed information that will inevitably reduce the losses and damages attributed to climate variability. However, this study indicates that it is not only the availability of information that matters, but also the end-users capacity to act upon it. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines if and how farmers received, used, and perceived the forecasts in the 1997/98 agricultural season. The report also includes a summary of a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa, organized as part of the larger project. The participants in this workshop discussed some of the bottlenecks and constraints in terms of both forecast dissemination and user responses in various branches of the agricultural sector. A comparison of case studies across southern Africa revealed that there were differences in both dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. Nevertheless, it was clear that improvements in forecast dissemination coupled with improved capacity to respond to the forecasts could yield net benefits for agricultural production in southern Africa. Case studies in Namibia and Tanzania were undertaken to capture the extent to which seasonal forecasts reached “end users” in the agricultural sector. The responses indicate both the possibilities and limitations related to climate forecasts as a means of reducing rural vulnerability to climate variability. Interviews were also conducted with national and regional agricultural and food security institutions in Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Institutions included government agencies, farmer organizations, research institutions, and private companies. Participation in two of the three SARCOF meetings held during the 1997/98 season provided insight into forecast development and dissemination, as well as into the emerging dialog between forecasters and users. The surveys revealed two main trends. First, there is a need to expand dissemination. Second, there is a pressing need to improve capacity for using the forecasts. In terms of dissemination, the surveys showed that less than half of the small-scale farmers interviewed actually received the pre-season forecasts, and fewer heard the mid-season updates. Moreover, what forecasts were received were often confused with other reports stemming from the coincidental occurrence of a very strong El Niño phenomenon. One reason so few small-scale farmers received the forecasts is that they have not been directly targeted as end-users. While dissemination efforts have clearly been inadequate, they do not appear to be as consequential as problems related to the capacity of small-scale farmers to respond to the forecasts. Unless farmers have the ability to correctly interpret the forecasts, and the capacity to take action based upon the information, the forecasts will remain underutilized. Constraints to the capacity to respond to climate forecasts lie in economic and social structures, rather than uniquely in a lack of information. Access to credit, seeds, fertilizers, draft power, and markets shapes the ability of farmers to respond to climate information. In the wake of the 1997/98 El Niño event, there is a need to critically reflect upon the potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts. Responses to present-day climate variability form the cornerstone for adapting to future climate changes. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there is clearly a need for improved seasonal forecasts and better information dissemination. Nevertheless, the results of this study caution against a misplaced emphasis on improving the accuracy of forecasts at the expense of increasing the flexibility of farmers to adapt. Instead, the provision of information must be tied to enhanced response or adaptation options. Climate forecasts have the potential to increase food security in southern Africa. However, to realize the full extent of potential benefits, response strategies should be strategically developed alongside dissemination strategies targeted at small-scale farmers. Moreover, this study points to a need to examine how economic changes taking place in southern Africa enhance or constrain this flexibility. Seasonal climate forecasts can serve as more than a tool for emergency management of food aid. Addressing the economic constraints to the use of seasonal climate forecasts could place farmers in a position where they could actually act upon the information. Information alone is not enough, but combined with increased attention to response strategies, seasonal climate forecasts can serve as a valuable tool for farmers in southern Africa.Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the many people who assisted us in this project. We are grateful to Arne Dalfelt of the World Bank for helping us to make this project a reality, and for supporting CICERO’s longer-term research on climate change and variability in Africa. We would also like to thank Mike Harrison, Macol Stewart and the participants in the SARCOF meetings for encouraging and facilitating this research. For the field research in Namibia, we would like to express our thanks to Luis de Pisano, Peter Hutchinson, Kintinu Sageus, Gert van Eeden, Dave Cole, Mary Seely, Chris Morry, Franz Oberprieler, John le Roux, Paul Strydom, Barbara de Bruine, Gert Grobler, Ronnie Bornman, Cobus Franken, Pieter Hugo, and the others who took the time to share their views with us on seasonal climate forecasts and their potential use in Namibia. We would also like to thank Fiina Shimaneni, Otto Kamwi, and colleagues at the Multidisciplinary Research Center at the University of Namibia for their assistance with the field surveys. We are grateful to Sylvi Endresen for helping us to coordinate this field research, and to Jürgen Hoffman for his support, assistance, and enthusiasm for the project. The fieldwork in Tanzania would not have been possible without the assistance and cooperation of colleagues at Sokoine University, including Nganga Kihupi and Winifrida Rwamugira. We are also grateful to Bahari Mumali, James Ngana, Burhani Nyenzi, Mr. Kalinga, Juvenal R.L. Kisanga, S.A. Muro, and F.E. Mahua for their generous time. In Zimbabwe, we would like to thank Leonard Unganai, Brad Garanganga, Eliot Vhurumuku, C.H. Matarira, Stephen Crawford, Saskia van Osterhout, Marufu.C. Zinyowera, Sylvester Tsikisayi, Amos Makarau, Mr. Malusalila, Amus Chitambira, Micael Negusse, Roland Keth, and Veronica Mutikana for taking time to discuss the forecasts and their implications with us. We are grateful to the participants in the Dar es Salaam Workshop on User Responses to Seasonal Forecasts in Southern Africa, for sharing their insights and contributing to a productive exchange of research findings and ideas. In addition to the authors and collaborators mentioned above, participants include Anna Bartman, Roger Blench, Louise Bohn, Tharsis Herea, Amin Bakari Iddi, Maynard Lugenja, Jennifer Phillips, Anne Thomson, and Coleen Vogel. Finally, we would like to thank Lynn Nygård, Bård Romstad, and Tone Veiby for editorial assistance with this report

