Fixed-to-mobile substitution in the US, EU, and China: Forecasting technology diffusion using the Lotka-Volterra Competition model

Objectives The first purpose of this thesis is to test the performance of the Lotka – Volterra Competition model in forecasting demand for technologies. Secondly, the paper aims to determine the interrelationship between the markets and their expected behaviors based on population theories. Thirdly, it attempts to gauge the similarities and differences of market behaviors in the most developed economies based on GDPpc as of October 2018. Summary Total annual subscription for each market was used to perform in-sample forecasts. Parameterization was obtained using the Gauss-Newton non-linear least squares method with the Marquardt algorithm. Then, the stable equilibria were shown in the interactive outcome graphs, which indicate that the theoretical suggestions are well-supported by historical market patterns. Conclusions The results indicate high fitting performance (R-squares>0.98) with estimated data close to that of actual observations. Despite data complications, the model has a good degree of accuracy. The competitive relationships for the US, the EU, and China are suggested to be amensalism, amensalism, and pure competition, respectively. The equilibrium analyses show that in all scenarios, the mobile cellular market dominates the fixed-line phone market. Over time, mobile phones will substitute fixed – line phones and obtain maximum growth

Development of demand forecasting model for new product

Forecasting new product sales or service is a critical process in marketing strategies and product performance for an organisation. There are several methods to forecast new product sales or service and the common method used in industry nowadays is Bass Diffusion Model. Since the development of the Bass Diffusion Model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. This research uses basic Bass Diffusion Model and the model is modified to analyse and forecast the vehicle demand in Malaysia. The objective of the proposed model is to represent the level of spread for the demands of new cars in the society in terms of a simple mathematical function. Since the amounts of available data are limited, a modified Bass Diffusion Model is developed to forecast the demand of new products. The selections of analogous product, parameter estimation method and different value potential market are discussed. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model is presented and the parameters of the model are estimated. The results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation show that the modified Bass Diffusion Model is robust and effective to forecast the demand of new product sales. This research concludes that the proposed modified Bass Diffusion Model has significantly contributed to forecast the level of spread for new product

A socio-technical investigation into the electrical end use patterns of information, communication and entertainment technologies in UK homes.

Information, communication and entertainment (ICE) appliances are consumer electronics and information and communication technologies (ICT). Forecasts suggest that ICE appliance use will soon become the most significant domestic electricity end-use in the UK. Knowledge concerning “real world” ICE electricity consumption is currently limited and it has been suggested that this deficiency could lead to ineffective policy programmes. This socio-technical study measured ICE appliance electricity consumption in fourteen UK households’ and undertook household interviews to explore the behavioural factors that influenced the measurements recorded. The interviews were informed by two social psychology theories: (i) Triandis’ (1977) Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour (TIB); (ii) Rogers’ (2003) Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DIT). The study supports the position that ICE appliance use and standby power consumption are significant electricity end-uses in UK homes. Key appliances that contributed to the sample’s average electricity consumption are identified. Inconspicuous electricity consumption from network appliances is an issue of particular concern due to policy gaps. The interviews found that a range of internal and external factors influenced ICE appliance use. Behavioural intentions and habits were found to be facilitated or impeded by personal ability, knowledge and physical constraints. Social structures and expectations also supported the more expansive ownership and use of ICE appliances and energy consumption was an issue largely excluded from adoption decisions. The findings imply that a multifaceted approach is required to reduce household ICE appliance electricity consumption. This study supports the recent implementation of minimum energy performance standards and provides further recommendations that include: (i) improved product design; (ii) the expansion of mandatory energy labelling; (iii) improved electricity consumption feedback in UK homes; (iv) the use of behaviour change campaigns; (v) the integration of ICE appliance energy saving objectives into UK policies

