Regional economic modelling: evaluating existing methods and models for constructing an Irish prototype

This paper provides an overview of competing and supplementing methodologies for modelling the regional economic dynamics. The discussion provides a primer on how regional CGE, Econometric, Input-Output and SAM based models work towards capturing the region-specific, interregional and multiregional production, consumption and factor market patterns. An analysis of virtues and limitations of these alternate methodologies suggests that it may be the considerations such as the data collection/compilation, expected output, research objectives and costs involved that may determine the choice of modelling framework. Several existing regional models constructed for other countries and their characteristics are summarized along with the specific discussion on regional economic impact analysis in Ireland and how one could move towards constructing an Irish prototype.Input Output; Social Accounting Matrix; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model;

Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries

This paper selectively reviews various approaches of macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building particularly in the context of Asian countries. Addressing several issues discussed in this paper can improve the use of macroeconometric models (MEM) in forecasting and policy analysis in the foreseeable future. This survey shows that most MEMs in developing countries are either becoming smaller in size or not being subject to a thorough diagnostic investigation. In the specification of models one should consider the interplay among macroeconomic policies of different countries via international trade and global financial markets. It is argued that the Project Link and the Fair multi-country model are two initiatives in the right direction. It also appears that with advancement of econometric "know-how", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.Macroeconometric modelling, Asian Developing Countries

Risk Management of Daily Tourist Tax Revenues for the Maldives

International tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of international tourist arrivals which, in turn, determines the magnitude of tax revenue receipts. A framework is presented for risk management of daily tourist tax revenues for the Maldives, which is a unique SITE because it relies entirely on tourism for its economic and social development. As these receipts from international tourism are significant financial assets to the economies of SITEs, the time-varying volatility of international tourist arrivals and their growth rate is analogous to the volatility (or dynamic risk) in financial returns. In this paper, the volatility in the levels and growth rates of daily international tourist arrivals is investigated.Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs), International tourist arrivals, Tourism tax, Volatility, Risk, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Sustainable Tourism-@-Risk (ST@R)

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.Climate change, Computable general equilibrium models, Tourism

WTO Membership for China and Its Impact on Growth, Investment and Consumption: A New Flexible Keynesian Approach

The November 2001 accession of China to the WTO promises increased investment (already the world’s second in 1998 and third in 1999) particularly from the EU into the country. This investment is crucial to China’s expanding trade with the rest of the world and will contribute significantly to its growth. The paper focuses on this nexus, presents a new and flexible approach to modelling the impact of China’s WTO membership on its investment and growth within the general framework of multi-sectoral economies (Tran Van Hoa, 1992), and applies it to study this anticipated impact using recent World Bank data. Our approach dominates in efficiency the CGE and other neo-classical methods (such as used in GTAP models) in its data-consistent structure. The paper then briefly describes the fundamentals of the new two-stage hierarchical information (2SHI) or empirical Bayes estimation and forecasting theory (Tran Van Hoa, 1985, 1986a, 1993b, Tran Van Hoa and Chaturvedi, 1988, 1990, 1997), summarises its superior MSE properties for forecasts and simulation, and reports substantive empirical findings on China’s investment and growth given its trade enhancement positions. As an illustration of applications of our approach, impact on China’s growth over a 7-year timeframe of a price reduction and increased government spending, assumed as a result of the country’s WTO membership, is also investigated and briefly its policy implications discussed.WTO, China, investment, growth, Keynesian approach, simulation

Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.Greek Military Debt, Defence Expenditure, Neural Networks

Research and Extension Capabilities: Program Economists in New South Wales Agriculture

In 1997 the economists in NSW Agriculture conducting applied economics research at its larger research stations were assigned to the Department's major programs of the Department. This report reviews some of their achievements since that time. The report begins with a section describing the role of Program Economists and their management. Then follows a brief review of the main areas of interest of each of the twelve economists. A large section of the report is devoted to outlining major areas of research and extension where program economists, often working cooperatively, have made a significant contribution. These areas include: Analyses of market conditions for agricultural products; Field crop economics; Grazing and pasture economics; Integrated weed and pest management economics; Farming systems economics; Provision of farm management information; Research and extension evaluation and policy. Aspects reviewed in these areas included the key findings from research, research objectives, future directions of research and for each area, a selection of the most significant publications produced by program economists. The final section of the report is a listing of publications by program economists since 1997. Since then they have written 9 book chapters, 57 refereed journal papers, 23 refereed research bulletins, 40 papers in conference proceedings, 94 invited and contributed conference papers, 56 miscellaneous reports and work papers; and 43 farm management papers.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

ISBIS 2016: Meeting on Statistics in Business and Industry

This Book includes the abstracts of the talks presented at the 2016 International Symposium on Business and Industrial Statistics, held at Barcelona, June 8-10, 2016, hosted at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - Barcelona TECH, by the Department of Statistics and Operations Research. The location of the meeting was at ETSEIB Building (Escola Tecnica Superior d'Enginyeria Industrial) at Avda Diagonal 647. The meeting organizers celebrated the continued success of ISBIS and ENBIS society, and the meeting draw together the international community of statisticians, both academics and industry professionals, who share the goal of making statistics the foundation for decision making in business and related applications. The Scientific Program Committee was constituted by: David Banks, Duke University Amílcar Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Teresa A. Oliveira, DCeT - Universidade Aberta and CEAUL Nalini Ravishankar, University of Connecticut Xavier Tort Martorell, Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, Barcelona TECH Martina Vandebroek, KU Leuven Vincenzo Esposito Vinzi, ESSEC Business Schoo

The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.Epidemics, Life Expectancy, Economic Growth, AIDS