Repurposing Food Supply Chain Management for Viability During COVID-19: A Systematic Review

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine existing studies on recycled food supply chain management during the COVID-19 epidemic.   Theoretical framework:  The theoretical framework of the study includes research areas, research agendas, and implications for the viability during the crisis.   Design/Methodology/Approach: Mendeley Desktop Software retrieved articles from ScienceDirect.com and Google Scholar. This review included 63 full papers published in 2019–2021.   Findings: This review covers food waste management, food safety, insecurity, crises, wellness, food supply chains and chain management, impact on alternative and local food systems, consumption, evaluation of alternative food provision systems, scaling and food policies, proposed business models, strategies, and mechanisms, logistics, economics, and resilience building. The research agendas include refusing, reducing, reusing, repurposing, recycling, and rescaling abandoned or outmoded goods, and rescaling. Implications include food supply chain management, food network viability, impact evaluation, and nutrition risk management.   Research, practical, and social implications: This study presents research themes and agendas for adaptive management to ensure viability throughout the COVID-19 outbreak and its long-term impacts. It provides insights into food waste management, food safety, security, insecurity, wellness, food supply networks, chain management, etc. Socially, it offers future studies on outbreak viability, food network vitality, effect evaluation, and nutrition risk management.   Originality/Value: In view of the current COVID-19 situation, this study revises food supply chain management. Food supply chain management on a worldwide scale has been impacted by this outbreak. This situation calls for an out-of-the-box solution

Links between Natural Disasters, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Risk Reduction: A Critical Perspective

human development, climate change

State of climate information products and services for agriculture and food security in Myanmar

The increasing variability of seasonal climate and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that are expected to accompany climate change will impact agricultural production and food security in Southeast Asia. The timely provision of climate information is one mechanism to help societies and individuals prepare for and adapt to these changes. This report assesses the state of climate information products and services in Myanmar, including how such services are disseminated and utilized by national actors. It includes recommendations to help meet the climate information needs of the agriculture and food security sector in Myanmar

The Impact of Chronic Underfunding on Americas Public Health System: Trends, Risks, and Recommendations - 2023

Decades of underfunding have left the nation's public health system ill-equipped to protect the health of Americans. The COVID-19 crisis illuminated weaknesses in the nation's public health infrastructure, including antiquated data systems, insufficient public health laboratory capacity, an under-resourced public health workforce, and the need for improved public health communications. These foundational public health capacities require increased, flexible, and sustained funding.The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the primary source of public health funding for state, local, tribal, and territorial health departments, is itself reliant on the annual federal appropriations process. Over the past two decades (FY 2014 – 2023), the CDC's budget has increased by just 6 percent after adjusting for inflation, leading to insufficient funding in key program areas such as emergency preparedness and chronic disease prevention.In addition to the risks associated with health emergencies, the country faces a growing number of people living with chronic diseases and the associated healthcare costs. While evidence-based public health programs that help prevent chronic disease are doing important work, insufficient funding has limited their accessibility and impact in many communities.TFAH is calling for annual funding for CDC of at least $11.581 billion in FY 2024, the level requested in the President's FY 24 budget (FY 2023 CDC funding is$9.2 billion).Other policy recommendations within the report include:Increase and sustain disease-agnostic funding to strengthen public health infrastructure. Public health experts estimate an annual shortfall of $4.5 billion in necessary funding for state and local health departments to provide comprehensive public health services in their communities.Strengthen public health emergency preparedness, including within the healthcare system. Investments should include the restoration of funding to the Public Health Emergency Preparedness Cooperative Agreement, the Healthcare Readiness and Recovery Program, and programs designed to support vaccine infrastructure as well as prevent, detect, and contain antimicrobial-resistant infections.Modernize the public health data system to ensure comprehensive and real-time data sharing during public health emergencies. Public health experts estimate that at least$7.84 billion is needed over the next five years for CDC's Data Modernization Initiative to strengthen public health data collection and reporting at the state and local levels. Congress should also provide sustained funding for CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.Bolster the recruitment and retention of the public health workforce. In 2021, it was estimated that state and local public health departments needed to hire an additional 80,000 employees to be able to deliver a minimum set of public health services. The one-time nature of short-term emergency funding means that health departments will continue to experience understaffing.Address health disparities and the root causes of disease by addressing the social determinants of health and investing in chronic disease prevention.Invest in programs to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of climate change

PICES Press, Vol. 16, No. 1, January 2008

◾PICES Science in 2007 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾FUTURE - A milestone reached but our task is not done (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) ◾International symposium on "Reproductive and Recruitment Processes of Exploited Marine Fish Stocks" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾Recent results of the micronekton sampling inter-calibration experiment (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 PICES workshop on "Measuring and monitoring primary productivity in the North Pacific" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾A global approach for recovery and sustainability of marine resources in Large Marine Ecosystems (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Highlights of the PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾Ocean acidification of the North Pacific Ocean (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Workshop on NE Pacific Coastal Ecosystems (2008 Call for Salmon Survival Forecasts) (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2007 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Election results at PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) ◾A new PICES award for monitoring and data management activities (pdf, < 0.1 Mb