High definition systems in Japan

The successful implementation of a strategy to produce high-definition systems within the Japanese economy will favorably affect the fundamental competitiveness of Japan relative to the rest of the world. The development of an infrastructure necessary to support high-definition products and systems in that country involves major commitments of engineering resources, plants and equipment, educational programs and funding. The results of these efforts appear to affect virtually every aspect of the Japanese industrial complex. The results of assessments of the current progress of Japan toward the development of high-definition products and systems are presented. The assessments are based on the findings of a panel of U.S. experts made up of individuals from U.S. academia and industry, and derived from a study of the Japanese literature combined with visits to the primary relevant industrial laboratories and development agencies in Japan. Specific coverage includes an evaluation of progress in R&D for high-definition television (HDTV) displays that are evolving in Japan; high-definition standards and equipment development; Japanese intentions for the use of HDTV; economic evaluation of Japan's public policy initiatives in support of high-definition systems; management analysis of Japan's strategy of leverage with respect to high-definition products and systems

Platform-based design, test and fast verification flow for mixed-signal systems on chip

This research is providing methodologies to enhance the design phase from architectural space exploration and system study to verification of the whole mixed-signal system. At the beginning of the work, some innovative digital IPs have been designed to develop efficient signal conditioning for sensor systems on-chip that has been included in commercial products. After this phase, the main focus has been addressed to the creation of a re-usable and versatile test of the device after the tape-out which is close to become one of the major cost factor for ICs companies, strongly linking it to model’s test-benches to avoid re-design phases and multi-environment scenarios, producing a very effective approach to a single, fast and reliable multi-level verification environment. All these works generated different publications in scientific literature. The compound scenario concerning the development of sensor systems is presented in Chapter 1, together with an overview of the related market with a particular focus on the latest MEMS and MOEMS technology devices, and their applications in various segments. Chapter 2 introduces the state of the art for sensor interfaces: the generic sensor interface concept (based on sharing the same electronics among similar applications achieving cost saving at the expense of area and performance loss) versus the Platform Based Design methodology, which overcomes the drawbacks of the classic solution by keeping the generality at the highest design layers and customizing the platform for a target sensor achieving optimized performances. An evolution of Platform Based Design achieved by implementation into silicon of the ISIF (Intelligent Sensor InterFace) platform is therefore presented. ISIF is a highly configurable mixed-signal chip which allows designers to perform an effective design space exploration and to evaluate directly on silicon the system performances avoiding the critical and time consuming analysis required by standard platform based approach. In chapter 3 we describe the design of a smart sensor interface for conditioning next generation MOEMS. The adoption of a new, high performance and high integrated technology allow us to integrate not only a versatile platform but also a powerful ARM processor and various IPs providing the possibility to use the platform not only as a conditioning platform but also as a processing unit for the application. In this chapter a description of the various blocks is given, with a particular emphasis on the IP developed in order to grant the highest grade of flexibility with the minimum area occupation. The architectural space evaluation and the application prototyping with ISIF has enabled an effective, rapid and low risk development of a new high performance platform achieving a flexible sensor system for MEMS and MOEMS monitoring and conditioning. The platform has been design to cover very challenging test-benches, like a laser-based projector device. In this way the platform will not only be able to effectively handle the sensor but also all the system that can be built around it, reducing the needed for further electronics and resulting in an efficient test bench for the algorithm developed to drive the system. The high costs in ASIC development are mainly related to re-design phases because of missing complete top-level tests. Analog and digital parts design flows are separately verified. Starting from these considerations, in the last chapter a complete test environment for complex mixed-signal chips is presented. A semi-automatic VHDL-AMS flow to provide totally matching top-level is described and then, an evolution for fast self-checking test development for both model and real chip verification is proposed. By the introduction of a Python interface, the designer can easily perform interactive tests to cover all the features verification (e.g. calibration and trimming) into the design phase and check them all with the same environment on the real chip after the tape-out. This strategy has been tested on a consumer 3D-gyro for consumer application, in collaboration with SensorDynamics AG

Future visioning system for designing and developing new product concepts in the consumer electronics industries

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis discusses development of a future visioning system model that can be adopted to create new product concepts for consumer electronics companies operating in a highly competitive business environment. The research work investigates consumer electronic product companies and their market environment to identify problematic issues and indicates that a proactive new product strategy which opens new markets through developing concept-led products is a strategic priority, thus the concept development stage in new product development process is in need of improvement. An evaluation of existing concept development tools for the purpose of proactive product strategy is presented and concludes that future visioning procedure is the most appropriate tool. To develop a future visioning system model as a concept development tool, the theoretical future visioning system models are analysed and mapped to extract essential structure and contents of future visioning procedure. The consequent future visioning system model is then revised according to the findings and suggestions from the field research work which investigated four major consumer electronics product companies in practice. The findings also validates the necessity of adopting a proactive product strategy and evaluates acceptability of the future visioning system model for practical use. The final future visioning system model is defined after the opinions of the design managers are considered and applied. The major suggestions from the research findings are: (1) Executing proactive product strategy can be a valuable strategic tool (2) A new process is necessary for the companies to create one-step-ahead product (3) Future visioning system is recommended as an advanced approach that creates new product concept. (4) Future visioning system model should consist of eight stages: project initiation, environmental scanning, future visioning, generating product concepts, scenario planning, concept testing, concept visualisation, and finalized concepts. (5) Product concepts can be generated from future vision by applying backcasting. (6) Scenario planning should be used in the future visioning system model as a concept testing tool providing objective validating criteria. (7) Executing a future visioning system model creates new roles for the designer such as information integrator, process moderator, and futurist

Predicting Technical Value Of Technologies Through Their Knowledge Structure

This thesis tests the hypothesis that the characteristics displayed by the knowledge structure of a high technical value invention is different from that of a low technical value invention. The knowledge structure crystalizes at the inception of the invention making it ideal for evaluating new inventions. More specifically, this research investigates two characteristics of the knowledge structure: knowledge accumulation and knowledge appropriation. Knowledge accumulation is defined as the collective body of knowledge gathered in a sector over time that has contributed to the creation of the invention. A higher degree of accumulated knowledge is more likely to be associated with high technical value inventions. Knowledge appropriation describes absorption of knowledge in the creation of the invention. From knowledge structure perspective knowledge absorption is observed by the emergence of edges that connect knowledge elements together. The robustness of this emergent knowledge structure is thus an indicator of the amount of knowledge appropriated by the invention. This research introduces a new metric for the measurement of knowledge accumulation and presents structural robustness as an indicator of knowledge appropriation. Knowledge accumulation and knowledge appropriation are hypothesized to be positively correlated with the technical value of the invention. This research tests the hypotheses by examining the citation networks of patents in four sectors: thin film photovoltaics, inductive vibration energy harvesting, piezoelectric energy harvesting, and carbon nanotubes. In total 152 base inventions and over 4000 patents are investigated. This research shows that knowledge accumulation is a significant predictor of the technical value of an invention and that high value inventions show a higher level of knowledge appropriation

Essays on Forecasting Demand and Preferences for Cars in Emerging Markets: The Case for China.

The emerging markets (EMs) have been increasingly important in the global economy, especially during the recession. These markets have different characteristics from the developed markets such as high level of market heterogeneity (Burgess & Steenkamp, 2006; Sheth, 2011). This thesis explores how to forecast the demand for cars in a market context that has been experiencing significant and fast growth. Car sales in 2002 were only 1.25 million units in China, while the figure increased to 11.27 million by 2010. Research on car market demand in developed economies is well established, but little attention has been paid to the emerging car markets and the challenges that researchers face when they have to predict the demand or preferences for cars in the EMs. By using the Chinese car market as the market context, this thesis explores how to tackle specific problems associated with forecasting the demand for cars in an emerging market. The thesis contributes to the literature in the following ways. We apply some of the well-known techniques that have been applied in other domains and assess how they fare in predicting the demand and preferences for cars in a new market context. We also take into account that preferences and the way in which consumers make choices in some markets may require a different methodological approach. We demonstrate the importance of understanding local consumer behaviour when it comes to not only collecting the data but we also show that this may mean that we have to modify or reject some of the approaches that have been used in more mature markets. The thesis also proposes novel modelling approaches that are inspired by the specific problems of predicting car demand in China, but these proposed methods can also be replicated and tested for other products in other new emerging market economies